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After one week of NFL action, the fantasy overreaction is already at a critical mass. Seasoned dynasty league managers have learned to take a patient, long-term approach to roster construction. Others are in the business of making knee-jerk reactions and filling their trade block with underperforming players from the results of a single game.
We should all be so lucky as to be in a league where someone is eager to give away Ezekiel Elliott or Mike Evans for draft picks but that's not usually the case. This analysis won't include such players because it won't help the majority who read this. It also won't include players on IR who might be gotten on an injury discount. That was already covered in a previous write-up on How to Approach Injured Players in Dynasty. Nor will it cover trendy players such as Elijah Mitchell who are simply not worth their asking price yet.
Finally, while I will advise as to which players could make smart trade targets or "buy-low" candidates in the fantasy world, I will not suggest hypothetical trades or players/picks to offer up. Every league is unique in terms of size, roster makeup, settings, and scoring rules. If you would like help with specific trade scenarios, feel free to follow me on Twitter @Roto_Chef and ask away.
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Tony Jones Jr., New Orleans Saints
Meet the new backup and fantasy insurance policy to Alvin Kamara. Although Latavius Murray was mostly a salary cap casualty and not strictly beaten out by Jones in the preseason, the Saints are a team that expects to be in the postseason and wouldn't have left themselves with Jones as the RB2 if they didn't have confidence in him. That matters more than some may believe.
Last year, New Orleans was fourth in the league in rushing attempts per game. That was with a very much non-running quarterback in Drew Brees most of the season. Latavius Murray, whose role Jones has taken, ran the ball exactly 146 times each of the last two seasons with the Saints. With a solid 4.5 yards per carry average, that equated to 637 and 656 yards. Add in a fair amount of receptions and he went over 800 total yards in 2019 and 2020. That's not drool-worthy in fantasy but it makes for a solid RB3/Flex which is why Murray was being drafted as the RB50 this preseason. Now it's Jones' turn to get that production.
In dynasty, you get that along with an eight-year age discount. Jones is 23 years old entering his second NFL season but with very fresh legs since he has all of 14 NFL carries. He wasn't run into the ground at Notre Dame either, totaling 271 rush attempts in four years. The 4.68 40 time and underwhelming metrics scream to avoid him as a long-term asset but that's not always the best way to measure future NFL production. The list of running backs with a 40 time over 4.6 in the last five years alone includes names like David Montgomery, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kareem Hunt, Ronald Jones, and James Robinson. It's all about opportunity and team context, both of which Jones has in his favor.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
When a franchise commits an early draft pick to a running back, which is a second-rounder these days, that's usually a bad sign for the other members of the backfield. In the case of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, the Colts are now committed to both. Despite picking Taylor a year ago and getting 1,468 scrimmage yards from him as a rookie, they inked Hines to a three-year extension that includes $10 million guaranteed. His annual salary now ranks among the top 12 RBs in the NFL. Not bad for a third-down back.
Except that Hines isn't just a situational player who waits behind Taylor for his opportunity. In Week 1, Hines rushed nine times and saw eight targets while Taylor carried it 17 times and saw seven targets. Taylor is clearly the lead rusher but Hines will get in his share of carries regardless of game script. His floor may be higher than Taylor's since he is guaranteed a high target share. He was the top target in Week 1 and last year came in as the second-leading target-getter on the Colts among all players with 81. That includes 14 red-zone targets which also ranked second on Indianapolis behind sneaky TD vulture Zach Pascal.
Hines has a secure role on an offense that will basically feature him most weeks. He does not possess week-winning or league-winning upside but that is what makes him undervalued.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Now's the time to take advantage of this slight injury discount since it's not season-ending. You won't have any such luck with Jerry Jeudy so don't bother, but some dynasty owners might be ready to cut the cord on Gallup.
After enjoying a strong 2019 campaign in which he gathered 66 receptions for 1,107 yards in just 14 games, he saw a dip in production in 2020. That goes for the whole Dallas offense due to the absence of Dak Prescott for most of the season but his target share also dropped a bit with the arrival of CeeDee Lamb. The further ascension of Lamb and the fact that Gallup will miss about a month of action just puts him further down the pecking order.
This all seems like bad news and reason enough to avoid Gallup but his talent is not in question. Gallup won't help fantasy teams in the near future but he can help throughout the second half of the season and beyond. It should be noted that Gallup is in a contract year and may not wear the silver and blue in 2021 with all the big checks Jerry Jones has already written out. On many other teams, he would slot in as the second receiving option, not the third. Of course, a move could also lead to a reduction in quarterback talent but the uptick in target volume would offset that. Find an impatient Gallup owner and make a move to swap a short-term WR asset for Gallup.
Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
Many were surprised to see Palmer taken in the third round of the NFL Draft when his college numbers were unremarkable at Tennessee. His QB play was spotty at best but the film speaks for itself. Palmer balled out in a road game against Georgia with two touchdowns grabs and pulled down a highlight-reel score against Alabama. Mediocre Pro Day numbers were ultimately overshadowed by a strong showing the week of the Senior Bowl. After an impressive preseason, it seemed as if Palmer was set to start the season as Justin Herbert's WR3. Then Week 1 happened.
Chargers final WR snap count
Keenan Allen 67
Mike Williams 61
Jalen Guyton 50
Josh Palmer 14
K.J. Hill 7Out of 81 plays
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 12, 2021
Rookie WR Lowest Snap Rates Wk1
Rondale Moore 28% ?
Amari Rodgers 26%
D’Wayne Eskridge 22%
Josh Palmer 17%
Kadarius Toney 8% ?
Tutu Atwell 3%?#FantasyFootball #Rookies pic.twitter.com/tS9W6FJp0U— Caleb (@kielpro88) September 15, 2021
Jalen Guyton is clearly the guy for now. This may not be a knock on Palmer's readiness so much as a byproduct of the Chargers playing a closely-contested season opener and bringing the rook on slowly.
Not to compare Palmer to the receiver who just set the rookie record for yardage in a season, but Justin Jefferson didn't come out the gate blazing. He played 36 snaps in Week 1 and that number went down to 29 the following week. Then Week 3 happened and the rest is (literally) history.
Palmer should seize the WR3 job in a matter of weeks which makes him an attractive short-term dynasty asset. The bigger picture is that Mike Williams is an unrestricted free agent after 2021 so Palmer has the chance to assert himself as a starter if things go well.
N'Keal Harry, New England Patriots
Sometimes you have to take a gamble and flip a mid-round pick for a player. That's all that Harry is worth these days despite being a first-round draft pick just two years ago. He struggled with injuries as a rookie and never gelled with Cam Newton last year. Now, he's on IR with a bum shoulder and won't be back until Week 4 at the earliest. What makes him worth rostering at all?
Obviously, the first-round talent and run-after-catch ability that made him a star at Arizona State. More importantly, this offense still needs another wideout to give Mac Jones a full complement of weapons. Jones looked the part of future franchise QB in his debut and that bodes well for guys like Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers as well as tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. But none of those players have the skill level and fantasy upside of Harry. He boasts ideal size at 6'2", 228 lb and a speed score in the 91st percentile. Don't forget a college dominator rating and breakout age that are off the charts.
He was looking sharp throughout training camp, is clearly motivated to get on the field and prove himself based on his trade demands, and now has an accurate pocket passer behind center. Roll the dice and see what turns up.
Kylen Granson, Indianapolis Colts
Any tight end worth his salt is going to be a firm hold in dynasty leagues. There are only so many dependable fantasy starters at TE and their managers won't part with them on the cheap. Often, the best strategy is to take a long-term approach and grab a young player who could develop over the course of a year or two. Granson is one such player, especially considering the offense he plays in.
2021 Offensive-Minded #NFL Head Coaches/OC's whose offenses average the most TE targets per game (career)
1. Eric Bieniemy (10.31) - KC OC
2. Frank Reich (9.47) - IND HC
3. Nick Sirianni (8.88) - PHI HC
4. Jason Garrett (8.64) - NYG OC
5. Pat Shurmur (8.18) - DEN OC— Eli Grabanski (@3li_handles) May 5, 2021
Frank Reich is a fan of throwing to the tight end and so is Carson Wentz. Eli Grabanski breaks down coaching tendencies each week and noted that Week 1 might be an outlier in terms of the target distribution for Indy. He noted in his preseason overview of the Colts' coaching staff just what this could mean for Granson specifically.
Reich will feed his tight ends more than just about any other offensive mind in the league. Based on this information, Kylen Granson looks like a great value in rookie drafts right now and if one player, in particular, ends up dominating the snaps at the tight end position for the Colts, they will be a strong TE1.
Throughout training camp, word was that Granson might be featured as a pass-catching tight end for the Colts. It was an inauspicious start in Week 1, as Granson was only in on 9% of the offensive snaps and not targeted. It will take some time for him to unseat both Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox but neither of those veterans has been the picture of health in recent years. Now is the time to invest in a potential breakout at a position bereft of elite talent.
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