Early 2021 Breakouts: Wide Receiver

As we reach the threshold of this year’s highly-anticipated NFL Draft, many of you are actively searching for every fragment of information that can be deployed toward constructing your rosters. Regardless of whether you are actively involved in reshaping your dynasty teams or are among the rising number of participants in best-ball leagues, you have been adjusting your player preferences as an ever-evolving fantasy landscape is altered by the offseason player movement.

That is why the collection of resources from RotoBaller is unending. This includes our continual news, data-infused analysis, and fresh rankings. All of which is built to help you navigate the challenges of managing your teams - regardless of what format you are involved with. That includes our breakdowns of players at each position that should become critical components on your 2021 rosters.

This article will examine five wide receivers who are now positioned to deliver breakout seasons. We lack a universal definition for what constitutes a breakout year. But for the purposes of this article, the players that are included will benefit from a favorable combination of talent and opportunity that should elevate them beyond the tiers where they were positioned during 2020.

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CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys 

The former Consensus All-American (2019) collected 127 receptions, accumulated 2,485 yards, and generated 25 touchdowns during his final two seasons at Oklahoma. He also entered the NFL with a monumental collection of skills, which prompted the expectation that he would quickly operate as a highly productive weapon at the NFL level. This presented the Cowboys with an incentive to capitalize on their good fortune to find him available with the 17th overall pick during 2020’s NFL Draft.

Lamb’s extensive list of positive attributes also fueled optimism that he might attain breakout status as a rookie, and his promising numbers with Dak Prescott under center make it reasonable to believe that this would have occurred if Prescott had evaded injury throughout the year.

Prescott’s season concluded prematurely in Week 5 (ankle). But Lamb’s usage and output when Prescott was guiding the Cowboys’ attack have blended with his receiving proficiency to vault him atop the list of the 2021 breakout candidates.

#COWBOYS FILM ROOM ?: Dak Prescott goes to deep to CeeDee Lamb for the TD! ✭ pic.twitter.com/Guy9NYsWNA

— The Cowboys Network (@TheCowboysNet) April 2, 2021

Lamb quickly soared to fifth overall in receiving yards (374/93.5 per game) from Weeks 2-5 and was also eighth in receptions (24/6 per game). He captured 7+ targets in each of those contests, which propelled him to 11th in that category (34/8.5 per game). He was also 16th in air yards (357) while averaging 14.8 yards per reception and 10.7 yards per target entering the Cowboys’ Week 6 matchup with Arizona.

Weeks 2-5	Rec Yards	Targets	Targets/Gm	Receptions	Air Yards
Stefon Diggs	423	42	10.5	28	429
D.K. Metcalf	401	31	7.8	18	537
DeAndre Hopkins	377	37	9.3	31	310
Robby Anderson	375	38	9.5	30	349
CeeDee Lamb	374	34	8.5	24	357
Calvin Ridley	355	38	9.5	20	649
Terry McLaurin	352	39	9.8	24	424
Allen Robinson	347	48	12	30	458
Justin Jefferson	345	22	5.5	17	312
Amari Cooper	343	41	10.3	29	385
Tyler Boyd	329	35	8.8	28	337
D.J. Moore	327	28	7	18	352
Cooper Kupp	323	31	7.8	24	202
Keenan Allen	319	42	10.5	30	363
Tyreek Hill	318	29	7.3	17	487

But that was also Lamb’s first full contest following Prescott’s season-ending injury. Lamb tied his season-high with 11 targets in Week 6, but his averages dropped to 5.9 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 43.9 yards per game from Weeks 7-16.

Weeks 2-5	Yards/Gm	Targets/Gm	Recepts/Gm	Air Yards/Gm
CeeDee Lamb	93.5	8.5	6	93.5

 

Weeks 7-16	Yards/Gm	Targets/Gm	Recepts/Gm	Air Yards/Gm
CeeDee Lamb	43.9	5.9	3.7	56.1

He still collected the third-highest number of targets among members of his rookie class (111/6.9 per game), and was second only to Justin Jefferson in receptions (74/4.6 per game) and receiving yards (935/58.4 per game). He was also second among first-year receivers in red-zone targets (13), and also finished 10th overall with 18 receptions of 20+ yards.

