RADIO
For every type of fantasy football draft, there are a bevy of viable strategies. Of course, as Mike Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
Thankfully, in a rookie draft for dynasty leagues you don't need to worry as much about roster construction. Unless it's a Superflex league and you really need a quarterback, which is hopefully not the case with this year's class, you typically focus on your player valuations and long-term outlook. That said, dynasty managers build differently based on their team context and the way they approach dynasty in general.
Rather than putting forth a traditional mock draft, I'll examine different draft strategies from each slot based on how the board falls and explain why each player fits the mold. In this piece, we'll start with the first four draft slots. Check the full draft board on Sleeper right here.
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Rookie Mock Draft (Slots 1-4)
| Dynasty Rookie Mock | |||
| 1.1 – Breece Hall | 1.2 – Drake London | 1.3 – Kenneth Walker | 1.4 - Chris Olave |
| 2.1 – John Metchie III | 2.2 – Isaiah Spiller | 2.3 – Jalen Tolbert | 2.4 – Rachaad White |
| 3.1 – Tyrion Davis-Price | 3.2 – Malik Willis | 3.3 – Kenny Pickett | 3.4 – Brian Robinson Jr. |
| 4.1 – Romeo Doubs | 4.2 – Jelani Woods | 4.3 – Velus Jones Jr. | 4.4 – Calvin Austin III |
| 5.1 – Isaiah Likely | 5.2 – Erik Ezukanma | 5.3 – Snoop Conner | 5.4 – Daniel Bellinger |
Slot 1 Strategy- Best Available Player
It's a no-brainer that you take the best player when you have the first overall pick. In this year's rookie class, it's Breece Hall who is the consensus number one RB whereas there is no clear consensus on the top receiver. There is no reason to question whether Hall will be a three-down back this season. Not only is his draft capital as a second-rounder higher than Michael Carter (fourth-rounder last year), but the Jets made him the first running back selected in the draft despite coming off a season where they finished dead last in points and yards allowed on defense. In spite of many other glaring needs, they took Hall to become a complete offense. Dynasty teams with the top overall pick will need to do the same.
You could make a case for Jalen Tolbert or Wan'Dale Robinson here but it should be acknowledged that Metchie would have gone higher if not for his late-season ACL injury and could become his team's number two target by midseason. A win-now build may prioritize other receivers but Metchie's ceiling is highest among the remaining options.
Ty Davis-Price wasn't expected to be a third-round pick but when Kyle Shanahan likes something he sees in an RB, we need to pay attention. He should immediately contribute as the short-yardage counterpart to Eli Mitchell and could see more carries than Mitchell owners are comfortable with. He didn't put up huge college numbers but he was stuck on an LSU offense that has become a shell of its self the last couple of years. He stands out as a potential breakout candidate and might see his ADP shoot up once preseason games take place.
Christian Watson is a first-round pick but Doubs is competing for a slice of the target pie in Green Bay and has more experience making big plays at the collegiate level. At this juncture in the draft as a fourth-round rookie pick, his upside outweighs any other receiver.
Likely is going to be a project but he has the phyiscal tools to be a pass-catching tight end on a team that seems to enjoy throwing to Mark Andrews quite a bit.
Slot 2 Strategy - Building for Next Year
Drake London's selection here determines the team build. He could end up leading all rookie WRs in targets but it's not guaranteed and even if he does, he still may not be the most productive in fantasy terms. London is a high-upside pick for those who don't expect to contend in 2022.
Spiller is a high-end handcuff who could wind up seeing the field very little this year. As the primary backup to Austin Ekeler in 2021, Justin Jackson saw 68 rush attempts. No other Chargers RB reached 40 carries. Ekeler is signed through 2023 so it's not as if Spiller is a great bet to be a fantasy factor next year either. If he does see the field, he'll join one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
So much for all the pre-draft hype about Malik Willis being a first-round pick. He will bide his time behind Ryan Tannehill for a year with the chance to take over if things don't pan out with an extended postseason run. Although next year's QB class makes this one worth ignoring, at this point it doesn't hurt to take a chance considering his dual-threat ability.
A tight end like Jelani Woods landing in a Frank Reich offense seems too good to be true. Unfortunately, rookie tight ends rarely do much and there is no player even approaching Kyle Pitts-level talent in this TE class. Woods is a stash in dynasty, plain and simple.
