Draft Targets and Avoids from High-Stakes Fantasy Football Leagues - FFPC ADP Insights

We are grateful to every one of you who comes to RotoBaller for our advice. Fantasy football players always want to get other viewpoints on their draft targets, and also like to consult fantasy analysts who spend a lot of time uncovering guys to favor and fade. We are a source of confirmation for those who are seeking it, and we also do the extra work for you as a go-to source of news, advice, and analysis.

Yet high-stakes fantasy football participants dig just as deep on players and projections as we do, so we feature who they prefer and may steer clear of to further spotlight their evaluations. Here are our latest takes on Average Draft Position trends in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). We focus on ADPs in the FFPC Main Event, which are provided courtesy of fantasymojo.com,  a prime destination for FFPC data.

We have shared some of the most interesting player trends from FFPC Main Event drafts in mid-August.  Do keep in mind that FFPC scoring adds a half-point per reception for tight ends, so that does affect their overall ADPs a bit, but the player values we highlight do fall in correct alignment from positional perspectives. You can also consult more FFPC ADP reports here.

RB FFPC ADPs: The Latest Observations With Our Reactions

Saquon Barkley (FFPC ADP of Round 1, Pick 10):

Barkley has shot up the draft boards to RB5 due to a lot of recent positive reports and speculation about how high his ceiling can still be. It is not crazy to think that a healthy Barkley could still finish among the very best running backs in fantasy football. So taking him in the top 5 at the position is an aggressive high stakes type of move that can pay off.

I don’t have Barkley ranked quite as high as the ADPs indicate (11^th at RB) because his last outstanding season was in 2018. But if you want to make a possible league-winning move to take Barkley at his current FFPC ADP, I can see the case for it. In a high-stakes environment, he could still be a potential difference-making force.

Alvin Kamara (2/9):

Kamara is currently the 12^th RB off the boards as some are obviously still wary of a possible suspension, or may be concerned that he won’t be the same type of prolific pass-catcher he was during the Drew Brees era. The latter is more of a factor to me than the former, but Jameis Winston knows what he has in Kamara and should take frequent advantage of his skills. He learned behind Brees and from Sean Payton, who made the best possible use of Kamara’s abilities. Kamara can still be a top 5 RB and I would take advantage of the possible discount as soon as the end of the first round.

Tony Pollard (6/6):

There is obviously a lot of optimism surrounding Pollard as many fantasy players expect the Ezekiel Elliott fade to continue while Pollard rises. But I think drafting Pollard just outside the top 20 at RB is a little too aggressive for my tastes. I don’t expect Elliott to fall off enough this year to the point where Pollard can be a consistently productive fantasy player. Some spike weeks would not surprise me, but I don’t have him inside my top 40 RBs.

This was a filthy spin move by Chase Edmonds to pick up the 1st down? pic.twitter.com/68Ckk5ozsZ

— King of Phinland?? (@KingOfPhinland) August 20, 2022

Chase Edmonds (7/8):

He is one of my preferred RB value plays right now. I am getting Edmonds as an RB3 in many drafts and like the potential heavy discount. He should be the most productive fantasy RB for Miami, as Edmonds is versatile with big-play promise.

Damien Harris (9/12):

His appeal is falling while Rhamondre Stevenson’s is rising to the point where he is being drafted two rounds ahead of Harris. But I won’t overlook the possible value on Harris, either. If he stays with the Patriots, Harris can still play a notable role in the New England offense, and if he is traded, he could leap onto a significant depth chart spot on another team. I am not forgetting that Harris rushed for 15 TDs last season.

Brian Robinson (11/12):

Rookie RBs can often turn out to be nifty bargain picks. Robinson may be a significant performer and frequent goal-line option for Washington. While Antonio Gibson’s stock is tumbling, Robinson’s will be rising.

WR FFPC ADPs: The Latest Observations With Our Reactions

Michael Pittman Jr. (3/3):

Pittman is trending upwards on draft boards as the projected No. 1 WR for Matt Ryan. He may not be a superstar QB anymore, but Ryan should still be quite good and will be the best passer Pittman has worked with in his career so far. Ryan was notorious for not throwing more 50/50 balls to Julio Jones, so a limited ceiling on Pittman’s TD output might be my only minor concern.

