RADIO
With free agency mainly wrapped up and the NFL Draft upon us, this is the ultimate time of excitement for fantasy football dynasty leagues! Rookie drafts are taking place, the market is being completely altered with so much player movement; what else could you ask for?
There are many differences between dynasty leagues and redraft leagues. However, the main one has to be the 365-day-a-year commitment that comes with dynasty leagues. Truly, managing a dynasty league is very similar to being the general manager for an NFL team- the offseason is spent scouring the market for trades, in addition to acquiring players through the rookie draft.
We've recently gone over the top targets for rookie drafts at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Today, we will be shifting our attention to the trade market. As we wait for the NFL Draft to take place, who are some players you should have your eye on? If you are looking to improve your dynasty team's roster, as any manager should be looking to, these eight players should definitely be on your radar. Who are they? Without further ado, it is time for the great reveal!
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WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Sometimes, a player's stock can drop dramatically, and it may not even be due to anything in their control. That is where we find ourselves with Michael Thomas currently. Due to an ankle injury, Thomas missed the entire 2021 season, as well as 10 games in 2020. Thus, he's essentially gone two years with very minimal impact; as he also ages, there are legitimate reasons why dynasty managers should be concerned.
However, this is a concern managers of contending teams can take advantage of. It's easy to forget, but Thomas was the consensus #1 receiver in redraft leagues prior to the 2020 season and was still being drafted in the top-10 in 2021 drafts prior to it being announced that he was undergoing an ankle injury. In other words, this is not your typical run-of-the-mill wide receiver.
Few have put together a three-year stretch like Thomas was able to do between 2017 and 2019. I mean, these numbers are absolutely absurd:
- 2017: 139 targets, 104 receptions, 1245 receiving yards, 90.9 PFF receiving grade
- 2018: 146 targets, 125 receptions, 1405 receiving yards, 91.6 PFF receiving grade
- 2019: 180 targets, 149 receptions, 1725 receiving yards, 90.7 PFF receiving yard
During this stretch, Thomas finished as the overall WR6 in back-to-back years in 2017 and 2018 before vaulting up as the undisputed #1 receiver in 2019. While some may be concerned that this is mainly due to playing with Drew Brees, that would not be backed up by his statistics in games without Brees:
- Week 3, 2019 at SEA: 5 Receptions, 54 Yards, 1 Touchdown
- Week 4, 2019 vs DAL: 9 Receptions, 95 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
- Week 5, 2019 vs TB: 11 Receptions, 182 Yards, 2 Touchdowns
- Week 6, 2019 at JAX: 8 Receptions, 89 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
- Week 7, 2019 at CHI: 9 Receptions, 131 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
- Week 11, 2020 vs ATL: 9 Receptions, 104 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
- Week 12, 2020 at DEN*: 4 Receptions, 50 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
- Week 13, 2020 at ATL: 9 Receptions, 105 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
- Week 14, 2020 at PHI: 8 Receptions, 84 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
*Only Ran 14 Routes
Those are certainly WR1-type numbers. Even though Jameis Winston is nowhere near the accurate quarterback that Brees was, he does enable another potential aspect of Thomas' profile-more production down the field. Regardless, he at the moment comes with little target competition again, and although the team is likely to add a receiver in the early rounds of the draft, he'll still come into the 2022 season likely to have one of the highest target shares of any receiver in the league.
An extremely talented receiver with a tremendous opportunity in terms of target completion being valued as the 43rd receiver in dynasty right now? Sign me up. I understand the age component, but if you are a contending team, you are getting a player with established top-10 upside for the upcoming season at the price of potentially just a 2022 early-second round pick. If you have your eyes on the prize, that is a move I highly recommend exploring. We'll see what happens in the future, but for now, defenders still "can't guard Mike"!