If Lamb had maintained the per-game averages that he had constructed from Weeks 2-5, he would have accrued 136 targets, 96 receptions, and 1,496 receiving yards during his initial season. However, he possesses the talent to reach those numbers while operating with Prescott throughout 2021 – even though he will be functioning within an offense that contains other potent weapons.

Amari Cooper led all receivers in targets before Prescott’s departure (51/12.9 per game) and will retain his status as a valuable component. Michael Gallup led Dallas in targets (69/7.7 per game) and receptions (40/4.4 per game) from Weeks 8-17. However, he only averaged 6.0 targets and 3.3 receptions per game with Prescott under center. The Dallas signal-caller also distributed 18.8% of his targets to Cowboy running backs before his injury, and both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will remain involved as pass-catchers once again.

The Cowboys' aerial attack will also benefit greatly if their offensive line can elude further injuries, after Tyron Smith, La’El Collins, and Zac Martin missed a combined 36 games in 2020. Sustained health would allow them to function as one of the league’s most effective units.

Lamb operated in the slot on 86% of his routes. But his acumen as a route runner blends favorably with his elusiveness in helping him gain separation regardless of how he is deployed. He should function as a high-end WR2. But he could also challenge Cooper for the distinction of performing as the Cowboys’ premier receiving weapon.

 

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

Aiyuk assembled 1,533 yards and 19 touchdowns during his two seasons at Sierra Junior College before transferring to Arizona State in 2018. He was stationed firmly behind teammate N’Keal Harry on the Sun Devil depth chart as Harry accumulated  73 receptions and 1,088 yards - which more than doubled the totals that were generated by Aiyuk (33 receptions/474 yards).

But Aiyuk became Arizona State’s primary receiving option in 2019 while collecting 65 receptions, accruing 1,192 yards, and scoring eight touchdowns. The results of his final collegiate season incentivized Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to jettison three draft picks in order to trade up for Aiyuk during Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft.

The gap separating the divergent careers of Aiyuk and Harry will only expand as time progresses, as Harry’s disastrous first two seasons have placed him on the unwanted path toward permanent designation as a bust. But Aiyuk constructed one of the most promising seasons among first-year receivers during 2020. A hamstring issue sidelined him during the 49ers’ Week 1 matchup while also limiting him to three targets, two receptions, and 21 yards in Week 2.

But that uninspiring start quickly became insignificant after he captured five of his eight targets and accrued 70 yards in Week 3. That began a 10-game sequence in which he collected 10 receptions of 20+ yards, rose to eighth in red-zone targets (14), and averaged 9.1 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 71.2 yards per game. That productive span was fueled by Aiyuk’s usage and output from Weeks 8-15, as he soared to the NFL lead in targets per game (12.4).

Aiyuk also missed four matchups during the season (hamstring/ankle/COVID-19). But he still led the 49ers in targets (96/8.0 per game), receptions (60/5 per game), receiving yards (748/62.3 per game), and receiving touchdowns (five).

The topic of Aiyuk’s numbers both with and without Deebo Samuel and George Kittle on the field was examined here. Aiyuk did generate favorable results in some contests when Samuel and Kittle were absent. However, he also delivered productive outings with all three receiving weapons on the field. That includes Week 7 when Aiyuk assembled 115 yards, caught six of seven targets, and averaged 19.2 yards per reception. Opposing defenses will also be forced to reduce the attention that is earmarked for Aiyuk when Samuel and Kittle are in San Francisco’s lineup.

Brandon Aiyuk days away from the 2021 #49ersDraft!

? #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC pic.twitter.com/pk3Rsy108z

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) April 18, 2021

San Francisco’s March 26 trade with Miami has allowed the 49ers to secure the third overall selection in Thursday’s NFL Draft. This has ignited massive speculation surrounding their intentions with the coveted pick. But Aiyuk thrived while operating with a combination of Jimmy Garoppolo (six starts), Nick Mullins (eight starts), and C.J. Beathard (two starts) last season, and should remain prolific regardless of who is guiding the offense. Aiyuk’s collection of skills will also be maximized by Shanahan, who will schematically place the second-year receiver on the pathway toward a breakout year.

