Drafting League-Winners In Rounds 9-16

We've already run through the early rounds in Part 1 to find potential league winners in 2020 fantasy football drafts. Now, we move to the latter half of the draft.

The term "league winner" is one that is too often thrown around in fantasy football. Often it is used without even being defined. To me, a league winner can be one of two things: a player that is highly drafted but is still so much better than the rest of the field. Think of Christian McCaffrey from 2019. A league winner can also be a late-round draft pick or waiver wire pickup that goes on to become one of the best at their positions. Lamar Jackson was certainly a league-winner last season.

You can create your own definition for a league-winner if you want, but at the end of the day, we are all looking for the same thing. A player that can outlive his expected value so drastically, it changes the dynamic of your team and league. Finding these players make good teams great and make great teams into powerhouses. You can see why finding these players are so important. That is why I am on the hunt for the player with the highest league-winning upside in every single round. I will be using FFPC ADP to do so.

Round 9

Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET)

 Marvin Jones Jr. is one of the most overlooked receivers in football. I mean Jones has scored 190-or-more fantasy points in two of the last three seasons (missed seven games in 2018). He has averaged over 14 fantasy PPG in two of the past three, and over 12 per game in each. He was the WR28 last season despite playing half the season without his QB.

In 2017 he finished as the WR11. He was also the WR14 through the first nine weeks last year with a healthy Matthew Stafford. Kenny Golladay, who goes six rounds earlier, was the WR11 with Stafford. You get to draft him at his floor, maybe even well below his floor if Stafford can stay healthy. His upside is that he continues to put up top-15 WR numbers with a healthy Stafford. At this price, it is an easy decision to make and draft Marvin.

Other league winning candidates in this round: Carson Wentz, Brandin Cooks, Matt Breida

#Lions WRs numbers with Matt Stafford (Wks 1-9)

Kenny Golladay: 62 targets, 35 rec, 640 yards, 7 TD

Marvin Jones: 57 targets, 42 rec, 535 yards, 6 TD

Kenny G was WR11, Jones was WR14 in this span #FantasyFootball

— Michael Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) May 27, 2020

Round 10

Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)

Alexander Mattison is starting to climb into the eighth and ninth rounds of some drafts with the news that Dalvin Cook may threaten a holdout. If Cook was to hold out or miss time due to injury, Mattison would instantly jump into the RB1 discussion. The Vikings showed last season that they would still like to establish the run even when Cook misses time, meaning that Mattison would likely be in for a Cook type role if he became the starter.

Last year, he showed that he can play at a high level. He averaged 2.67 yards before contact per carry last season, compared to Cook’s 2.16. He also averaged a big play (15+ yards) ever 8.5 touches, compared to 10.8 for Cook. Cook did have Mattison beat averaging 2.38 yards after contact to Mattison’s 1.95.

Mattison is a strong runner on a run-first offense with a RB ahead of him that has both threatened a holdout and has never played 16 games. He may not be usable while Cook is active, but Mattison is oozing with league-winning upside if he is given a starters opportunity.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

• Matthew Stafford
• Darius Slayton
• CeeDee Lamb
• Daniel Jones

Round 11

Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)

Much like Mattison, Pollard is not really useful unless Ezekiel Elliott misses time. But if Zeke does miss time, Pollard becomes an RB1. Pollard had double-digit touches just four times last season. In those weeks he went for 24 (first NFL game), 128, 145 and 65 yards. He showed last year that he is a difference-maker in the passing game. If Zeke was to miss time, I would expect Pollard to get most, if not all, of the Zeke workload. He would be getting that workload surrounded by great weapons as the Cowboys sport one of the best offenses in football.