Jaylen Waddle (4/2):

Expectations on Waddle seemed to be lowered a bit after the arrival of Tyreek Hill in Miami, but he should benefit from the heavy defensive attention Hill will command. Waddle could be very comfortable as a No. 2 WR in the Dolphins' offense and he already has an established rapport with Tua Tagovailoa, so I like getting him by this point of the draft.

Diontae Johnson (4/10):

Johnson is viewed as having little to no upside because of the Pittsburgh QB situation, but it wasn’t too good last year and he finished seventh in Fantasy Points Per Game (17.5) at wide receiver after 17 weeks.

DK Metcalf (5/6):

The negative narratives on the Seahawks are now building to the point where Metcalf is being taken outside the top 25 at WR. That makes him a potential value. Sure, the Seattle QB situation is a major concern, but it may be getting overblown in terms of lowering the outlook for Metcalf. He is still a supremely talented wideout who will be a prime playmaker on his team’s offense, in any sort of game script. Geno Smith or Drew Lock won’t be finishing games with four or five completions.

As he does every day at practice, DK Metcalf working extra with his WRs coach Sanjay Lal, early pregame before Seahawks’ preseason game vs Bears.

Metcalf and Lal work A LOT. Hands. Footwork. Releases off the LOS. Reads. And throws. pic.twitter.com/PspvMa8Kbw

— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) August 18, 2022

Smith is actually a respectable decision-maker and Lock does throw a pretty good deep ball. We should not write Metcalf off the point where he is being drafted as a fantasy WR3. Tyler Lockett is also being drafted at the ninth pick of the 11^th round, behind Skyy Moore and Rondale Moore, which also seems a bit extreme in terms of the bump down in appeal. “Yeah Scott, but we know you are a Seahawks fan” – That would be irrelevant, as I never draft or provide fantasy analysis based on my allegiances.

Terrace Marshall Jr. (20/12):

Marshall is actually one of my favorite deeper sleepers, and he is being taken as ‘Mr. Irrelevant” in FFPC Main Event Drafts, according to the latest ADPs. Marshall is big, fast, and could be a featured end zone TD target for Carolina. Baker Mayfield can improve the Panthers’ passing game and you never know what we will get out of Robby Anderson, so Marshall could start to bust out after a disappointing rookie year.

Marshall does have to get healthy first, as he is already dealing with preseason hamstring issues that are frustrating the coaching staff. But once Marshall is back in optimum playing form, he could be a big surprise.

QB FFPC ADPs: The Latest Observations With Our Reactions

Trey Lance (8/4):

Lance’s appeal is rising even more based on how he has looked in the preseason so far and his obvious tremendous potential as a rushing QB. He is now being taken ahead of Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, and Tom Brady. That is another example of an aggressive type of high-stakes move that could be a difference-maker. Lance does have good playmakers around him to help ensure some success, but I could submit a case to go for Wilson instead, as he will be allowed to fully “cook” this season. I am also just fine with waiting two rounds later for Prescott or Brady.

Derek Carr (13/8):

Carr is playing with the best receiving crew of his career after he essentially carried the Raiders to the playoffs last year. For those who patiently wait on a QB, Carr can be the reward, as he is likely headed for a career season.

TE FFPC ADPs: The Latest Observations With Our Reactions

Albert Okwuegbunam (10/10):

Let’s remember that the FFPC is a premium scoring format, but ‘Albert O” is being drafted as a top 12 TE. Russell Wilson has never been a QB that has primarily featured a TE, and even Jimmy Graham did not meet expectations when he played with Wilson in Seattle. I will be passing on Okwuegbunam as a possible back-end fantasy TE1 target.

Austin Hooper (14/10):

I have watched Ryan Tannehill a lot before, and he will frequently look to his tight ends on key downs. Hooper is a good value in most formats, especially after the Titans lost their top WR in the offseason, and it may take a few guys to effectively lead the pass-catching crew in Tennessee. Hooper can re-emerge as a quality fantasy TE option in 2022.

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