 

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

Jeudy joined an imposing arsenal of receiving talent when he arrived at Alabama, including Calvin Ridley, DeVonta Smith, Henry Ruggs III, Irv Smith Jr., Cam Sims, and Robert Foster. But Jeudy exceeded 100 targets as a sophomore in 2018 while finishing third overall in touchdowns (14) and 10th in receiving yardage (1,315). He also ascended into first-team All-American status in 2019 after collecting 110 targets, accumulating 77 receptions, and accruing 1,163 yards. Those accomplishments provided the rationale for Denver to secure him with the 15th overall selection during 2020’s NFL Draft.

The Broncos' passing attack that had ranked just 28th during 2019 (194.7 yards per game) was also 27th in attempts per game (31.5), 27th in red-zone touchdown percentage (47.6), and dead last in passing touchdowns (16). But Jeudy's arrival coincided with the second-round selection of K.J. Hamler while infusing additional talent into a receiving unit that also included Courtland Sutton. The presence of second-year tight end Noah Fant enhanced this mix of components that appeared capable of igniting the Broncos’ aerial efforts - providing that Drew Lock would perform efficiently under center.

Unfortunately, Sutton was only involved on 31 snaps before a torn ACL abruptly ended his season. That injury elevated Jeudy into Denver’s WR1 responsibilities, and the numbers surrounding his usage as a downfield weapon were favorable. He captured 8+ targets during six of his first 10 matchups, which propelled him to 15th overall with 77 targets (7.7 per game) from Weeks 1-11. He was also third in air yards entering Week 12 (1,110) while trailing league leader Ridley by just 12 yards.

Weeks 1-11	Air Yards
Calvin Ridley	1,122
D.K. Metcalf	1,117
Jerry Jeudy	1,110
Tyreek Hill	1,093
Stefon Diggs	1,047
A.J. Green	1,044
D.J. Moore	993
Allen Robinson	978
Adam Thielen	977
Terry McLaurin	945
Tyler Lockett	938
Tee Higgins	928
Robby Anderson	888
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	888
Marquise Brown	887
D.J. Chark	868
Mike Williams	865
Chase Claypool	864

Only four receivers surpassed his season-long total of 1,541 air yards, which also led all rookies. Jeudy also finished second among newcomers in targets (113/7.1 per game) while averaging 11.0 yards before catch per reception. However, other numbers from Jeudy’s first season were concerning. His 11.5% drop percentage was the highest among all receivers that accumulated 50+ targets while his substandard catch rate was only 46%. That placed him 49th among the top-50 receivers in air yards during the season.

Weeks 1-17	Air Yards	Targets	Rec	Rec Yards	Catch %	Drop %
Calvin Ridley	2018	143	90	1374	63.4	4.2
D.K. Metcalf	1768	129	83	1303	64.8	7
Stefon Diggs	1713	166	127	1535	76.5	3
Tyreek Hill	1708	135	87	1276	64.4	7.4
Jerry Jeudy	1541	113	52	856	46	11.5
D.J. Moore	1515	118	66	1193	56.4	6
Allen Robinson	1454	151	102	1250	67.5	2
Marvin Jones	1441	115	76	978	66.1	5.2
Chase Claypool	1438	109	62	873	56.4	6.4
DeAndre Hopkins	1423	160	115	1407	72.8	0.6
Justin Jefferson	1421	125	88	1400	70.4	3.2
A.J. Green	1417	104	47	523	44.8	2.9
Brandin Cooks	1359	119	81	1150	68.1	3.4
Mike Evans	1327	109	70	1006	64.2	6.4
D.J. Chark	1326	93	53	706	57.6	3.3
Robby Anderson	1318	136	95	1096	69.3	4.4
Terry McLaurin	1310	134	87	1118	64.9	2.2
Davante Adams	1309	149	115	1374	77.2	1.3

While the negative impact of Jeudy’s drops was self-imposed, his numbers were partially impacted by Lock’s continued deficiencies. Denver’s second-year signal-caller finished 30th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). He was also fourth overall in average intended air yards but was just 18th in completed air yards, according to Next Gen Stats. He also finished 35th in completion percentage (57.3), and only managed a 16:15 touchdown to interception ratio. These shortcomings contributed to Denver’s rankings of 26th in passing offense (215.7 yards per game) and 28th in points per possession (1.7).

