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This past summer, the good basketball fans of Indiana were stunned to hear their superstar player, Paul George, was departing for greener pastures in Oklahoma City. They were even more shocked to learn that they would be getting back Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis in return. This new team, on paper, looked to scrape the bottom of the league in wins with the team restructuring around Myles Turner as their focal point.
Fast forward to the present: Victor Oladipo is a first time All-Star and the Pacers are 6th in the league, a mere two games back from the Cleveland Cavaliers. The George trade looks less lopsided now, and Pacers fans have all taken a collective sigh of relief… But the second piece to the trade, Sabonis, hasn’t received the proper dues for the work he has put in.
Today I will be talking about Sabonis and his changed role on his new team. In his rookie season, Sabonis was overshadowed along with the rest of his Thunder teammates by the triple-double king, Russell Westbrook. In Indiana, Sabonis is being used in all the right ways and has shown his prowess as a productive big man for the Pacers. Let’s dig in to Sabonis’s sophomore leap.
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The Rise of Sabonis
Sabonis is currently averaging 25.6 minutes per game, with 12.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. He is also averaging 0.2 threes, 0.4 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 2 turnovers per game. His shooting averages are 53.8%/36%/73.2%. Fun Fact: He's averaging almost identical numbers as his Hall of Fame father’s career stats (12/7.3/2.1 on 50/32.8/78.6 shooting). These statistics put Sabonis at rank 132 over the season, which is seemingly unimpressive. However, we need to look at the changes that Sabonis has created in his game. His future outlook is more important than his current numbers.
Previously in OKC, Sabonis averaged 20.1 minutes per game, 5.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1 assist. His other stat averages were 0.6 threes, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 1 turnover. All his shooting splits have improved from his previous season, which he shot at 39.9/32.1/65.7. His usage rate has shot up from 15.5% to 22.6%. He now puts up an average of 9.3 shots per game versus 5.9 shots per game last season. His shot selection has changed dramatically; last year, he was putting up a large number of three-pointers (33.1% of his shots) while only taking 28.3% of his shots from within 3 feet of the basket. This season, he is taking 49.1% of his shots from 0-3 feet of the basket, buffering his points and field goal percentage value!
A surprising change is that Sabonis is also averaging 3.3 free throw attempts per game, and his decreased three-point attempts means that his shooting percentage in that area is basically a non-factor. See Sabonis’s shot chart below.
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While Sabonis is putting up solid value in the categories of points, rebounds, and field goal percentage, a big question for fantasy managers is, “How will Sabonis fare long-term with Myles Turner, who has missed a lot of time due to injury?” Turner is supposed to be the star center of the future for Indiana, yet Sabonis plays his most natural role at the 5 spot. In the first half of the season, there has been inconclusive evidence to show that they will share the floor well together.
Let’s dig into some of the data. In the 322 minutes with the starting line-up of Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young, and Sabonis at the center, the team sports a net rating of 13.9. Switch in Turner for Sabonis, and, in 449 minutes, that five-man lineup produces a -0.5 net rating. Sabonis and Turner have shared 178 minutes on the court together this season, producing a -2.3 net rating. When Sabonis shares the floor with Young, they produce a 6.9 net rating with a drastic increase in defensive rating. While Turner is paired with Young, they produce a 4.8 net rating. The statistics show that Turner is more suited for his offensive ability and he has negatively impacted the overall team defense compared to Sabonis.
Turner is part of a new regime of big men (unicorns) and his role is markedly different than Sabonis’s role. Think of Turner more like Kristaps Porzingis except with worse points and three-point value. Turner spaces the floor well, and is great at producing blocks, but he has not shown an affinity as a rebounding, back to the basket player. Although it may be a stretch in a small ball age, the Pacers might attempt to put a lineup of Collison, Oladipo, Young, Sabonis, and Turner on the court. They almost have no shared minutes together as Nate McMillan would rather have Sabonis come off the bench for Turner, and Young may be too big to guard 3s. But, with Young and Sabonis anchoring the defense, it might allow for more scoring and diversity.
Turner has missed a lot of time due to injury; he’s only played in 36 out of 51 games this season, which has allowed for Sabonis to showcase his skills. Sabonis leads the team in rebounds. Even with Turner off the floor, his rebounds per 100 possessions only jumps from 16.8, when both Turner and Sabonis are on the court, to 17.2 when Turner is off. Assuming the willingness to play Turner and Sabonis together, Sabonis has shown that his effective field goal percentage is still high when Turner is on the court (54.6%) compared to when Turner is off the court (55.3%). Sabonis is still a strong hold in his valuable categories with Turner making a reappearance. Expect Sabonis to be a 7th/8th round player with strong value in rebounds and field goal percentage. He has the potential to provide a double-double in points and rebounds on good nights. Turner is still going through game-time decision calls on his elbow, meaning that this estimate is the worst he could be. In conclusion, hold tight to Sabonis as he is providing better value than his pre-draft rank, and he’s a good grab if you’ve been impaired by the injury-ridden NBA season.
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