Dynasty Team Analysis - Los Angeles Chargers

Here at RotoBaller, we are examining all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. We will discuss every franchise leading up to the NFL Draft, then review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the draft. Including which players you should trust, and which players you should avoid. We will also provide our recommendations on sleepers and busts, while exploring every critical position.

After beginning 2017 with a frustrating 0-4 start, the Chargers extricated their season from apparent disaster by capturing nine of their remaining 12 games. Which included a torrid 6-1 stretch from Weeks 11-17. The lone loss occurred in Kansas City, when Los Angeles had the chance to seize control of the AFC West. That disappointing outcome, coupled with the prolonged process of securing their initial win, contributed heavily to the team’s inability to reach the postseason. Even though the Chargers were performing proficiently following the discouraging start. However, Los Angeles currently has enough talent on both sides of the ball to capture the AFC West crown that eluded them last season.

General Manager Tom Telesco has already addressed one of the positions that required an upgrade by signing center Mike Pouncey. Now, he can utilize his seven draft selections to focus on the remaining areas of need. Which will only strengthen a Charger roster that already appears capable of making a deep playoff run.

Los Angeles Chargers Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 9-7 (2^nd, AFC West)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: Philip Rivers - 270.5 (QB8)
RB: Melvin Gordon - 288.1 (RB5)
WR: Keenan Allen - 284.2 (WR3)
TE: Hunter Henry  - 126.9 (TE14)
IDP: Joey Bosa - 185.2 (DE5)

Quarterback

In 2017, Philip Rivers finished within the top 10 in fantasy points among all quarterbacks for the first time since 2013. He launched 575 throws during the season, which were just six fewer than the NFL leader in that category (Tom Brady).  It was the fourth straight year that he has thrown at least 570 times, and his persistent passing enabled him to generate 4,515 yards. That was the NFL's second highest total, as the 36-year old eclipsed 4,000 yards for the ninth time in the last 10 seasons.

Even though his 28 touchdowns were the fewest since 2013, only four quarterbacks manufactured more last year. As Rivers accrued multiple touchdowns in nine different contests. His 282 YPG average was the league’s third best, and his 10 interceptions were the fewest since 2009. Although six of those transpired during his two crucial AFC West matchups with the Chiefs. Still, Rivers’ output was sufficient to consistently boost the weekly scoring totals of his owners, while culminating in his seventh Pro Bowl appearance.

The 14-year veteran has now started 192 consecutive regular-season games, and a Los Angeles offense that led the NFL in passing (277 YPG) will be reliant on Rivers as its primary component again in 2018. While there is no discernible evidence that the Chargers must expedite the search for his successor, it would behoove the team to secure more proficient backups than Cardale Jones, and newly signed Geno Smith. Which makes it conceivable that Telesco will use one of his picks on a signal caller.

Running Back

Melvin Gordon finished inside the top 10 in rushing for the first-time last season, after his career best 1,105 yards placed him seventh overall. This continued the gradual surge in Gordon's yardage totals during his three seasons (641/997) and was achieved after he was allotted the third most rushing attempts among all backs (284). His substantial workload was exceeded only by Le'Veon Bell and LeSean McCoy, although Gordon was the only member of that trio who averaged under 4.0 YPC. This repeated an unwanted trend, as he has yet to reach that number during his career (3.5/3.9/3.9).

This can create a degree of uneasiness for owners that is absent when other RB1s are available during the draft process. Still, the massive number of touches that he is allocated propels his overall yardage total to a desirable level, while also providing him with opportunities to amass touchdowns. Todd Gurley and Bell were the only backs who received more red zone carries (49), as Gordon produced eight scores on the ground. He also garnered the seventh most targets among running backs (85). Which enabled him to collect the ninth most receptions (58) and four touchdowns as a receiver.

He will remain a legitimate option at the onset of Round 2 in drafts this season, while Austin Ekeler should operate as Gordon’s dynamic backup. The undrafted free agent bolted for 539 total yards during his rookie year, and has displayed sufficient big play potential to earn a continued role. He is a worthy target during the late rounds in all draft formats. As his ability to burst for sizable yardage will deliver mammoth dividends if his workload expands.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen quickly earned a place within the fantasy radar during his 2013 rookie season, as he surpassed 1,000 yards (1,046) and generated eight touchdowns. His output dropped significantly in 2014 (783 yards/4 touchdowns), but his production re-ignited during a promising eight-game stretch in 2015 - which included a league leading 67 receptions.

Unfortunately, his year suddenly ended due to a lacerated kidney in Week 9, then a torn ACL on opening day immediately concluded his 2016 season. However, Allen garnered a well-deserved NFL Comeback Player of The Year Award in 2017, after finishing third overall with 1,393 yards, and fourth with 102 receptions. His 26 red zone targets were also the second most among all players and solidified his rise into WR1 status. 

