RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~30 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~42
ANALYSIS: People are underestimating Baker Mayfield. We forget that he played the majority of 2021 with a torn shoulder labrum that frequently became dislocated.
Not only that, but Kareem Hunt missed nine games, Jarvis Landry missed four, and Odell Beckham Jr. only played six games before being released. His leading receiver was Donovan Peoples-Jones with 597 yards. Some of that was his fault to be sure, but he was dealing with a bad and banged-up group of pass-catchers and a nasty shoulder injury.
It's fairly reasonable to have expected some struggles all things considered. We forget, however, that he threw 26 touchdowns in 2020 and just eight interceptions. We forget he set the then record for most touchdowns by a rookie in a single season with 27 despite only starting 13 games. This isn't to say that Mayfield is a stud or some kind of elite quarterback, he's not, but he's better than he was in 2021.
Each of the last three seasons DJ Moore has had over 1,100 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He had 163 targets last year and there's no reason not to expect Moore to command a high target share again.
Mayfield's career TD rate is much better than Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Darnold and could finally unlock Moore's TD potential.
If you're worried about Christian McCaffrey's return – don't be – the Panthers running backs had 135 targets last year, which is plenty for CMC to soak up.
If we give Moore a slight decrease down to 150 and then work off of his career averages, he'd finish with 90 receptions and 1,296 receiving yards. Now, the fun starts.
If we give Moore a 4% TD rate, he'd have six touchdowns. 5% would be 7.5 touchdowns. 6% is nine touchdowns. Even with just six touchdowns, he'd finish with 210.6 half-PPR points. That's more points than Mike Williams had last year and he finished at WR10. Don't sleep on DJ Moore!
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