RADIO
Just a five game slate this Saturday, and already there is a clear emphasis on the importance of value tonight. With plenty of super-cheap options, if you don't ride the upside, someone will. Here's a perfect example for how tonight is going to play out. Gary Harris has been struggling this season, and although he has had great games here and there, he has been the thorn in the side of a ton of DFS players, specifically this season.
With the amount of value throughout the slate, it's hard to value someone like Harris, who has posted some truly terrible games, compared to someone like Matisse Thybulle, a player with a ton of upside. While it will come with risk, playing both Harris and someone like Thybulle, can allow the rest of your roster to to consist of high-tier players you NEED to play tonight. Since we all know Harris has the ability to produce against anyone, it's time we start taking him in games where his upside is maximized. He needs the space to get open shots, and along with Jokic playing extremely well, the Cavaliers defense have hung their caps on giving opposing offenses all the comfortability they need.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 3/7/20. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before line-up lock. Find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter.
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Matthew Dellavedova - PG/SG, CLE v. DEN ($3,100)
Even though it was his highest-minute game of the season, Matthew Dellavedova fumbled the opportunity. He saw more minutes and shot attempts this game, than any other game this season, but he literally couldn't hit a shot. The bump in minutes is the effect of injuries and there should be no change to that for the next few games, but clearly there is going to be a ton of risk simply playing him. It's hard to believe he will post another dud like he did against the Celtics, and even if he fails to score, his price allows for another low-production game to have minimal impact in case he flops again. I wouldn't plan on another scoreless outing and there are few players cheaper that have Dellavedova's potential.
De'Anthony Melton - PG/SG, MEM v. ATL ($4,400)
Over the past few weeks, De'Anthony Melton has gone from a key contributor, to accepting a backseat role in the offense. The Grizzlies are still 3-3 since starting Melton, but what's important here is the change in team-dynamic. Since Melton has been getting the start, his production has had an adverse effect, while the Grizzlies as a whole, have been thriving. He is producing less against quality defenses and he is usually tasked with an increased defensive role in those games. It's understandable given his size and athleticism, but for DFS, this recent trend works in our favor. His price has seen an ideal decrease, and playing against the Hawks, a team he has produced against in the past, gives him plenty of upside. Memphis also plays the Magic, Spurs, Trail Blazers, and Jazz this week, so look for this game and the Grizzlies road game versus Portland to be the two games he actually has the chance to contribute.
Jordan McRae - PG/SG, DET v. UTA ($4,500)
In his first game with the Pistons, Jordan McRae scored 15 points on 11 shots. It was a great debut and with the amount of injuries the Pistons have in their backcourt, McRae is guaranteed another high-usage game. Both Bruce Brown and Langston Galloway are available and will play, but neither offer the same type of, inside-out offense that McRae brings to the Pistons. If he is going to see near-starter minutes in his first game, it would seem wise to take advantage of this situation before the price gets out of hand. Rudy Gobert might anchor the Jazz defense, but McRae is fearless when it comes to driving and I expect him to find ways to other ways to contribute around Gobert's paint presence.
DraftKings DFS Forwards
Harrison Barnes - SF/PF, SAC @ POR ($4,900)
Harrison Barnes might be coming off a strong month, but that doesn't mean he is slowing down his production. His usage rate has seen a slight decrease over this last week, and Barnes is still one of the Kings most consistent sources of offense. Even with his scoring going down slightly, he has increased his production elsewhere, and that alone makes this price worth it. Even though the rankings say the Trail Blazers fall in the top 15 versus opposing small forwards, anyone paying close enough attention knows that isn't the case for this current Portland team.
Glenn Robinson III - SF/PF, PHI @ GSW ($3,900)
These next two value picks go hand-in-hand. Both offer upside because of the matchups, but both have also flopped plenty of times against horrible defenses. Glenn Robinson III is the riskier pick because he gets less minutes and doesn't start, but the narrative is there for him to crush his projected score tonight. This is technically a revenge game against a team he played for earlier this season, and it's important to note that for a decent amount of time, he was the best player on that team on a nightly basis. He might not be aware of the ins-and-outs of this exact roster, but he will have confidence knowing he can score against them.
Royce O'Neale - SF, UTA @ DET ($3,800)
Although an entirely different situation with Royce O'Neale, the Pistons forwards have a top-15 defensive rank against small forwards, but rarely do they keep wing-shooters from getting shots. The Jazz have too many sources for offense, and that team-defense will only get Detroit so far in this game. They will need to find ways to stop, specifically, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, and now, a-heating-up Mike Conley. If Conley continues this hot-streak, look for O'Neale to be the main beneficiary. Normally, the better the starters play, the less upside the role players have, but O'Neale plays better when he has more spacing and the defense is forced to focus elsewhere.
DraftKings DFS Centers
Mason Plumlee - PF/C, DEN @ CLE ($3,700)
This is just a normal value pick banking on the Nuggets outright beating the Cavaliers. Normally, the Nuggets play down to their competition, as I have previously stated in too many articles to count, but this is a matchup nightmare for Cleveland. Nikola Jokic makes it near impossible for the Cavaliers frontcourt to find any stability, and the spacing players like Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, and Jerami Grant is enough to force all the Cavaliers best defenders to abandon help defense. Obviously, they can't simply do that, so look for Jokic to have a field day with the mismatches and assignments, while Plumleee should see a few extra minutes as a result. Even if this game doesn't turn into a blowout, Plumlee runs enough minutes at power forward that Denver can run both Jokic and Plumlee to make things even worse for Cleveland.