The newly acquired Teddy Bridgewater provides an efficient but uninspiring alternative to Lock. Bridgewater’s 69.1 completion percentage easily exceeded Lock’s. But Bridgewater was also 30th in touchdown percentage (3.0), while manufacturing a 15:11 touchdown to interception ratio last season. All of which was assembled with D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel available as his receiving weaponry.

However, Jeudy is fully capable of decreasing the troubling number of drops regardless of who resides under center. Continued development as an NFL receiver should also be expected, as he builds upon the exceptional skills that he already possesses.

Jerry Jeudy route running already on god mode pic.twitter.com/fXCNDF57nq

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 15, 2021

He is adept at gaining separation as an accomplished route runner while his explosiveness and vertical presence create home run capabilities during every series that he is on the field. Sutton’s return will create competition for targets. But Sutton's presence will also force opponents to allocate resources that would otherwise have been deployed to neutralize Jeudy. The unsettled situation at quarterback remains an important element in Jeudy’s prospects for a 2021 breakout year. But his talent should merge with other favorable factors toward helping him reach the expectations of his Round 1 selection.

 

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

The NFL Draft will transform the value of various players, including receivers that are being discussed in this article. That certainly applies to Higgins, who would encounter additional competition for targets if Cincinnati selects Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth overall pick. But if the Bengals bolster their offensive line by securing Penei Sewell, or focus their attention on attaining Kyle Pitts, then Higgins’ prospects of delivering a breakout season will rise.

Higgins generated 2,103 yards and 25 touchdowns during his final two seasons at Clemson while accumulating 1,167 yards and 13 touchdowns as a junior in 2019. He later became the seventh wide receiver to be selected during the 2020 NFL Draft when Cincinnati secured him with the 33rd overall pick. However, he ultimately finished third among all rookies in receptions (67/4.2 per game), receiving yards (908/56.8 per game), and receiving touchdowns (six), and was also fifth with 108 targets (6.8 per game). Higgins also accomplished those numbers despite failing to register a reception in Weeks 1 and 17.

A rookie season to remember for @teehiggins5. He's just 22 & only getting better! ?

Visit https://t.co/KpeqK4A9vM for more highlights. pic.twitter.com/GTDH3PrSu1

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 18, 2021

He contended with a hamstring issue during Cincinnati’s 2020 training camp, and the lingering impact limited him to 15 snaps during the Bengals' season opener. His problematic hamstring also relegated him to just three snaps during Cincinnati’s Week 17 matchup. But if you extract both games in which he was sidelined by injury, Higgins was ninth overall in air yards (1,254) while his per-game averages improved to 7.6 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 64.9 yards. He also collected at least six targets in 12 of 14 matchups during that span.

Higgins also assembled his output despite the added hurdle of operating without Joe Burrow as his quarterback from Week 12-17. Higgins was leading all rookies in targets entering Week 12 (71/7.9 per game), which also placed him 13th overall. He had also risen to sixth in air yards (928), 16th in receiving yards (629/69.9 per game), and 20th in receptions (43/4.8 per game) from Weeks 2-11.

Rookes Weeks 2-11	Targets	Targ/Gm	Rec	Rec Yards	Air Yards	TDs
Tee Higgins	71	7.9	43	629	928	4
Jerry Jeudy	69	7.7	33	533	1010	2
CeeDee Lamb	68	7.6	43	570	680	4
Chase Claypool	63	7	37	520	832	8
Justin Jefferson	56	6.2	43	822	776	4
Brandon Aiyuk	56	7	35	446	540	3
Darnell Mooney	53	5.9	30	313	769	2
KJ Hamler	44	5.5	25	275	417	1
Laviska Shenault	35	5	27	286	181	0
Gabriel Davis	29	3.2	17	259	408	3
Michael Pittman	29	4.8	22	292	228	1
Denzel Mims	25	6.3	13	217	437	0

But in the aftermath of Burrow’s season-ending knee injury, Higgins ran routes with Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley spearheading Cincinnati’s attack. Allen averaged 28 attempts and 18 completions per game during his 277 snaps while Finley managed just 17 completions on 32 attempts with his 90 snaps under center.

