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It is never too early to check a crystal ball to see what the future might hold --- especially in fantasy football.
Detroit’s T.J. Hockenson had an injury-marred rookie campaign in 2019 that ruined the title hopes of many fantasy general managers, but the former first-round pick rebounded like Dennis Rodman in his sophomore season. When the smoke cleared on 2020, Hockenson was a top-five fantasy tight end and now enters 2021 as the Lions’ No. 1 weapon in their passing attack. Green Bay’s Robert Tonyan was a part-time player in 2019. All he did last year was catch 11 touchdown tosses from Aaron Rodgers. Washington’s Logan Thomas was a fantasy zero during his first four seasons in the NFL. This past season, he was a fantasy hero thanks to his career-best 72-670-6 line. The bottom line is tight ends can have breakout years that turn fantasy teams into championship teams.
Who will be the breakouts at the tight end position in fantasy football in 2021? Here is a look at my early favorites! And no, Tim Tebow did not make the cut!
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Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings
2020 Stats: 30 receptions, 365 yards, 5 TD
Smith Jr. did not blow any fantasy managers’ doors off with his catches or his yardage during his first pair of professional seasons, but he showed some flashes of brilliance and dynasty league keeper potential towards the end of his sophomore campaign. Smith Jr. caught the scant Kirk Cousins passes that were not aimed at wonderful wideouts Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson and turned them into touchdowns. He scored five touchdowns over a five-game stretch, including a two-score game during Week 16 that probably won millions of fantasy managers their league titles.
Smith Jr. had been stuck in a timeshare with longtime Vikings favorite Kyle Rudolph for the past two years that stunted his fantasy growth, but Rudolph was released in the offseason and signed with the New York Giants. Now, Smith Jr. is Minnesota’s top tight end entering 2021, and he should set career-highs across the board as long as he stays healthy and stays in Cousins’ good graces in the red zone. Look for Smith Jr. to double his yardage amount in his third season and to find the end zone eight times as he ascends to a superb TE1 in fantasy football.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
2020 Stats: 24 receptions, 288 receiving yards, 3 TD
Knox has not done many fantasy favors for anybody during his short career. Buffalo’s beefy tight end has a 52-676-5 line over a two-year span, which are numbers for an average fantasy TE over a one-year period. We all know Stefon Diggs is Josh Allen’s top target. Most of us also know that Allen’s former college teammate, Jacob Hollister, joined Buffalo this offseason on a one-year contract. This all sounds like a recipe for fantasy disaster for Mr. Knox.
But Knox has a couple of things going for him heading into the upcoming season. One is his target conversion rate has nowhere to go but up. His 54.5 percent rate from 2020 was worst on the Bills and should rise greatly this season with another year of working together under both Knox and Allen’s belts.
The other is how Knox improved so much during the latter portion of last season. He scored three touchdowns over his last six regular-season outings and averaged 5.4 targets per game over his final five games, plus caught touchdown tosses in two of Buffalo’s three playoff contests. Knox has more ability and upside than Hollister and should cement himself as Buffalo’s present and future tight end in 2021. 650 yards and seven scores are not out of the realm of possibility for him, and maybe he even becomes Tonyan-like and gives fantasy managers double-digit touchdowns.
Drew Sample, Cincinnati Bengals
2020 Stats: 40 receptions, 349 receiving yards, 1 TD
The sample size on Sample is small since he has only played one-and-a-half seasons and barely contributed fantasy-wise until the last couple months of the 2020 campaign. One touchdown in 25 games and an 8.7 YPC in 2020 does not make fantasy managers think this former second-round pick is the second coming of Shannon Sharpe. Yet, despite the fact Sample will have to fight off veteran C.J. Uzomah and three explosive wide receivers (Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase) for precious targets, Cincy’s young tight end still has a shot to break out in my mind.
Franchise quarterback Joe Burrow should be ready to rock Week 1 after suffering his season-ending knee injury last year. Uzomah is coming off a season-ending Achilles injury and should be the block-first guy while Sample is the catch-first guy in the tight end tandem. With Cincinnati’s speedy young wideouts keeping secondaries distracted, Sample should find openings over the middle and especially near the end zone. Sample did not pile up stats in college, so there is no reason to think he will suddenly have a 1,000-yard year, but could he be like Cris Carter early in his career and catch nothing but touchdowns? Never say never.
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