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It is never too early to figure out which running backs are going to be the best sleepers in fantasy football next season – even when this season’s Super Bowl was played less than a week ago.
Even though the NFL is still a passing league dominated by its quarterbacks and wide receivers, running backs are more important than ever in fantasy football. The workhorses are fewer and farther between as the dreaded running-back-by-committee strategy is still being employed by much of the league, so if you can hook your fantasy wagon to two or three top tailbacks then you have to be a favorite in your fantasy league.
Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt won this year’s rushing title with the lowest yardage total since Hall of Famer Barry Sanders won the rushing crown with 1,304 yards back in 1990, so fantasy owners should not expect the yards and touchdowns they used to get a few years ago from their backs. But finding a sleeper or two at running back can be instrumental in winning a fantasy championship. So who are the early candidates to be next season’s Alex Collins or Latavius Murray? Here are three early 2018 sleepers at RB!
Undervalued Running Backs for 2018
Isaiah Crowell, Free Agent
Being the No. 1 running back on the Cleveland Browns these past two years has been about as great as being the top cook at a fast food establishment. There is only so much you can do when the ingredients you have to work with are not that good.
Crowell averaged 900 rushing yards and 34 receptions per season over the past two years and added nine touchdowns. He was able to rush for 853 yards in 2017 even though 27 other teams called more running plays than his Browns did. But Crowell killed fantasy owners with some god-awful games (eight games with 41 rushing yards or less), and sometimes those were during weeks where the Browns had to abandon the run because they trailed immediately and had to pass on every down from the second quarter on.
Crowell is one of the top free-agent running backs available this offseason, and with several teams starving for backfield help (Detroit, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Indianapolis, New York Giants), his services should be in demand. Most situations would be more beneficial for his fantasy value than how he was used in Cleveland since his supporting casts would be more talented and his new offense would likely have a better run-pass balance. Keep your eyes on Crowell during the offseason and sees who he signs with. He should be able to rush for 1,000 yards for the first time in his career – as long as he signs with the right team (meaning not the Browns).
Samaje Perine, Washington Redskins
The running game has taken a back seat in Jay Gruden’s offensive game plans in Washington, and that was evident when Perine was the leading rusher this past season despite rushing for a paltry 603 yards. But now that quarterback Kirk Cousins looks like he has been replaced by newly-acquired Alex Smith, the Redskins rushing attack could be primed for a revival. Smith-led offenses finished in the top 10 in rushing yards four of the five seasons he was the starting signal caller with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Perine is a downhill grinder who is the perfect complement to all-around greyhound Chris Thompson. If Washington upgrades its average-at-best offensive line and the Skins utilize Smith’s mastery of run-pass option plays, Perine could gain ground between the tackles and be the team’s red-zone back. Former starting tailback Rob Kelley might not be long for Washington’s long-term plans, and Thompson is coming off of a broken leg and is someone Gruden does his best not to overuse.
If Washington does not add a veteran or draft a back this offseason, Perine will be the favorite to split touches with Thompson, and who knows how well Thompson will recover from his serious injury? Keep Perine on your fantasy radar over the next few months and see how the Skins’ situation shakes out leading up to training camp.
Joe Williams, San Francisco 49ers
The 2017 fourth-rounder had his rookie campaign ruined by an ankle injury, so he gave fantasy owners as much as long snappers, backup punters and waterboys do. But with No. 1 runner Carlos Hyde an unrestricted free agent and breakout star Matt Breida first in line to become the top tailback if Hyde bolts, Williams could be a super sleeper.
Hyde could fetch multimillions on the open market and be a bell cow back for a number of teams. I would lean towards him not returning to the 49ers. Meanwhile, Breida could be the Right Said Fred of running backs – a one-hit wonder who flames out after initial success. If these things happen, Williams is the next man on the depth chart and could work wonders with Jimmy Garoppolo running the offense and opening up running room by keeping defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage due to his pinpoint passing.
We have no idea what Williams could do since the small sample size we have seen came in college. He could be the next Alvin Kamara, or the next Matt Jones. What we do know is that San Francisco is a team on the rise with an offense that has improved dramatically thanks to Garoppolo. We also know the 49ers are not loaded at running back, and Williams is waiting in the wings. He is a deep sleeper deluxe at this point.
Other Running Backs You Should Not Sleep On
Corey Clement, Philadelphia Eagles
The undrafted rookie average 4.3 yards per carry during the season and was a Super Bowl hero after catching four passes for 100 yards and a spectacular touchdown. With LeGarrette Blount being a free agent and Jay Ajayi not a steady starter after he flamed out in Miami, Clement could do damage if given the opportunity to touch the ball 10-15 times per game.
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman dealt with knee and concussion issues this past season, so Atlanta may be apt to give Coleman more touches next season. Coleman will be in his contract year and looking to turn every run and catch into multimillions next offseason, so do not be shocked to see him have the best year of his short career.
