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You may have already seen my deep-league draft targets at wide receiver and quarterback. We can't forget the most glamorous of all positions - the tight end!
I define a deep league as one in which at least 16 teams take part. That means each draft round would consist of 16 picks and there would be 240 (15 rounds multiplied by 16 teams) players drafted overall. So for this exercise, I will be looking at players with ADPs over 240 using a dataset comprised of data from drafts based on leagues with such structure. The data comes from PPR-format leagues, and whenever I mention stats, projections, and fantasy points, those would all be spoken of on the basis of that format.
Here is a look at four tight ends that can be considered sleepers in super deep, 16+ team leagues. Keep an eye on them and track their presence on the draft board as they can become interesting pieces down the road during the development of the 2021 season!
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Jordan Akins, Houston Texans
ADP: 301
It took Darren Fells six seasons and three changes of scenery to finally score more than 70 FP over a full season, which he did in his first campaign as a Texan back in 2019 (110 FP in 16 games played and a TE17 finish). Entering 2021, the Houston Texans will feature Fells no more with Jordan Akins taking on the clear TE1 role all by himself. Even sharing the field with Fells the past two years, Akins was able to finish TE25 and TE26 in those years with 89.8 and 83.7 FP in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
With Fells now out of Houston and leaving 28 targets, 312 yards, and four touchdowns on the table, everything looks good for Akins to bump up his counting stats more than a bit. The quarterback situation is shaky, can't lie about that. Mighty QB Deshaun Watson may miss the whole season, which would undoubtedly cut Akins' upside. That being said, though, I can count with half a hand the number of players projected (via PFF) to more FP than Akins while having a lower ADP: Randall Cobb and Hunter Renfrow. That's it.
Fells' 118+ FP projection comes from a 71/51/521/3 stat line. That should be the baseline with upside for more if Akins keeps developing as a player in his fourth season, which would be perfectly possible. Also, he played only 13 games last season, so it's not that he shouldn't get more chances over a full 17-game campaign if he can stay out there on the field more than he was able to in 2020.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 243
Last season was a forgettable one for Tommy Sweeney, who couldn't even make it to the field due to COVID-19-related issues. He will be back this season, along with FA addition Jacob Hollister and TE1 Dawson Knox. That looks like a whole lot of players for a one-man position, but the truth is that there is a clear honcho manning this bunch: Knox, and it's not even close.
While Knox had quite a rough start to the 2020 campaign, not finishing inside the TE2 group of players in any game from Week 1 to Week 11, he then played five consecutive matches getting into that realm with a couple of TE1 finishes (12.7 PPR-points in Week 13 and 11.6 in Week 15). Knox is definitely not a league-winning tight end in shallow formats, he shares the field with unbelievable wideouts that will never allow him to rack up targets (Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Stefon Diggs...), and has a QB throwing to him that has enough legs to lower the number of passes he needs to attempt per game.
All of that might look bad but, again, consider that Knox is pretty much the only viable option at the position in Buffalo and one of the clear go-to TEs with a low-enough ADP to make the cut while projecting to 115+ FP in 2021. As with Jordan Akins (read above), we're looking at a potential top-24 tight end in Knox, which would be good for a borderline TE2 finish in 12-team leagues and an even better mid-to-high-end TE2 in 16-team formats.
Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 266
I had an internal debate about who to include in this column, either Mo Alie-Cox or C.J. Uzomah. Both TEs project to 92 FP in PFF's numbers, have ADPs of 266 and 296 respectively, and face an uphill battle of some sort when it comes to getting opportunities in their offenses for different reasons. On the Colts, Indy is putting 2020-washed Carson Wentz in the pocket (bad) while the receiving corps features a viable TE2 in Jack Doyle (also bad). On the Bengals, QB Joe Burrow looked great as a rookie (good) but he missed time injured and the wideouts in Cincy are absolutely insane and should eat more than a fair share (bad), leaving just crumbs for the tight ends.
It's a toss-up, but I would still draft MAC even if he comes at a slightly higher price. Alie-Cox finally hit the ground running in 2020, playing 15+ games for the second straight season and putting up career-high numbers in targets (39), receptions (31), receiving yards (394), and touchdowns (two). He should see an uptick in all of those categories as it's not that Indianapolis has a bevy of wide receivers, addressed that or the TE position, nor downgraded at quarterback (as bad as Wentz did look last year, Philip Rivers was worse).
There is a risk involving this pick with Jack Doyle lurking around. Alie-Cox projects to 92 FP compared to Doyle's 85 FP, and both of them are expected to see an equal share of targets (48 each) and score three touchdowns over the year for a combined six touchdowns in 17 games. If Alie-Cox is able to swing the balance his way and finishes getting a 2:1 share of the opportunities, then he might be able to finish the year with around 115-130 FP, much more palatable if you ask me. That mark would put him in the TE2 realm in shallow formats and make him a clear TE2 in deeper formats. Here's hoping he does it.
Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears
ADP: 300
It should be Cole Kmet's time in Chicago, but are we sure Jimmy Graham is going anywhere? Seriously? Jimmy is infinite, folks, and he just never quits--or rather, his teams never forget about him for some reason. Entering his age-35 season, Graham has not gone for fewer than 100 FP in any of his pro seasons other than in his rookie year (and even then he racked up 97 FP).
While Graham's production has clearly gone down a ton in the past three years (from 10.7 FPPG in 2017 and a TE6 finish to just 7.8 FPPG and a TE15 average finish since 2018), the truth is that Graham keeps getting opportunities and racking up counting stats on a yearly basis. That's why even on low average FPPG, he still is a valuable play these days. Graham is a golden-touch TE, which means he gets targeted in the end zone a ton and the main reason why he scored eight touchdowns last season after logging the sixth-most RZ Targets per Game at the position with a 1.3 mark.
Graham didn't get a ton of targets (4.8 per game) but with more than 25% of those coming in the RZ, he's always a threat to score and get some tasty fantasy points. Kmet should be the Bears' TE1 and that's how PFF sees him, but Graham still projects to a healthy 87 FP and a borderline TE2 finish in 16-team leagues even on that secondary role.
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