Early 2021 PPR Rankings Analysis - Wide Receiver

As we roll into our season draft, it’s time to take a glance at the seasonal rankings to see where players are being valued before things get hot and heavy come draft season. The wide receiver position is deep with talent. Many fantasy gamers will be able to fade the position during the first few rounds of the draft to capitalize on getting talent at other positions and still be able to foster a very talented stable of wide receivers.

The rankings that are being referenced are from RotoBaller’s 2021 Staff Rankings.

Tier One Analysis

Davante Adams was the most consistent wide receiver in the NFL last year with nine WR1 weeks. He had six top-three performances at the position. There’s a lot of ambiguity with his situation going into the 2021 season. His fantasy value and production are tethered to Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers decides he is not going to take another snap with the Packers, then Adams might experience a drop in his production. On the contrary, Jordan Love could perform better than expected, allowing Adams to maintain most of his player value.

Tyreek Hill is one of the most explosive wide receivers in the NFL. He finished 2020 as the WR2 with seven WR1 weeks. The Chiefs have a very efficient offense that can easily move the ball down the field. Patrick Mahomes will sling the ball all over the yard and as we know, he pairs perfectly with Hill’s skill set. As long as Hill is healthy and the offense is clicking, we should expect similar production this season.

Tier Two Analysis

Tier 2 is the tier where we have three veterans who will provide consistent production combined with A.J. Brown who is a young wide receiver who is blossoming into one of the best alpha wide receivers in the league. He had five WR1 weeks while averaging 17.39 PPR fantasy points per game in 2021. Julio Jones will be adding a little bit of firepower to the offense. The extra competition for targets could impact Brown’s ceiling or it could provide the opposite effect by allowing him to see softer coverages, making it easier for him to rack up yards after the catch on a more consistent basis.

Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Thomas are veterans who will command a large share of the passing targets in their respective offenses. Diggs and Hopkins played with new quarterbacks last season and still owned a 29 percent target share. Thomas suffered an ankle injury that prevented him from providing his typical WR1 output for fantasy gamers. This was his first non-WR1 season as he ended the 2020 season as the WR93. With Drew Brees out of the picture, it will be interesting to see if Thomas can continue to be one of the top wide receivers in the league with Jameis Winston and/or Taysom Hill at quarterback.

Tier Three Analysis

Tier 3 is a large tier and all of the receivers listed have the chance to produce in a big way this year. All of these receivers are key target hogs in their offenses. All of them also have their risks. D.K. Metcalf’s output is dependent on the Seahawks' passing volume. If they decide to go with a run-heavy approach, then we could see a dip in his numbers. Jefferson had a historic rookie season with five WR1 weeks. He was also second in the NFL with 2.66 yards per route run.

Julio Jones just experienced a major change in his situation. With him now playing with the Tennessee Titans, we don’t know how the distribution of targets is going to play out. The team’s overall passing volume is below the league average, which could create a negative impact on his production. He’s still an alpha talent, and there’s a good chance he could deliver top-tier results.

Terry McLaurin and Keenan Allen have some similar characteristics in their player profile. Both players are tremendous route runners. They are often undervalued regarding their potential output. We should see both players deliver steady production throughout the entire season.

With Jones out of the picture, Calvin Ridley is expected to see a major uptick in production. He is a candidate to finish the year as the WR1 for fantasy. The team is still going to have a high-volume passing offense and Ridley is expected to be the team’s main threat in the passing game.

Allen Robinson and Mike Evans are the grizzled veterans in this tier. They are both bigger wide receivers who garner a large share of their team’s passing targets. Robinson will be playing with a mix of Justin Fields and Andy Dalton. Considering he is known for playing with subpar quarterbacks throughout his career, there shouldn’t be much of a drop-off in his production. If anything, we could see an improvement. Evans is paired with the greatest quarterback in NFL history. As long as he is healthy, he will be receiving the deep targets.

Diontae Johnson had 10 games where he owned at least a 20 percent target share. He also has five games where he surpassed the 100-yard-mark in air yards. This led to him producing six WR1 weeks. There’s a lot of mouths to feed in Pittsburgh, but it appears Johnson is going to continue to have a key role within the offense.

Amari Cooper, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods are wide receivers who provide consistent production but tend to fail to hit their ceilings. All of these players have the chance to produce low-end WR1 numbers. If everything goes right, we could see them at the top of the rankings at the end of the season.

Tier Four Analysis

Tier 4 is a bit smaller, but it has a lot of potential. The WRs are considered relatively safe assets with some risk. Most of the risk associated with these players is coming from the fact that they are sharing the field with other talented pass-catchers. If they were the lone stud receiver in their offense, they would be ranked higher.

Chris Godwin shares the field with Mike Evans and Antonio Brown. When he was on the field, he commanded a 19 percent target share while leading the team with an average of 10 yards per target. That usage equated to one WR1 week and five WR2 weeks. Injuries impacted his production last season, but as long as he’s healthy, he’s a dependable option in fantasy.

Even with Justin Jefferson as the main target in the Vikings' offense, Adam Thielen can still hold value in fantasy football. The 30-year-old veteran is a very crafty route runner. He has produced three WR1 seasons in the last four years while sharing the field with Jefferson and Stefon Diggs. Even with him being one of the older wide receivers in the league, there’s still a chance he provides value for your fantasy team.

The Cowboys spent their first-round pick on CeeDee Lamb in 2020. He has WR1 written all over him. Even with him sharing the field with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, he still managed to own an 18 percent share of the team’s passing targets. He also played 93.2 percent of his snaps in the slot. Dak Prescott will be back this season, which will provide a big boost to the offense. Lamb is a candidate to hit WR1 production in his second year with the Cowboys.

The Carolina Panthers added Sam Darnold this offseason. The change at quarterback could be a good thing for D.J. Moore, who is an under-the-radar fantasy option this season. He commanded a 24 percent target share while averaging 13.1 yards per target. Even with the hefty workload, Moore left a lot of fantasy points on the field as he finished the season as the RB25 with four RB1 weeks.

If you want to take a swing at the pinata with hopes to land a consistent fantasy producer, then JuJu Smith-Schuster is a player you might want to take a look at. It’s been three years since Smith-Schuster was the WR8 in 2018. He’s still a very talented player in a high-volume passing offense. There’s a lot of ambiguity in the Steelers' offense. One of these wide receivers could breakout. Smith-Schuster is generally the cheaper option of the three.

Tier Five Analysis

Tier 5 is filled with wide receivers who present plenty of upside but also carry some risk. A lot of these players are sharing the field with another good wide receiver or have experienced a change in the situation, whether it be playing with a new team or a new quarterback.

Kenny Golladay is now with the New York Giants. He will be catching passes from Daniel Jones. Golladay gives the team the true alpha wide receiver they desperately needed. It’s going to be interesting to see how Golladay transitions to his new team.

The Cincinnati connection between Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase is going to be a fun show to watch. There’s plenty of room for more than one of these wide receivers to be fantasy-relevant.

Courtland Sutton’s 2020 season ended early due to a gruesome knee injury. He will be back on the field as the Broncos’ WR1. Sutton was a key component to the offense in 2019, owning a 26 percent share of the passing targets while seeing 1,407 air yards on the year.

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