Dynasty Team Analysis - Buffalo Bills

Here at RotoBaller, we are examining all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. We will discuss every franchise leading up to the NFL Draft, then review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the draft. Including which players you should trust, and which players should you avoid. We will also provide our recommendations on sleepers and busts, while exploring every critical position.

After a 17-year absence from the postseason, the unwanted redundancy of repeated failure finally subsided for Buffalo in 2017, as the Bills ended the longest playoff drought in American professional sports. It was the second time in four years that the Bills had compiled a winning record, although it was also just the fourth time since 1999. But that did not prohibit General Manager Brandon Beane from undertaking aggressive roster transformation during the season. Even as the Bills maintained their aspirations of ending that undesirable postseason drought.

He has been operating in lockstep with head coach Sean McDermott, who joins Beane in entering year two of their tenure. Their decision to eschew a fourth season with Tyrod Taylor spearheading the offense has altered the path of the franchise. With nine picks in the upcoming NFL draft, including six within the initial 100 selections, there is a genuine opportunity to secure a signal caller. However, there are a considerable number of needs that are interspersed throughout the roster. Whether Beane will utilize his draft capital to capture a quarterback early in Round 1, or keep his surplus of picks to address the team’s cluster of roster deficiencies has yet to be determined.

Buffalo Bills Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 9-7 (2nd AFC East)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: Tyrod Taylor - 222.6 (QB16)
RB: LeSean McCoy - 263.6 (RB7)
WR: Kelvin Benjamin - 135.2 (WR47)
TE:  Charles Clay - 116.8 (TE18)
IDP: Jordan Poyer - 200.2 (S3)

Quarterback

Taylor was not fully embraced by Buffalo’s current decision making tandem, and was dispatched to Cleveland in early March. His ability to minimize turnovers was established with the 51/16 touchdown to interception ratio that he constructed from 2015-2017. While he also averaged 525 yards and bolted for 14 touchdowns on the ground during that span. His mobility and potential to connect on deep throws also made him a duel threat streaming option for owners. However, he never finished higher than 23^rd overall in passing, averaged just 2,952 yards during the last three seasons, and simply was not the signal caller that Beane and McDermott preferred to trust in 2018 and beyond. While the validity of their concerns about Taylor can be debated, last season’s catastrophic decision by McDermott to start Nathan Peterman in Week 11 was a clear indicator that the Bills would eventually choose another quarterback to guide the offense.

That will materialize in Week 1, when either A. J. McCarron or Peterman will be spearheading Buffalo’s attack - unless a rookie signal caller emerges to pilfer the position. The anointed starter will supply the team with a passer that is more likely to remain planted in the pocket, but it also leaves Buffalo’s offense severely lacking difference makers beyond LeSean McCoy. McCarron forged a 6/2 touchdown to interception ratio during a four-game stretch in 2015, while Andy Dalton was sidelined with a fractured right thumb.

But the 27-year old delivered mixed results during Cincinnati’s lone postseason matchup that season (212 yards/3 fumbles/1 interception), and has only played a grand total of 28 snaps since that contest. Peterman performed on 97 snaps as a rookie, although his most memorable moments occurred during his apocalyptic five-interception meltdown last November. Which transpired when McDermott thrust him into the lineup for a difficult road matchup with the Chargers.

There is a distinct possibility that Buffalo will trade into a more favorable slot in Round 1. Which would provide a better opportunity to secure one of the high-profile signal callers (Sam Darnold/Josh Rosen/Josh Allen/Baker Mayfield). The Bills certainly have the resources to accomplish that type of trade. But the reality of how many different positions now require an upgrade could supersede the desire to move up from the 12^th slot that the team currently occupies.

Running Back

The fact that McCoy has delivered consistent, high quality production during his career hardly qualifies as breaking news. However, the achievements of Buffalo's most critical offensive weapon are worthy of a brief review. Since 2010, McCoy has averaged 1,182 rushing yards, despite missing 11 games during that eight-year span. He has accumulated 1,000+ yards in four of the past five seasons, averaged 1,202 since 2016, and has supplemented that output with 75 touchdowns.

McCoy has also placed among the top six in yardage during four of the past five seasons. With the lone exception taking place in 2015, when a torn MCL combined with a hamstring issue in limiting him to 12 games. He has also averaged 49 receptions and 375 yards per year as a receiver, while generating 15 touchdowns. Overall, his excellent output did not regress in 2017. As he finished fourth in rushing with 1,138 yards, while capturing 59 of his 78 targets for 448 yards and two scores. His six touchdowns on the ground did represent a noticeable decline from 2016 (13).  Although that was partially a byproduct of the unimaginative approach from former coordinator Rick Dennison.

He has been replaced by Brian Daboll, in hopes of injecting more creativity into an attack that ranked an anemic 29^th in total offense. McCoy is fully capable of delivering exceptional production yet again, as new backup Chris Ivory does not pose a significant threat to deplete his sizable workload. However, that forecast carries a crucial disclaimer, as the components that surround McCoy must improve. Playmakers at the other skill positions are non-existent, and any decline in effectiveness by the offensive line will create another obstacle for McCoy and the already barren attack. Still, McCoy will be functioning as the cornerstone of the offense, which places him securely among the top 10 backs.