In 2020, we are likely to see more volatility than ever. I mean, Zeke has already been diagnosed with COVID-19. Not saying it will affect him at all this season, but in a year with so many unknowns, I think there is more value in these backup RBs than in a normal season. Just like Mattison, Pollard can’t be trusted if Elliott is active, but he is dripping with league-winning potential.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

• Mecole Hardman
• Zack Moss
• Duke Johnson

Round 12

Anthony Miller (WR, CHI)

You may have been okay with one Bears receiver making this list… but two?!? Yeah, I am really high on Anthony Miller and Robinson this season. Remember how I said the Bears QBs love to throw to the slot? Well Miller averaged a team-high 21.5 slot routes per game last season. In fact, Miller was the WR8 from Weeks 11-15 last season. His biggest competition to be the second target on the Bears is… Tarik Cohen.

Don’t overlook what the departure of Taylor Gabriel means for Miller. Last season, Gabriel was averaging 5.3 targets per game… the same number as Miller. He’s shown lots of flashes throughout his first two seasons, but this year he has a chance to actually see consistent volume in this offense. I really like Miller as a year three breakout pick and all it costs on average is a round-12 pick. Jump all over it!

Other league winning candidates in this round: Jalen Reagor

Round 13

Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)

Noticing a trend? Edmonds possesses just as much upside as Mattison and Pollard, but he is going multiple rounds later. It’s ok, take the discount and run! Last year in the one game Edmonds started and stayed healthy he dropped 35 fantasy points. That was the game the Cardinals tweeted that people should have started Edmonds in fantasy, and everyone lost their minds!

And remember what I said about Drake: Last season Cardinals RBs averaged 0.75 fantasy points per touch, that was the second-most in the NFL behind only the Panthers (cause, CMC). Cardinal backs also averaged 1.66 fantasy points per target, the ninth-best in the NFL. You want whoever starts in this backfield. If Drake goes down, Edmonds will be an RB1.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

• Preston Williams
• Justin Jefferson

Round 14

DeSean Jackson (WR, PHI)

I debated hard between Jackson and Perriman, but I’ve previously written about Perriman so I decided to go with DJax. Jackson was healthy for really only Week 1 last season, but in that game, he was targeted nine times, catching eight for 154 yards and two scores. He dropped 35 fantasy points in Week 1 and ran seven routes the rest of the season. That is the downside with Jackson, he can get injured at any point and be lost for the season. But in round 14? That is NOTHING but upside.

We’ve also heard that he is the Eagles number one receiver heading into the season and that is not hard to believe. He will have to compete with Jalen Reagor, who I like a lot but he will likely be behind Jackson early on, Alshon Jeffery, who may have nothing left in the tank, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Marquise Goodwin and Greg Ward. Draft Jackson late and if he gets hurt, you cut bait. If he stays healthy, he very well can be a WR3 with sky-high upside every time he steps on the field.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

• Breshad Perriman

Round 15

Darrynton Evans (RB, TEN)

Noticing a trend? This late in drafts, the RBs who have the league winning upside are also the ones you can’t use unless the starter gets hurt. But Evans was drafted in the third round of the NFL draft to be insurance for Derrick Henry with Dion Lewis now gone. Plus, outside of Henry and Evans, there probably isn’t a back that you’ve heard of before. Henry has been durable, but if he does miss time, Evans steps in as the new top back in a run-heavy offense. He is another one of these backup RBs that has plenty of upside if he is ever given the chance.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

• Anthony McFarland Jr.

Round 16 or Later

Antonio Brown (WR, FA)

Just a reminder that no player has more league-altering upside than Antonio Brown. There are a lot of hurdles to return to the NFL, but his legal issues have been settled in court. Now Brown would need to be reinstated, sign with a team and likely serve a suspension before returning.

But even if you get just six or eight games out of him, after round 15 it is a calculated risk worth taking. None of the reasons Brown is not on a team now have to do with his talent. Is he the best WR in the league still? Probably not. But is he one of the Top 10 or 15? Yes. A 16th-round pick or later is easily worth the lottery ticket on Brown and his league winning upside.

Other league winning candidates in Round 16 or later:

• Giovani Bernard
• John Ross
• Ryquell Armstead
• Jalen Hurts

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @MichaelFFlorio.

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