WR Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
Coming into last season, there were plenty of skeptics when it came to Kadarius Toney's ability to produce at the NFL levels. Some indicators that analysts look at, such as his college dominator rating (31st percentile), college target share (48th percentile), and his breakout age (23rd percentile), all ranked below average, which certainly wasn't ideal in terms of his projection.
At the end of the day, though, Toney still went in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Clearly, the NFL, or at least the Giants, saw something with him, and that paid off during his rookie season. Injuries limited him to 196 routes run, but he averaged a strong 2.14 yards/route run while earning a quality 74.4 PFF receiving grade. As a rookie, that is impressive.
Toney isn't someone who is going to stretch the field vertically. Thus, for him to succeed, it's going to come in terms of commanding a lot of targets as a receptions machine while making plays after the catch. Well, both of those things happened in 2021; his 28.9% target rate ranked seventh amongst qualified receivers, while his six yards after catch/reception ranked in the top-10. When a player can show all the qualities that he was supposed to bring to the table, that is encouraging.
Now, with new head coach Brian Daboll taking over, Toney's skillset can be utilized even more optimally in what should be a better-functioning offense. It's very unlikely the team adds any more target completion, making him the likely leader in the clubhouse in terms of projected targets for next season. Meanwhile, he's still only 23-years-old! We almost certainly haven't seen the best of him, yet he's already shown enough to expect him to make a notable impact next season. Plus, who doesn't want a fun player like this on your team:
Kadarius Toney with Brian Daboll is going to be fun pic.twitter.com/bsGj5N4sEx
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) April 4, 2022
WR Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Generally, we tend to place smaller, speedy receivers into a "volatile deep threat" bucket. Essentially, the assumption is that these types of players offer big-play ability that gives them upside, but a lot of variances that give them a lower floor. Thus, they may be better suited in best-ball formats with automated lineups as opposed to traditional lineups. Yet, as Marquise Brown is demonstrating, that isn't always the case.
If you look at the overall statistics from Brown over the first three years of his career, it would seem like his efficiency isn't progressing, if not slightly declining:
- 2019: 70.6 PFF receiving grade, 1.81 yards/route run
- 2020: 70.1 PFF receiving grade, 1.72 yards/route run
- 2021: 68.7 PFF receiving grade, 1.61 yards/route run
Yet, more context needs to be given here. See, in Week 14, Lamar Jackson injured his ankle, missing the rest of the season. Brown struggled to get into sync with backups Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson, leading to poor production the rest of the season. Yet, before then, he had a career year:
- 75 PFF receiving grade, 1.99 yards/route run, 8.6 targets/game, 75 receiving yards/game
From Weeks 1 through 13, Brown was the overall WR17. His 870.3 PFF expected receiving yards, meanwhile, ranked 10th amongst wide receivers. For the season, his 26.7% target share ranked 12th, while he had the eighth-highest route win rate of the season. In other words, he quietly performed at a high-level last season.
Yet, due to how he finished the season, Brown now isn't quite being priced (WR30) where he should be in dynasty circles, based on how he performed with Jackson under center. While you may expect the targets to come down with a healthy Rashod Bateman in his second year, there's some wiggle room, especially since he finished with the eighth-most unrealized air yards last season. As a 24-year-old only entering his fourth season, there is a lot to be optimistic about, and the cost to acquire him is not large by any means.
Hey, Brown's future looks so bright, they're going to have to send that movie straight to Hollywood! Well, Hollywood, Florida, that is!
RBs James Conner (ARI) and Leonard Fournette (TB)
Running backs are always tricky trade targets for dynasty leagues. Since the average running back experiences his peak at the beginning of their career generally, they are generally best acquired through rookie drafts where you can get them in their prime. However, what do you do if you're a contending team in need of running back help?
In that case, I encourage you to take a very close look at James Conner and Leonard Fournette. Yes, I know; targeting running backs who are past their rookie contracts is a scary proposition in dynasty leagues. Yet, if you're looking for two players that can be key drivers to you winning a championship, then the narrative changes when it comes to these two players.
