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It's the offseason! Except when it comes to dynasty leagues, there is no offseason.
We'll be spending some time this year thinking about how to value individual players in dynasty in our Dynasty Price Check series. What's a player's current value? Should you trade them or trade for them? Are they being overvalued or undervalued by dynasty players?
Today, we'll be looking at Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.
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Ezekiel Elliott Background
We probably don't need to provide too much background on Ezekiel Elliott. He's basically been a top-five fantasy pick every season of his NFL career, and most of the time fantasy managers who spent an early pick on Elliott have been happy. Per Pro Football Reference, here's how Elliott's fantasy production has gone each season:
So, Elliott was a top-five fantasy running back in three of his first four seasons, and in 2017, the only reason he didn't finish top-five was that he only played 10 games. He would have been around 265 fantasy points in 15 games, which would have ranked second to Todd Gurley.
So with that in mind, last year's numbers should definitely be a little alarming! It was Elliott's first finish outside of the top-10 at the running back position and he played 15 games. What happened?
The simple answer: fewer opportunities and less production with the opportunities that he did get.
Elliott's 244 caries were his lowest in a full season. His 979 rushing yards were his fewest ever. His 65.3 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry were also both career lows.
Zeke was once the workhorse back for the Cowboys under former head coach Jason Garrett, but it's clear that things are changing under Mike McCarthy. His usage in the receiving game was still about what it was the year before, but his reduced run-game usage made for the worst season of Elliott's career. And now, he's going to be heading into his sixth NFL season with a ton of wear on his tires.
Dynasty Outlook
The big question with Elliott: how do we view him going forward?
ESPN's Mike Clay has Elliott still ranked as the No. 7 overall player and RB5 in dynasty right now, but the rest of the dynasty community is lower on him. FantasyPros currently has 14 experts with 2021 dynasty rankings submitted, including rankings from two of RotoBaller's writers. Brandon Murchison has Zeke as his RB9, while Pierre Camus has him at RB6. But others have Elliott as low as RB22, and he averages out to be the RB9.
The point? Opinion on Zeke is really all over the place right now. Let's examine the two possible scenarios for him.
Scenario 1: 2020 was a sign of what the future for Zeke looks like
A few years back, Joseph Juan ran some numbers that showed running backs hit a major cliff at 1,800 carries.
Elliott is currently at 1,413 career carries.
That means he isn't at that cliff yet, but he's fast approaching it. And considering how much his production fell off this year, it seems logical to think one of two things:
- That Mike McCarthy knows Elliott is approaching that cliff and is going to spell him more with Tony Pollard going forward, which can keep Elliott fresher but also will continue to lead to less work
- That Elliott's fall off in yards per carry is about overuse, and nothing McCarthy does with Elliott will change that
In both of those scenarios, Elliott's best days are behind him. Either he keeps becoming less effective because of a reduction in usage or becomes less effective because he's just...less effective now. Whichever is true, it makes Elliott a dynasty faller going forward.
Scenario 2: 2020 was just a blip on the radar and Elliott is still elite
Elliott has been one of the NFL's best running backs since he was drafted. 2020 wasn't good compared to what he usually does, but he still finished as an RB1, he was still targeted 71 times in the passing game, and he did this despite the Cowboys offense not having their starting quarterback most of the year.
In fact, the splits for games with Dak Prescott and without Dak Prescott is stark. Per RotoViz, these numbers are pretty wild to see:
It makes sense that Elliott played better when he had better quarterback play. Dallas' offense when it's at its best should offer plenty of space for a running back -- Zeke, Pollard, whoever -- to excel. So if Dak is back and the team still has three very good receivers in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup, defenses won't be able to key in on Elliott and he'll be fine.
Both of these scenarios have some merit and the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but personally, when it comes to an aging running back, I tend to lean a little more on the "he's losing a step" end of things.
What's He Worth?
So, what should dynasty managers do about Elliott? It really depends on your current outlook.
Win-Now Team
The worst-case scenario for Zeke in 2021 -- if he stays healthy -- is that he's a high-end RB2. I'd guess that 2022 is when we might start to see some bigger falloff, but as long as he's in Dallas, he should get enough carries to be productive.
With that in mind, I think someone who wants to win now and doesn't currently have Zeke on their roster should be out there asking questions. Could a young running back like Cam Akers get you Elliott in a trade? If so, that might be something that helps you out in 2021. Or, could you package someone like Joe Mixon or Clyde Edwards-Helaire for Elliott AND an additional piece?
I'd also be willing to move any draft pick for Zeke right now except for maybe the 1.01 in Superflex because in that scenario, it would be hard to pass on Trevor Lawrence. But, if someone was willing to take Zeke for 1.02 or something, jump on that. (Though I guess most win-now teams don't have the 1.02.)
If you already have Elliott, it's hard to see a reasonable way to trade him while staying in win-now mode. Sorry buddy, but you're keeping him.
Rebuilding Team
TRADE TRADE TRADE.
Look, Zeke still has some solid years ahead of him, but if you have your sights set on 2022 or later, you can probably get a good return for Elliott, and this might also be the last time you get that big return.
Maybe you can get a top-five pick and either a later pick or a lottery ticket guy like JaMycal Hasty, Lynn Bowden Jr., or Russell Gage? Or maybe you can get a couple of solid young guys -- could a contending team give you a Chase Claypool-type and an A.J. Dillon-type player? Those guys aren't nearly as valuable as Elliott in the short term but could be down the line, especially if Aaron Jones is gone from Green Bay.
Explore the market. See what offers are there. Maximize the trade window while you can.
Or, if you're a big believer in Elliott having a strong 2021 season, hold him. Explore the market again in, like, Week 4 when someone is desperate.
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