RADIO
There is an overwhelming sentiment echoed (particularly online) that Duke Johnson will never be a lead back. This is primarily due to him not received over 100 carries in a season since his rookie year and even then it was just 104.
Credit to Duke Johnson, he has stayed healthy every season of his NFL career and played in all 16 games, however, that does not help any fantasy truther/advocate's case of trying to prove that he is capable of carrying the workload. There are no touches to pro-rate or injuries to blame for limited usage.
The fact of the matter here is that he has been designated as a scat-back by NFL coaches and that is that. But, in fact, there may be more to it.
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Stop Size Discrimination!
Johnson is not your typical between-the-tackles grinder but he is built for a bulk workload and has found success rushing around the middle of the field. Most NFL coaches typically prefer larger backs like Carlos Hyde and David Johnson to carry the load for them because of their archaic mindsets but when push comes to shove, backs like Duke Johnson can get it done. He has been one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL since 2016 as he has averaged 4.7 YPC between the dumpster fire Browns team that went 0-16 to Houston last year.
If your argument for Duke Johnson not being capable of taking on a lead role is because he has "never done it before," I really hope you are not drafting Kenyan Drake in the first two rounds because Drake, who is the same age as Duke, has never topped 220 touches (rushes and receptions) between college and his 4 years in the NFL. In Duke's final season at the University of Miami, he touched the ball 280 times. While we are now six years removed from that, nothing about him has changed besides his arbitrary year-to-year usage that was determined via two of the most backwards coaches in recent history, Hue Jackson and Bill O'Brien, irrationally deciding that Duke should be forced into an ancillary role on offense (Mike Pettine had Duke as well but only as a rookie).
Houston traded a conditional third-round pick for Duke Johnson last offseason and it was presumed across much of the football landscape that he would take on a lead-back role. However, the acquisition of Carlos Hyde weeks later proved cumbersome as Duke fell behind on the depth chart. Unfortunately, Hyde was fairly efficient as a ball-carrier behind Houston's second-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards for running backs. He helped Houston rank first in power run success and was solid for how BOB envisioned their offense. In his eyes, there was no need to disturb a backfield that worked well and complemented each other. As the old adage goes - if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Hyde amassed 1,070 rushing yards on 245 carries and played every game.
While BOB is still his head coach in Houston, the RB ahead of Duke on the depth chart is MUCH worse in 2020.
DJ vs. DJ
The RB who currently holds the starting job, David Johnson, is not a viable NFL starter anymore.
Everyone loves to post this video and bash David Johnson. While I may be one of those people, this is not significant enough evidence to prove anything. David Johnson was fantasy relevant as recent as 2019. Throughout his first six games, he produced 613 total yards, 30 receptions and five touchdowns (three receiving). He posted RB1 value in PPR formats in all but one game that came against a respectable Baltimore defense. However, after that, not only did he suffer an ankle sprain, but also a back injury which deteriorated any chance of production upon return. David Johnson looked like a shell of himself in games he "appeared" between Weeks 10-16. He rushed just 17 times for 45 yards (2.65 YPC) and caught all six of his targets for 55 yards.
David Johnson has not been an efficient rusher since 2016. To his defense, he missed all but one game in 2017, the Arizona offense was a complete mess in 2018 when rookie Josh Rosen started and their offensive line had none of their preseason starters available past Week 10. However, even in his "elite" debut into the NFL he only averaged 4.4 YPC across his rookie and sophomore season. Johnson's rushing success was largely volume-driven but it worked because he had the prototypical size to carry that load at 6'1" 224 lbs. Now, we see the husk of a man who has been through the NFL ringer and been spit out.
The cliff for running backs is STEEP as we've seen with countless cases in the past and will continue to due to the brutal nature of the position. There's a reason that RBs value that second contract so much and threaten to hold out, it is not often a guarantee they make it to their third.
He might still be effective as a pass-catcher but from what has been put on tape and on the box score over the past few seasons, David Johnson has not shown to be a good runner. He still may possess straight-line speed but his range of mobility is shot due to the litany of injuries and set-backs his body has faced. The most worrisome is his back which could limit him throughout the rest of his career. Even he comes into the year healthy, there is no telling whether his body is 100 percent or not, the next series of hits he faces at the most touched skill position will determine that.
This is pure speculation based on the evidence provided but the way I see it playing out is:
- There is no preseason to display David Johnson as ineffective
- BOB will give David Johnson a heavy workload starting Week 1 to justify acquiring him and just a second-round pick in exchange for arguably the best WR in the NFL
- David Johnson's runs look like a tire with no tread left on them. He can hardly even fall forward correctly beyond the line of scrimmage
This will leave BOB with a tough decision to make after a few weeks of mounting evidence that David Johnson is in fact, cooked. He could slowly diminish David's touches and siphon them to Duke, or, what he should do, name Duke the lead back and for the most part remove David from the running back rotation.
There remains a possibility that Houston makes a move for another starter in the case David Johnson does not pan out but it would have to be from the bargain bin of free agency. It is unlikely they trade more assets for another running back after doing so for Duke and David Johnson already.
I am not advocating for Duke Johnson to receive an Ezekiel Elliot type of workload by any means. However, why not something a BMI counterpart like Lamar Miller received while he was with the Texans (Miller 54th percentile, Duke 59th). Now, Lamar Miller isn't a high standard to set oneself towards, but the point is that Miller, an RB with similar proportions to Duke Johnson, was the lead back for Bill O'Brien. It is not exactly precedent but it does show that BOB is okay with utilizing a shiftier back than a larger Carlos Hyde/David Johnson-type if need be.
(Fun fact though - in 2017, when Duke Johnson was in Cleveland playing his typical role and Lamar Miller was leading the Texans backfield, Johnson finished as RB12 in PPR and Miller finished as RB13 while playing the same number of games (15) during the fantasy season.)
Fantasy Outlook
Duke is currently being selected as the RB49 in NFBC drafts while David is going off the board as RB22, 100 picks earlier around Round 4. By no means am I advocating to take Duke Johnson in the Top-75 or anything but at his price or even anywhere past pick 100 in most drafts, particularly PPR, you should absolutely be taking Duke. His upside is that of a low-end RB1 as we saw in 2017. Nothing has changed since then but his team and usage, he is as capable as ever while the same cannot be said for David who is living off of dreams of past glory.
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