X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

Duke Johnson is the DJ to Own in Houston

There is an overwhelming sentiment echoed (particularly online) that Duke Johnson will never be a lead back. This is primarily due to him not received over 100 carries in a season since his rookie year and even then it was just 104.

Credit to Duke Johnson, he has stayed healthy every season of his NFL career and played in all 16 games, however, that does not help any fantasy truther/advocate's case of trying to prove that he is capable of carrying the workload. There are no touches to pro-rate or injuries to blame for limited usage.

The fact of the matter here is that he has been designated as a scat-back by NFL coaches and that is that. But, in fact, there may be more to it.

 

Stop Size Discrimination!

Johnson is not your typical between-the-tackles grinder but he is built for a bulk workload and has found success rushing around the middle of the field. Most NFL coaches typically prefer larger backs like Carlos Hyde and David Johnson to carry the load for them because of their archaic mindsets but when push comes to shove, backs like Duke Johnson can get it done. He has been one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL since 2016 as he has averaged 4.7 YPC between the dumpster fire Browns team that went 0-16 to Houston last year.

If your argument for Duke Johnson not being capable of taking on a lead role is because he has "never done it before," I really hope you are not drafting Kenyan Drake in the first two rounds because Drake, who is the same age as Duke, has never topped 220 touches (rushes and receptions) between college and his 4 years in the NFL. In Duke's final season at the University of Miami, he touched the ball 280 times. While we are now six years removed from that, nothing about him has changed besides his arbitrary year-to-year usage that was determined via two of the most backwards coaches in recent history, Hue Jackson and Bill O'Brien, irrationally deciding that Duke should be forced into an ancillary role on offense (Mike Pettine had Duke as well but only as a rookie).

Houston traded a conditional third-round pick for Duke Johnson last offseason and it was presumed across much of the football landscape that he would take on a lead-back role. However, the acquisition of Carlos Hyde weeks later proved cumbersome as Duke fell behind on the depth chart. Unfortunately, Hyde was fairly efficient as a ball-carrier behind Houston's second-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards for running backs. He helped Houston rank first in power run success and was solid for how BOB envisioned their offense. In his eyes, there was no need to disturb a backfield that worked well and complemented each other. As the old adage goes - if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Hyde amassed 1,070 rushing yards on 245 carries and played every game.

While BOB is still his head coach in Houston, the RB ahead of Duke on the depth chart is MUCH worse in 2020.

 

DJ vs. DJ

The RB who currently holds the starting job, David Johnson, is not a viable NFL starter anymore.

Advertising

Everyone loves to post this video and bash David Johnson. While I may be one of those people, this is not significant enough evidence to prove anything. David Johnson was fantasy relevant as recent as 2019. Throughout his first six games, he produced 613 total yards, 30 receptions and five touchdowns (three receiving). He posted RB1 value in PPR formats in all but one game that came against a respectable Baltimore defense. However, after that, not only did he suffer an ankle sprain, but also a back injury which deteriorated any chance of production upon return. David Johnson looked like a shell of himself in games he "appeared" between Weeks 10-16. He rushed just 17 times for 45 yards (2.65 YPC) and caught all six of his targets for 55 yards.

David Johnson has not been an efficient rusher since 2016. To his defense, he missed all but one game in 2017, the Arizona offense was a complete mess in 2018 when rookie Josh Rosen started and their offensive line had none of their preseason starters available past Week 10. However, even in his "elite" debut into the NFL he only averaged 4.4 YPC across his rookie and sophomore season. Johnson's rushing success was largely volume-driven but it worked because he had the prototypical size to carry that load at 6'1" 224 lbs. Now, we see the husk of a man who has been through the NFL ringer and been spit out.

The cliff for running backs is STEEP as we've seen with countless cases in the past and will continue to due to the brutal nature of the position. There's a reason that RBs value that second contract so much and threaten to hold out, it is not often a guarantee they make it to their third.

He might still be effective as a pass-catcher but from what has been put on tape and on the box score over the past few seasons, David Johnson has not shown to be a good runner. He still may possess straight-line speed but his range of mobility is shot due to the litany of injuries and set-backs his body has faced. The most worrisome is his back which could limit him throughout the rest of his career. Even he comes into the year healthy, there is no telling whether his body is 100 percent or not, the next series of hits he faces at the most touched skill position will determine that.

This is pure speculation based on the evidence provided but the way I see it playing out is:

  • There is no preseason to display David Johnson as ineffective
  • BOB will give David Johnson a heavy workload starting Week 1 to justify acquiring him and just a second-round pick in exchange for arguably the best WR in the NFL
  • David Johnson's runs look like a tire with no tread left on them. He can hardly even fall forward correctly beyond the line of scrimmage

This will leave BOB with a tough decision to make after a few weeks of mounting evidence that David Johnson is in fact, cooked. He could slowly diminish David's touches and siphon them to Duke, or, what he should do, name Duke the lead back and for the most part remove David from the running back rotation.

There remains a possibility that Houston makes a move for another starter in the case David Johnson does not pan out but it would have to be from the bargain bin of free agency. It is unlikely they trade more assets for another running back after doing so for Duke and David Johnson already.

I am not advocating for Duke Johnson to receive an Ezekiel Elliot type of workload by any means. However, why not something a BMI counterpart like Lamar Miller received while he was with the Texans (Miller 54th percentile, Duke 59th). Now, Lamar Miller isn't a high standard to set oneself towards, but the point is that Miller, an RB with similar proportions to Duke Johnson, was the lead back for Bill O'Brien. It is not exactly precedent but it does show that BOB is okay with utilizing a shiftier back than a larger Carlos Hyde/David Johnson-type if need be.

