RADIO
Regardless of expert consensus, every year there are a slew of top ranked players that underperform. The question half way through the year is, who’s going to rebound, and who’s going to fall flat?
Paint me optimistic today, but there’s a lot of the season left, and opportunities abound. I expect many of the following players are in for a positive regression to the mean.
Here are some second half rebound candidates for 2017 to target in your league via free agent add or trade.
Quarterbacks and Supporting Cast
Underperformers: Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton
Roethlisberger and Bryant’s success is tied together
- The Steelers have a tough schedule, but the latter half is a good bit more forgiving than the first stretch. There are four games remaining in their schedule against bottom-10 defenses. Roethlisberger’s best game of the year from a QBR perspective (104.8) was Bryant’s best week (91 yards, 1 TD). Roethlisberger has only thrown for one 300-yard game this year. He’s on track for only 2 this year, while in 2016 he had 4; but in 2015 he threw for 300 yards 7 times. 2015 was also the last year that Martavis Bryant was active on the Steelers, if Bryant works himself back into favor with Roethlisberger they can regain their 2015 form, saving both of their fantasy seasons.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are a second half team
- The Seahawks have one of the easier remaining schedules in the NFL, with six matchups against bottom ranked defensive teams. Both Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin have already rated above 82 this year according to profootballfocus. If the offensive line can improve at all, the superior play of these two should be able to lift the rest of the team, producing more opportunities for both. For the last three years Doug Baldwin has had a substantial uptick in production starting after week ten, this is likely to begin faster this year due to the relative ease of their schedule. Furthermore, Baldwin plays a significant number of snaps from the slot, avoiding strong defensive matchups, like in week seven’s matchup against the Giants and Janoris Jenkins. Many of the elite competition may pass Baldwin over to focus instead on the Seahawks conventional outside wideouts.
The writing is on the wall: Carr and Cooper will pick it up
- Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, had a huge comeback game and the talent is obvious. The return to the mean has likely started and the big games are ahead. One should be hesitant to expect wide receiver 1 production every week though. Cooper needs a significant target share to be successful, in weeks 1 and 7 he commanded 36.5 and 40.6 percent respectively. Those were both of his fantasy viable weeks. Cooper’s efficiency has left something to be desired; but after this win, the offense may start leaning more on the pass. This could bring both Cooper and Carr back into WR/QB1 territory. The Raiders alternate tough and easy defensive matchups for the rest of the year. The production could be sporadic, but is perhaps the most explosive.
Wide Receivers
Underperformers: Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Terrelle Pryor, Martavis Bryant, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas.
Michael Thomas, the quiet producer
- Michael Thomas has caught nearly two-thirds of the passes thrown his way, and has had only two games this year under five receptions and 80 yards. With Snead continually injured, Thomas maintains his position in the number one wide receiver position. Thomas is likely to improve his performance as the season proceeds, but even if he maintains his current trajectory, he would end with over 1000 yards and seven touchdowns. The Saints also have Tampa Bay in their schedule who currently allow the most yards to wide receiver.
Last man left, Demaryius Thomas
- After a number of poor performances, Demaryius Thomas burst back onto the scene with 14 targets, 10 receptions, and 133 yards against the Giants. Janoris Jenkins was often covering DT as well. Even with that elite coverage, Trevor Siemian found Thomas time and time again as the only steady weapon last week. Much of this extra attention is due to Sanders going down, but as Sanders lays dormant on the sideline, Siemian can develop his rapport with Thomas. Last year with Siemian at the helm, DT amassed over 1,000 yards and five touchdowns. There’s no reason he can’t do it again, especially considering the rest of the Broncos divisional foes are allowing passing yards left and right.
Running Backs
Underperformers: Jay Ajayi, DeMarco Murray, Isaiah Crowell, Joe Mixon, Bilal Powell, LeSean McCoy, Ezekiel Elliott
When Bilal Powell is healthy and used as a runner, he has huge games
- Jets are willing to get him involved with a hefty number of carries and plenty of targets to keep him healthy. Neither Elijah McGuire or Matt Forte have been good enough to dig too far into his hold on the lead back position. Powell has an exceedingly easy schedule, and the Jets have been better than expected, so running the ball is still an option. When given a legitimate number of carries this season (15 or more) Powell has at least converted that opportunity into a touchdown each game, and in his 21-carry game he ran for 163 yards at 7.76 a carry. Powell averaged over six yards a carry last year and has continued to show the ability to reproduce those figures.
LeSean McCoy has the benefit of addition through subtraction
- McCoy and the Bills benefit from another easy second-half schedule. Out of the five games that McCoy has played, three have been against top-10 rush defenses. As the Bills play the rest of their divisional matchups, McCoy will be afforded opportunity after opportunity to feast. Positive regression is very likely with McCoy, as Zay Jones has yet to find a way to capitalize on his increased target share, and former target leader Charles Clay is down for an extended period of time. Not only does this require the offense to be funneled through McCoy, Taylor’s ability to run the zone read increases the mental load on any defenders trying to deal with Shady.
Tight Ends
Underperformers: Jordan Reed, Jimmy Graham, Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron
Jordan Reed’s rough journey begins to lighten up
- The Washington football team no longer plays a team that has produced top half defensive games against tight ends. Jordan Reed hasn’t attracted the same target share that he usually commands thus far, but I believe this is largely due to lingering injuries, and defenses that have figured out how to contain tight ends. As he heals, he’ll be a bigger part of the offense, especially since the defense isn’t elite and there will be ample opportunity to keep up in higher scoring affairs. With the emergence of Chris Thompson and a banged-up defense, one can easily conclude that Washington will be passing early and often in most games, giving Reed the chance he needs to be the chain moving, red-zone threat that he has been for a number of years.
Someone has to produce in Indy; if not Moncrief then Doyle
- Jack Doyle seems to be healthy and Donte Moncrief is playing poorly, being unable to haul in the crucial red-zone targets. Doyle is in a prime position to continue his play from Week 6, becoming the Colts primary end zone target. The Colts' remaining schedule is very difficult, but the bright side is that it’s better than it looks for tight ends. Many of the best teams in the league at defending the pass often allow the tight ends to float under their radar. As the wide receivers are shut down, Doyle can roam over the middle of the field and under the higher-positioned defensive backs to play a central role leading to a 10+ target upside (11 in week 6) on a week to week basis. He's disappointed those who had him pegged as a sleeper early in the season, but his best could be yet to come.