Let us start with Conner. Yes, he isn't going to replicate his 18 total touchdowns, which allowed him to finish sixth in PPR points per game last season. Yet, the usage makes up for it. See, only Jonathan Taylor had more expected rushing touchdowns last year than Conner, who was the Cardinals' sole goal-line back. Now, after re-signing with Arizona and Chase Edmonds out of the picture, Conner gets to be the same type of three-down role that we've seen head coach Kliff Kingsbury prefer to give to his running backs.
For perspective, with Edmonds out of the picture between Weeks 9 and 14, Conner had the second-most PPR points per game and ranked sixth in expected fantasy points per game. During this span, he averaged 17 carries per game and 5.2 targets per game; that'll certainly play, especially if he continues to be valued as a fringe top-30 running back.
Fournette, meanwhile, has a much simpler case. After taking on a true three-down role in a very productive Bucs offense, he finished as the RB6 in points per game and expected fantasy points per game. His receiving production was spread out rather evenly, and there aren't any reasons to expect different usage this season. Volume and the productiveness of the offense tend to be the two key variables for running backs, and Fournette has both; there's a strong chance he finishes in a similar range to where he finished last year.
Both of these players are three-down backs that could be considered top-10 running backs for redraft PPR leagues. In other words, they are the perfect targets for contending teams. Yes, I know that age is a concern, but at some point, you have to make the necessary moves to compete, right? For the cost of a late first-round pick, I highly recommend taking a swing for it all by going after one of these two players.
QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Yes, I know that Justin Fields didn't have the type of rookie season we were looking for him last year. Considered by some to be the #1 quarterback in last year's draft for both real-life and fantasy purposes, the expectations were high for Fields to make an immediate impact coming in from Ohio State. Unfortunately, with just a 6.9 yards/pass attempt and a 60.8 PFF passing grade, that didn't come to fruition.
Yet, I remain optimistic about Fields' outlook moving forward, particularly in fantasy. For starters, there were some overall positives from his rookie season. The 23-year-old maintained the strong aggressiveness he showed in college with a 10.1 average depth of target, allowing him to post a 6.1% big-time throw rate. That number was tied for the third-highest in the league and speaks to the consistent big-play ability that Fields has.
Most importantly, though, Fields continues to offer a lot of upside as a rusher. When he first took over the starting job in Chicago, the young quarterback was reluctant to take off and scramble, often preferring to try to stay within schedule. However, as the season developed, he started to take advantage of his raw abilities. Excluding a Week 11 game that he left early due to injury, Fields averaged eight rush attempts/game and 56.33/rush attempts per game over his final six contests.
For perspective, that is nearly a 1000-yard rushing pace for a full 16-game season. There's a reason he finished as a top-10 quarterback in his final four full games; you can't overlook that rushing upside. However, there are also reasons to expect a leap in his passing production.
See, Fields wasn't your run-of-the-mill quarterback prospect. He earned a PFF passing grade of 92 or higher in both of his seasons as a starter, while his 8.4% big-time-throw rate and 2.3% turnover-worthy rate is a tremendous combination. Add in his unprecedented accuracy (77.9%) despite a high average depth of target (11.6), and there was very little to be concerned about.
The accuracy is the key here. That, for some reason, wasn't there for Fields last year, but unless you believe that a quarterback suddenly can close the ability to throw an accurate pass consistently, then it would be quite reasonable to expect a rebound performance in that department. Plus, he was a rookie quarterback!
We've seen plenty of players take the second-year leap, and Fields should be next in line. Are we going to let a small sample size take away from his college career so quickly? The rushing upside is there, the big-play ability through the air is there, and the accuracy should come. While he is being priced as the #3 quarterback from the rookie class behind Trevor Lawrence, who has significantly less rushing upside, take advantage! Hopefully, he can be the Fields of your dreams!
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