Considering the sizable drop-off with efficiency that emerged following the exodus of Burrow, it would have been understandable for Higgins’ usage and production to decrease considerably with Allen and Finley under center. However, he averaged 7.2 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 55.8 yards per game from Weeks 12-16 while easily leading the Bengals in each category during that sequence (36 targets/24 receptions/279 yards). Tyler Boyd was impacted far more significantly than Higgins following Burrow’s departure, as he averaged just 5.0 targets, 2.3 receptions, and 32.5 yards with Allen and Finley.

The 6’4”, 215-pound Higgins retains an assortment of skills that supply the ingredients for a breakout season in 2021. The prospects of that occurring will improve if the Bengals fortify their offensive line. But Higgins’ status as a breakout candidate would also be negatively impacted if they select Chase with their initial pick in Thursday's draft.   

 

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

Pittman’s usage and output last season did not reach the level that was achieved by other members of his 2020 rookie class. However, he is in a position to operate as the Colts’ WR1 and remains capable of flourishing with those responsibilities.

He accrued 2,519 yards during four seasons at USC, including the 1,275 that he attained in 2019. That yardage total also placed him ninth overall during his senior season, and his appealing blend of size, athleticism, and reliability elevated him among the candidates for early-round selection during the 2020 NFL Draft. He was chosen by Indianapolis in Round 2 (34th overall) and appeared capable of quickly procuring a substantial role within the Colts’ aerial attack.

But his opportunity to make an immediate impact was curtailed by a combination of foot and calf issues, which included his placement on injured reserve. That limited him to just 13 targets (3.3 per game), 10 receptions (2.5 per game), and 79 yards (19.8 per game) entering Week 9. But he collected 15 targets in Weeks 9-10 while generating 11 receptions, 157 receiving yards, and 162 air yards. His per-game averages also rose dramatically (7.5 targets/5.5 receptions/78.5 per game) during those contests.

Big things to come from 1️⃣1️⃣.@MikePitt_Jr’s rookie highlight reel: pic.twitter.com/vKZOu4Ghuk

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) February 17, 2021

That became the most productive two-game stretch of his rookie season while he also led the Colts in multiple categories from Weeks 9-14 - targets (37/6.2 per game), receptions (23/3.8 per game), and receiving yards (339/56.5 per game). However, T.Y. Hilton emerged from a groin injury to pace Indy in targets (38/7.6 per game), receptions (23/4.6 per game), receiving yards (354/70.8 per game), air yards (542), and receiving touchdowns (four) from Weeks 13-17. Pittman’s per-game averages also diminished to 4.2 targets, 2.8 receptions, and 34.6 yards during that sequence.

Hilton’s late-season surge elevated him to a team-high 18.8% target share from Weeks 1-17. Pittman was second among Indy’s wide receivers (13.8), followed closely by Zach Pascal (13.2). However, Pittman did lead the Colts in snap share, 77.8%, and paced the team with an 83.3 share from Weeks 9-17.

Hilton and Pascal will share opportunities with Pittman once again this season. But that does not diminish Pittman's opportunity to improve his output significantly. Hilton can still accumulate respectable numbers but will turn 32 in November. Pascal can deliver productive outings on an occasional basis. But his per-game averages during his career (3.9 targets/2.3 receptions/31.3 yards) underscore his inability to accomplish that with any consistency. Former second-round selection Parris Campbell has missed 23 games in two seasons due to a myriad of injuries. But he could also become a factor within Indy's target distribution.

28 teams distributed a higher percentage of targets to their wide receivers than Indianapolis last season (51.5%). However, that number was built with Philip Rivers spearheading the offense. Pittman’s prospects of ascending to a lofty tier at his position will be affected by the degree to which Carson Wentz can resurrect his career as a Colt. His catastrophic 2020 season included finishing 34th in completion percentage (57.4), 24th in touchdown percentage (3.7), and 33rd in yards per attempt (6.0). He was also a dismal 36th in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement).

Wentz's career-worst numbers have created a cataclysmic effect on both his reputation and relevance as a fantasy option. However, Frank Reich was Wentz’s offensive coordinator in 2017 when the former Eagle constructed a 33:7 touchdown to interception ratio and achieved a career-best 7.5 touchdown percentage. If their reunion can resurrect Wentz’s rapidly descending career, then Pittman's runway toward a breakout season will expand considerably.

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