Dynasty Risers and Fallers: Midseason Update

Most teams in redraft leagues are still hoping to make a playoff run with smart waiver wire moves, players returning from injury, or just plain better luck. In dynasty, GMs are running out of time to decide whether to play for this year or look toward the future.

This piece will reflect on the biggest risers and fallers from preseason to midseason in order to help make informed decisions. This isn't meant to be a "buy or sell" piece but you might consider using this information to take action based on your current standing.

I will omit players whose value has dropped because of lengthy injuries and focus on diminishing production or roles for veteran players.

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A Word About Rookies

When reviewing my own rankings as well as others, it became obvious that many of the top risers were rookies who have made immediate impacts. We couldn't properly ascertain their respective roles in their offenses or how they would adjust to the pros without seeing it for ourselves. It's clear now that players like Tee Higgins and Chase Claypool will be targeted prominently despite other talented receivers competing for targets while Justin Jefferson may finish as a top-20 fantasy WR.

Rather than going in-depth on these individuals, I'll simply drop the rankings differences here for perspective on how they've climbed in value over the first eight weeks.

Preseason Rank	Player	Midseason Rank
96	Justin Jefferson	35
105	Tee Higgins	54
161	James Robinson	56
138	Chase Claypool	61
145	Justin Herbert	93
NA	Darnell Mooney	160

There are absolutely no buy-low opportunities here. I personally made a point of acquiring Higgins, Claypool, and Robinson in the same dynasty league before Week 5 so it's reassuring to see their stock shoot up. The proverbial window is closing on Mooney, as he has overtaken Anthony Miller's role as WR2 in that offense. If Chicago starts over at QB, it's hard to say how productive he'll be in 2021 so don't give up too much for him.

It's too early to be down on any rookie, so they won't be included in the fallers section either. Yes, that includes Jonathan Taylor.

 

Dynasty Risers

These are the top non-rookie players who rose at least 30 spots from preseason to midseason in my dynasty rankings with some notes on each.

Preseason Rank	Player	Midseason Rank
132	Jonnu Smith	81
123	Robby Anderson	83
142	Chase Edmonds	94
NA	Travis Fulgham	134
151	Damien Harris	116
265	Tim Patrick	155

Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN) - After Week 5, it looked like Smith might be a revelation at TE similar to Mark Andrews last season. He began with four receptions in each of his first four games and five touchdowns. Since then, he's been a massive disappointment with six catches, 83 yards and three straight games without a score until Week 9. There's a reason for this split - in three of those first four games, either A.J. Brown or Corey Davis was missing.

In redraft, Smith has high upside but is a shaky start going forward from week to week. In dynasty, he's a must-hold though. The reason is simple - he will continue to have a prominent role whether in Tennessee or elsewhere. The Titans have Brown and Adam Humphries tied up in four-year contracts but Davis will be an unrestricted free agent after this year. There are no receivers of consequence after that. Smith himself is set to be a UFA in 2021, so he will either get paid to remain the TE1 or get swept away by another team for the same purpose. He's flashed the type of ceiling that we hope to see from the tight end position that seems more devoid of reliable fantasy options than ever.

Robby Anderson (WR, CAR) - We should have guessed that leaving Adam Gase's offense would result in a huge value boost like it has for so many others. Anderson isn't just on pace for career-best receiving numbers, he is the top receiver in Carolina. After eight games, Anderson has out-targeted D.J. Moore 67-59. While Moore is four years younger and still holds more long-term value, Anderson can help dynasty teams now and for the next few years.

Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI) - It's obvious that Edmonds has gained a major boost in short-term value as long as Kenyan Drake is out. This ranking reflects his value beyond 2020, however, not just a midseason adjustment to his temporary starting role. Edmonds came from a small school (Fordham), didn't blow anybody away with his workout numbers (4.55 40, 117 SPARQ), and was the third running back on the depth chart late last year once Drake came over. It's understandable that dynasty managers were skeptical of his value. This year, he's shown his versatility and explosiveness that Drake simply hasn't.

Edmonds has shown what he can do in this potent offense and the Cards aren't tied to Drake beyond this year. Edmonds will surely get competition for touches in one form or another next year but a prolific pass-catching RB will always have fantasy value worth holding onto.

Travis Fulgham (WR, PHI) - Is Fulgham the real deal? Is he the WR1 in Philly even with Jalen Reagor back on the field and Alshon Jeffery set to return? My best guess is yes based on the extraordinary target share he's receiving. Since Week 5, he's earned 29% of the team's targets and 25% of the red-zone targets. His pedigree likely means he won't surpass players like D.J. Moore or Marquise Brown in perceived value, even if he continues to be more productive.

Damien Harris (RB, NE) - Harris is a year-long sleeper who has finally woken up. In his first four starts, he is averaging 5.7 yards per carry with two 100-yard efforts despite getting 12.3 carries per game. This Patriots offense has become unrecognizable from the past two decades, which may actually benefit a running back like Harris who can carry the load. James White is being phased out of the offense and Sony Michel remains on IR, so Harris figures to keep gaining steam as a disappointing 2020 rolls on in New England.