Tyrell Williams (43 receptions/728 yards/4 touchdowns) and Travis Benjamin (34 receptions/567 yards/4 touchdowns) finished 45th and 55^th in fantasy points respectively. However, 2017 first-round pick Mike Williams should confiscate a number of opportunities that both veterans received last season. He only garnered 24 targets during an injury shortened rookie year (back), but the 6'4" Williams should improve upon the anemic production that he delivered (11 catches/95 yards).

Tight End

During his 2016 rookie season, Hunter Henry tied for the league lead in touchdowns at his position (8). He registered those scores despite performing on fewer offensive snaps than 27 other tight ends (573/53.8%), and his 54 targets were also surpassed by 27 players at his position.  That inspired optimism within the fantasy community that more opportunities were imminent, which would elevate his numbers in multiple categories.

But his snap count only rose marginally in 2017 (598/56.2%), and his targets increased by only nine (62-53). While Antonio Gates remained involved in exactly 500 snaps (47%) and captured 52 targets. As a result, Henry’s reception and yardage totals only improved slightly (45-36/579-478). Worse, his touchdowns diminished by 50% (4-8), while owners contended with wildly oscillating target totals. As Henry received at least seven in four contests, but was allotted three or less in six other games.

However, only six tight ends garnered more red zone targets then Henry (14) even though he missed Weeks 16-17 with a lacerated kidney. This bodes well for the premise that a statistical surge is still forthcoming. He is an extremely gifted athlete, who is both a reliable pass catcher and route runner. Which provides the Chargers with sufficient incentive to expand his target total. Even if eight-time Pro-Bowler Gates ultimately agrees to return for his 16th season.

IDP

While the Chargers also present owners in IDP leagues with a cluster of enticing options, any analysis of this defensive unit should begin with Joey Bosa. Whose game changing capabilities propelled him to 12.5 sacks, which placed him seventh in that category last season. The 2016 Defensive Rookie of the Year has now accumulated 23 sacks in 28 games, and also tied for fourth with four forced fumbles in 2017.

Melvin Ingram joins Bosa in anchoring the Los Angeles defensive front, as his 10.5 sacks tied him for 15^th. The pass defense ranked third (197 YPG), and is spearheaded by Casey Hayward, who was selected by Pro Football Focus as the top coverage defender. Second-year cornerback Desmond King can also provide an imposing presence, and former Pro Bowler Jason Verrett will return after missing 15 games last season (lacerated kidney). Strong safety Jahleel Addae led the team with 96 tackles, but there is greater uncertainty at free safety. As Tre Boston may be re-signed, or Telesco could locate another option during the draft.

The Chargers did rank 31^st against the run (131.1 YPG), while surrendering a league worst 4.9 YPC. As seven opposing backs gashed Los Angeles for 100+ yards. It is not difficult to envision Telesco addressing that situation by targeting the defensive tackle, and linebacker positions during the upcoming draft. Which will fortify a unit that already poses problems for opposing offenses.

Offseason Outlook

2018 Draft Picks: 1st Round (17), 2nd Round (48), 3rd Round (84), 4th Round (119),

5th Round (155), 6th Round (191), 7th Round (251) 

Team Needs: DT, ILB, FS, RT

Some players have questions surrounding their prospective fantasy value due to shortcomings of the quarterbacks who are guiding their offenses. Others present concerns that their workloads could suddenly drop due to the restrictions of operating in crowded backfields or passing attacks that distribute the ball to a burgeoning collection of weapons. But those factors do not apply to Rivers, Gordon, and Allen. Who all finished within the top eight in fantasy points at their respective positions last season.

Rivers provides owners with a level of dependability that rarely exists. Gordon continues to function as a high volume back who will garner opportunities near the goal line. While Allen’s exceptional numbers are sustainable in 2018, as Rivers should continue to locate him with desirable frequency. They are joined by Henry, Bosa, Ingram and Hayward in forming the core elements of a talent-rich Los Angeles roster.

The Chargers' offensive line was ranked just 24th by Pro Football Focus. But the addition of Pouncey will solidify the center position, while left tackle Russell Okung should continue to perform effectively.  2017 draft selections Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney should line up at guard, as Lamp has recovered from the torn ACL that sidelined him throughout all of last season. However, a draft pick may be deployed to provide competition for right tackle Joe Barksdale.

Defensively, a unit that is already comprised of difference makers should receive an infusion of additional talent through the draft. Which will make an impressive roster even stronger.

More 2018 Team Outlooks