(Fun fact though - in 2017, when Duke Johnson was in Cleveland playing his typical role and Lamar Miller was leading the Texans backfield, Johnson finished as RB12 in PPR and Miller finished as RB13 while playing the same number of games (15) during the fantasy season.)

 

Advertising

Fantasy Outlook

Duke is currently being selected as the RB49 in NFBC drafts while David is going off the board as RB22, 100 picks earlier around Round 4. By no means am I advocating to take Duke Johnson in the Top-75 or anything but at his price or even anywhere past pick 100 in most drafts, particularly PPR, you should absolutely be taking Duke. His upside is that of a low-end RB1 as we saw in 2017. Nothing has changed since then but his team and usage, he is as capable as ever while the same cannot be said for David who is living off of dreams of past glory.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!




Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

WIN MORE IN 2024

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Alexis Diaz fantasy baseball closers rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More


Do These Prospects Matter for Fantasy Baseball?

The 2023 fantasy baseball season has been highlighted by the promotion of nearly two-dozen top prospects to the major leagues to impact fantasy rosters. This week's edition features one player who was called up as the piece was being written. Will these strong performers join the ranks of those who have moved to the majors... Read More


clayton kershaw fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

articles report test

this is a test


Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome back! It's Week 24 of our fantasy baseball Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups series! There are just two precious weeks left, and every start is becoming more and more important as most of the fantasy baseball world is in playoff matchups. If you've made it this far, there's a good chance you don't really... Read More


Aaron Nola - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Starts & Sits for MLB Week 23 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball

Welcome back RotoBallers! Big week in fantasy leagues as we approach the end of the season and playoffs! As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar, RotoBaller puts out a weekly grid of... Read More


Gunnar Henderson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome to Week 24 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire hitters. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More


Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Two-Start Pitcher Streamers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Yo, it's Jon Anderson, continuing to run the show here in terms of late-summer fantasy baseball writing. There are just two weeks left of streaming pitchers, so let's make it count! This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week,... Read More


Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Injury News and Updates: Tyler Glasnow, Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Wheeler

September is now more than half over. The baseball season is slowly coming to a close. At this point, fantasy players are pushing for their league titles or just playing for pride. Major League Baseball teams continue to do the same and injuries continue to happen, now with the dreaded term "done for the season"... Read More


Joe Musgrove - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/17/22)

Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/17/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Today's MLB slates are split up as is the norm for September baseball. Half the guys I think will play will not, so you have to be as flexible as Gumby to play MLB DFS in September, but that also means that there is a lot of money out there should you dare to dive... Read More


Max Fried - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/15/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


Robbie Ray - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/16/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Fridays are big MLB DFS days and offer a nice respite from the NFL, who command our attention on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays. This slate, like most Friday slates, is a big one as all MLB teams are in action today and 28 of those teams are on tonight's 14-game DFS slate. This was a... Read More


kyle farmer fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Top Hitter Streamers and Starts for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

There are only two weeks left of fantasy baseball! It's going to be very sad when the season comes to an end, but the impending end of the season means that these are the most important, and therefore most fun weeks of the year – for those of you still competing, at least. I have... Read More


TODAY’S MOST VIEWED PLAYERS

rotating JS ad test

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

test publish 5 mins in future

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Updates for Aaron Rodgers

Warning: Undefined array key "amp_post_template_footer" in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Warning: foreach() argument must be of type array|object, null given in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2022. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup... Read More


derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight - Monday Night Football

Welcome to NFL Monday Night Football, where we have two games scheduled between the Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills.  Monday's games mean our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play once again! The good people at Monkey Knife Fight offer some... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Week 2 Updates for Najee Harris, J.K. Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram

Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for running backs in Week 2, as of September 17. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air for Week 2 including D'Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, and more. The fantasy football season may be just getting underway,... Read More


michael pittman jr. fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL WRs: Week 2 Updates for Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Allen Lazard, Julio Jones

Welcome to Week 2 of the fantasy football season and the Saturday edition of our WR injury reports! Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for wide receivers in Week 2 as of September 16th. The injury statuses for various NFL wide receivers are up in the air for Week 2, including Michael... Read More


justin herbert fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports for QBs: Week 2 Updates for Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones

Below you will find our updated fantasy football injuries report for quarterbacks in the days before Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season as of Friday, September 16. There are a few NFL QBs dealing with injuries, including Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, and Mac Jones. Being up-to-date on NFL injury news can give... Read More


Trey Lance - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Week 2

Every week, I share some of my favored choices and players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions. These selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus... Read More


Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Sleepers

Week 2 NFL Pick Em Selections for No House Advantage

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is underway and that means our friends over at No House Advantage have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of. No House Advantage is a unique DFS prop picks site where you do not have to play against the house to... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 2: Greg Dortch, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk

Week 1 made some things come to light as we got some clarity on some murky situations. Unfortunately, many of our WR targets for DFS last week were victims of this. Robert Woods finished the game with one reception for 13 yards, as the Titans used the rookie receivers much more than him. Brandon Aiyuk... Read More


Carson Wentz - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 2: Top NFL Player Props Bets

Football season is back! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks... Read More


Fantasy Football IDP Injury Reports For NFL Defensive Players: Week 2 Updates for T.J. Watt, Jamal Adams, Jalen Thompson, Ed Oliver

T.J. Watt owners, you know the feeling... I had T.J. Watt in my home league last season. He was constantly checking out of games early with nagging minor injuries, but he must have led every IDP manager who started him to the playoffs. I went back to the well and drafted him early this year.... Read More