Slot 3 Strategy - Breakout Speculator
I'm old enough to remember when dynasty teams were supposed to built through the receiver position because of the volatility and lack of longevity at running back (that was about 2019). While you'll see plenty more receivers taken than running backs in this year's rookie drafts, more often than not the top RBs will go first. Walker was the second runner taken in the NFL Draft and is indisputably the second-ranked rookie RB in fantasy. He only has to leapfrog Rashaad Penny or wait out an injury in order to become the primary ballcarrier in Seattle.
Kenny Pickett's ceiling at the NFL level is very much in question. The great thing is that he doesn't have to be an elite passer to put up numbers. He's got Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, and a pair of fellow rookies in George Pickens and Calvin Austin to help him out. Even better, when he's in trouble he can dump it off to Najee Harris and let him do the work.
We're slowly seeing Jalen Tolbert's draft stock climb as fantasy managers realize that Michael Gallup will miss training camp and might not be ready until October. Keep in mind, he didn't have surgery until early February for his ACL injury.
The sense is Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (ACL) likely won't be ready for start of season. But Gallup said playing Week 1 is "definitely a goal. I mean, you don't want to miss no games. But you still can't put a timetable on it. ...You've got to make sure you're right before" return
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) March 17, 2022
The 'Boys traded Amari Cooper and let Cedrick Wilson Jr. walk in free agency, so Tolbert's biggest competition for targets will be James Washington and Noah Brown. Breakout imminent.
Speaking of injured players, James Robinson tore his Achilles in Week 16 last season. There's a chance he doesn't come back until midseason or later. That gives Snoop Conner a great chance to see reps. This offense has a long way to go, but he is a late-round pick that has the chance to pay off in a big way.
Slot 4 Strategy - Talent First
This build says, "Don't worry about positions, opportunity, team context, or anything extraneous. Skills are all that matter." Sounds pretty reasonable for a dynasty draft.
Chris Olave was the third receiver taken in the NFL Draft and he went to a team desperate for playmakers. The normally reliable Saints offense heads into the season with a ton of questions on offense. Will Michael Thomas be back healthy? Is Jameis Winston ready for the season and what version of him will we get? Is Alvin Kamara getting suspended? Will the scheme be the same without Sean Payton?
I have no idea but I do know that Olave is one of the most talented wideouts in this class. Focus on the talent and let the factors we have no control over play out over time.
Looking at @MattHarmon_BYB reception perception on Chris Olave mixed w how high @MattWaldman had him when on our pod last week…I’m just keep moving him ⬆️ my #SmashAccept Rookie board
Waldman episode: https://t.co/gMScIybx5W pic.twitter.com/K1qhUGlhzW
— Dynasty Dad (@Dynasty_DadFF) April 14, 2022
The Year One opportunities for Rachaad White and Brian Robinson Jr. are intriguing. Assuming Leonard Fournette doesn't go full Eddie Lacy and eat his way out of a starting job, White will be the backup and assume some third-down responsibilities if he can be as good or better than Giovani Bernard. If Fournette misses time due to injury or any other reason, White suddenly becomes a back with league-winning upside.
Robinson is going to be part of a three-man committee to start the season. That doesn't mean he can't win the starting job outright either now or down the line. It's not usual for an Alabama RB to be underrated but that seems to be what's happening with Robinson.
Most missed tackles forced in a season by an Alabama RB since 2014
? Brian Robinson Jr (’21): 79
? Derrick Henry (’15): 76
? Najee Harris (’20): 71 pic.twitter.com/aT5VRWsBo7— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 4, 2022
Earlier, I mentioned that rookie TEs don't usually do much for fantasy. One exception was Evan Engram, who caught 64 passes for 722 yards in his first season with the Giants. He's gone now, paving the way for Bellinger to be the starter. Only Ricky Seals-Jones stands in his way.
The G-Men now have Brian Daboll as their head coach and OC Mike Kafka comes over from the Chiefs where he helped Travis Kelce become the best tight end in football. Kelce was a third-round pick when he was selected back in 2013, Bellinger is a fourth-rounder. Kelce stands at 6'5", 256 lb and Bellinger comes into the league at 6'6", 255 lb. I'm not saying Bellinger is definitely the next Kelce but I'm also not not saying that.
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