Wide Receiver

You will not find the name of a wide receiver atop most categories when perusing Buffalo's 2017 receiving stats. McCoy led the Bills in targets and receptions (77/59), while Charles Clay paced the team in receiving yards (558). Andre Holmes did generate a team-high three touchdowns, while Zay Jones tied Deonte Thompson for third in receptions (27). But Kelvin Benjamin only accrued 16 receptions for 217 yards after he was traded to the team on Halloween. While a series of injuries (thumb/knee/ankle) restricted Jordan Matthews to career low numbers in receptions, yardage and touchdowns (25/282/1).

After the offseason departures of Matthews and Thompson; Benjamin and Jones currently occupy the top two spots on the depth chart, followed by either Holmes or newly signed Jeremy Kerley. Which should be unsettling for Bills fans, and is decidedly lacking in fantasy relevance for owners. The 27-year old Benjamin has played through several injuries while performing in 16 games during both 2014 and 2016 (shoulder/concussion). But a torn ACL sidelined him throughout all of 2015, while a torn meniscus sidelined him for two games last season.

That issue also resulted in off-season surgery, from which Benjamin continues his recovery. His receptions, yardage and touchdown totals have steadily declined since the career-best output of his 2014 rookie season (73/1,008/9), and his 2017 production (48/692/3) left him far beyond the leading point producers. Benjamin’s descending value, combined with the career long statistical ceilings of Holmes and Kerley, and the uncertainty that has encircled Jones, leaves Buffalo with one of the league's most talent deficient arsenal of wide receivers.

Tight End

Seven-year veteran Clay has been a Bill since 2015, and has delivered unfailingly consistent season totals in receptions (51/57/49) yardage (528/552/558), and touchdowns (3/4/2) since that time. His fantasy point totals have also been steady, although his output has not placed him remotely close to the league leaders (TE18/TE16/TE18).

But considering the alarmingly substandard state of Buffalo's options at wide receiver, Clay would be a valuable asset to the next starting quarterback if Week 1 were to kick-off today. His 12 red zone targets were second to McCoy last season, and his overall total trailed only McCoy and Jones. He also accrued these numbers while missing three games due to both a torn meniscus and MCL sprain that occurred on the same hit.

Ideally, Beane would deploy a draft pick toward garnering a young tight end who could supplement Clay's production this season, while also evolving into the team's eventual starter. But given the cornucopia of positions that could use an upgrade, he could easily progress through the season as Buffalo's TE1 with little threat to siphon targets. Clay does not present owners with an electrifying option, but he does supply an adequate floor. Which can be a rarity at this position.

IDP

The Bills ranked just 26th in total defense last season, and were particularly vulnerable against the run (ranked 29th). They not only yielded substantial yardage (124.6 YPG/4.3 YPC), but also  surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing backs (22.9 PPG). As 11 different runners gashed this unit for at least 75 yards. Former Panther Star Lotulelei was signed to address this weakness, and will operate with long-time Bill Kyle Williams at tackle. Finding an effective edge rushing complement to Jerry Hughes in the draft would be beneficial. However, the most cavernous hole on this unit now exists at middle linebacker. Where Beane must replace Preston Brown, who tied for the league lead with 144 tackles in 2017. The Bills would also benefit from a talent infusion at outside linebacker, although the interior presents the greatest area of concern.

In the secondary, Tre’Davious White returns after an exceptional rookie season. Unfortunately, E.J. Gaines and Shareece Wright signed elsewhere (Browns/Raiders), while Leonard Johnson was not retained. As a result, opponents have the option of targeting cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Phillip Gaines, who were signed as replacements. Injuries have diminished the skills that Davis delivered during his Pro Bowl seasons (2014/2015), while Gaines is a liability in coverage after being graded 119th out of 121 corners by Pro Football Focus. The safety position offers more stability with returning starters Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.

Offseason Outlook

2018 Draft Picks: 1st Round (12), 1st Round (22), 2nd Round (53), 2nd Round (56), 3rd Round (65), 3rd Round (96), 4th Round (121), 5th Round (166), 6th Round (187) 

Team Needs: QB, WR, OLB, ILB, CB, DE

Whoever ultimately guides the offense will be operating behind a line that will undergo renovation after being ranked 7^th by Pro Football Focus in 2017 (124 pressures). As this unit has unexpectedly lost two starters after the unforeseen retirements of Richie Incognito and Eric Wood. Incognito’s situation suddenly emerged after a series of mystifying tweets resulted in Buffalo placing him on the reserved/retired list. Now, the loss of this four-time Pro Bowler and former center Wood has forced restructuring of the line's components. Russell Bodine, Ryan Groy, and Vladimir Ducasse are among the candidates to replace the retired veterans. Otherwise, 2017 second-round pick Dion Dawkins should line up at left tackle as he did for 11 games last season. While neither Jordan Mills or Marshall Newhouse are trustworthy at right tackle.

Taylor’s scrambling ability would have been beneficial in overcoming a certain degree of insufficient blocking. But now, the absence of a mobile quarterback only accentuates any issues that may emerge in the revamped line. This intensifies the challenging process that Beane must navigate when he determines how to employ Buffalo’s draft picks. As he must consider the options that might exist at quarterback, any burgeoning concerns about the line, the unimpressive receiving arsenal, and the inadequacies throughout the defense.

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