Tim Patrick (WR, DEN) - Patrick is arguably the WR1 in Denver. That's not something anybody expected even after Courtland Sutton went down with a torn ACL. He entered Week 9 tied with Jerry Jeudy at 23 receptions and behind the rookie by five yards in terms of season totals, although Patrick missed a game and had higher per-game averages. He's also posted two 100-yard efforts, something which Jeudy just did for the first time in Week 9.

If Patrick stays healthy and on the field, he can be a nice buy-low pick for dynasty owners based on what he's shown so far. But what about next year when Sutton returns and Jeudy evolves into the elite receiver many think he will be? As a free agent, Patrick might benefit from latching onto another team. In fact, if a WR-needy team like New England or Green Bay that didn't make a move at the trade deadline decides to acquire him, he could be in a far better spot. Just imagine what he could do with a QB better than Drew Lock.

Quotes from a few film experts I've talked to the past 7 days on Jerry Jeudy pic.twitter.com/V6y6861zJH

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 7, 2020

 

Fallers

Preseason Rank	Player	Midseason Rank
13	Mike Evans	32
46	Zach Ertz	113
71	T.Y. Hilton	111
107	Anthony Miller	138
120	N'Keal Harry	162
164	Ian Thomas	231

Mike Evans (WR, TB) - My esteemed colleague Justin Carter has already expanded on what to do with Evans in fantasy, including dynasty advice. Although it's best to hold for now because you won't get comparable value in return, this is a result of the fact that his production with Tom Brady at QB is a big question mark.

Sure, he's been banged up and is playing with a health meter at about 80% according to his head coach. We also can't ignore that Chris Godwin hasn't been on the field half the season, yet Evans has been held under 60 yards in all but two games. Even Scott Miller has been more involved than Evans at times.

Been the case all season, not sure why we'd expect it to change. For whatever reason, Tom Brady just hasn't been willing to pull the trigger to Evans. Evans has less than half as many targets 20+ yards downfield as Scotty Miller; two fewer than Gronk. https://t.co/QfHJvqYTIX

— Chris Paul Towers (@CTowersCBS) November 9, 2020

Oh, and Antonio Brown is now in the fold too. Evans has produced points thanks to his red-zone prowess, scoring six times on nine red-zone targets. That is hard to sustain but also frustrating when you expect more. I don't see a scenario where any dynasty manager will trade him away at a discount, so don't actively seek him out.

Zach Ertz (TE, PHI) - This might seem injury-related but its not. Ertz hasn't been ruled out for the year but his value was tanking even before his ankle injury. He simply wasn't a fantasy TE1 and may have played his last game as an Eagle if his ankle doesn't heal quickly enough.

Dallas Goedert is back and will be the main tight end in Philly next year. Ertz's contract situation never got settled and likely won't in the offseason, meaning he will be looking to regain his form elsewhere. Someone will sign him to be a starter but it doesn't mean he'll ever see the same target share or enjoy the same success again.

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND) - Hilton hasn't scored a touchdown or reached the 70-yard mark in 2020. Is is a lack of chemistry between him and Philip Rivers or have we seen the best Hilton has to offer? At age 30, he may be losing a step. His 2.6 Separation Rate isn't great but what's worse is his 56.4% catch rate. Philip Rivers just isn't challenging defenses down the field, which has always been Hilton's specialty.

Midway through 2020, Rivers is averaging 7.2 Intended Air Yards per Pass Attempt. Only seven teams have a lower figure. Then there's the fact that 15 different players have caught a pass for the Colts this season with seven of them being wide receivers other than Hilton. This offense can get by just fine without Hilton and may even be better without him. As an unrestricted free agent in 2021, he will have to revive his career elsewhere but it won't be as the main receiver.

Anthony Miller (WR, CHI) - As Darnell Mooney's stock rises, so does Miller's fall. He's actually seen a boost in targets the last two games, with 19 between Week 8-9 combined, but that has mostly to do with game script and an inordinate number of pass attempts for the Bears. In this third season, Miller is averaging fewer yards per game (35.7) than his second season (41.0)

N'Keal Harry (WR, NE) - Maybe having Harry as a top-200 dynasty player is being generous. Pushing aside the number of games missed due to injury, when he's been on the field he has produced virtually nothing. With Tom Brady at QB, Harry caught half of his targets for 8.8 yards per reception. With Cam Newton, it hasn't been much better with a 59.4% catch rate and 9.1 yards per reception. The one and only time Harry has exceeded 40 yards in a game in his brief career was in Week 2 this season against a Seattle Seahawks Defense that is allowing an astronomical 362.1 passing yards per game to opponents. It's probably time to cut bait.

Ian Thomas (TE, CAR) - This may be less about Thomas himself than the offense he's in. Matt Rhule seems to care nothing for the tight end position, as it has been targeted. Ironically, only the Gronk-less Patriots are lower in terms of TE Target Share:

Here's how teams have distributed their targets to each position, sorted by the number of targets each team has per game. Keep in mind that 1) Not all attempts are targets and 2) This only includes players with WR/TE/RB designation. pic.twitter.com/ejjl6ztQtp

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 3, 2020

It's clear that he can't help fantasy teams this year or next when the ball never comes his way, so don't hold out much hope.

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