Duke Johnson (RB, CLE) - 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target ~75

CURRENT ADP: ~85

ANALYSIS: If your initial thought upon seeing Cleveland Browns running back Duke Johnson as a draft sleeper is that he will be operating in one of the league's most congested backfields, then you are correct. However, the potential for discouraging or inconsistent touch totals is more relevant if you are considering Carlos Hyde or Nick Chubb for inclusion on your rosters. It is my belief that Johnson’s ADP is actually the most egregious at this position, which is why this breakdown will begin by reexamining how productive he has been.

Johnson finished at RB11 in PPR leagues one year ago, after collecting the fourth highest number of targets among all backs (93). This propelled him to the fourth most receptions at his position (74) while also placing him third beyond only Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley in receiving yardage (693). Johnson also led Cleveland in all three categories by a considerable margin, although that career-best output was only marginally above the averages that he has assembled during his three-year career (80 targets/63 receptions/580 yards). His 188 catches are also the most at his position since Johnson’s 2015 rookie season.

Johnson also procured the 14^th highest snap among backs in 2017 (565/53%), and it is unlikely that his role will be altered by the tandem of Hyde and Chubb. Hyde is the probable early down option when the season begins, while Chubb should eventually overtake him in that capacity. But regardless of how specific usage fluctuates for Hyde and Chubb, Johnson should retain the fundamental role of pass catching back throughout the year. Johnson has also averaged 86 rushing attempts during his three seasons (82/73/104), and will still be deployed on the ground while performing in Cleveland's revamped offensive approach.

The Browns further solidified Johnson’s status as an integral component within their attack by signing him to a $15.6 extension through 2021 - $7.7 of which is guaranteed. His current ADP amazingly has him being selected after dozens of other backs, which simply should not be occurring. However, that presents an excellent opportunity for you to secure him at his favorable value.