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In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May using data from FFPC drafts.
We've already evaluated ADP fallers at wide receiver, running back, and quarterback.
Today, it's time to look at three tight end fallers.
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Tight Ends - ADP Fallers
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers
Had I asked you to make a blind guess at Tonyan's ADP variation, you would have probably gotten it right. Tonyan suffered the hardest hit in terms of drafting position when the Aaron Rodgers situation got at the peak of its life and the rumors grew the strongest, more than a month ago. Those two weeks in May saw Tonyan's ADP go from above the 80th pick to almost the 100th one and a near two-round fall. Uh oh.
It's funny because Packers head coach Matt LaFleur seems to be plotting a game plan based at least a little bit more on using the tight end, which was fantastic in 2020. Tonyan had a career year last season, catching 52-of-59 targets for 586 yards and a ridiculously high 11 touchdowns. That meant Tonyan became only the fourth tight end in the past 21 years to score 11+ touchdowns while catching fewer than 55 passes. Insane.
Tonyan will benefit from TE Jace Sternberger's two-game suspension to kick off the season, but will he benefit from playing under Aaron Rodgers again? That's yet to be seen. Anyway, even if Rodgers is GB's quarterback, there is no way Tonyan put up his numbers on back-to-back seasons, and the fantasy crowd knows. That's why Tonyan's ADP is now a much more reasonable TE14.
This has opened a window to draft him on the cheap, though, as he still projects as a borderline TE1 (via PFF) and a TE9 finish on the year with 151+ FP in the PPR format. As long as Tonyan stays below the 100-ADP mark, he should be a valuable target in the last part of drafts.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
What a month of June it's been for New England's tight-end unit. We kicked it off hearing about a potential 50-50 split in which both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith--if you've been living under a rock: yes, the Pats added players last free agency, including two top-tier tight ends...--are expected to eat equally on offense. Then, a few days after that, we came to know that Henry had injured his leg in the second week of June.
Henry has always dealt with health issues, so that wasn't really surprising to hear of. Then, just three days after that, it was Jonnu Smith who was forced out of practice with a hamstring injury. Either New England is doomed, or the Pats bet on damaged goods, folks. We still don't know if any of those two will have to miss time or how serious those injuries are, but there will be concerns all year long around these two TEs' health.
Henry's ADP has definitely not cratered but is slowly but surely declining each passing day. The projections have Henry as the TE13 of 2021 with Jonnu Smith ranking as the potential TE19. The difference in ADP is notable, with Jonnu at 110 and Henry at 123, more than a round of distance in 12-team drafts. Again, Henry projects to lead the unit for the Pats and to a TE1 finish.
If the ADPs of these two don't flip, Henry will be the much more valuable pick with a projection of 133+ FP in PPR leagues. He's a must-draft if you can still find him available past the 10th round and punt on the position early (which you should do if you can't score yourself one of the top-three guys at the position).
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Talking about Cole Kmet is talking about a completely different level of player to that of the prior two discussed in this column. Kmet barely projects to a TE2 finish in 2021 by PFF, and in fact, he's right now expected to close the year as the TE25, already out of that realm of players.
The start of June brought not-so-interesting news in Nick Foles being deemed the QB3 of the Bears entering 2021. Not that we care that much about that. The juicy stuff didn't take long to pop up, though, and it came in bunches. First, WR Anthony Miller was forced out of practice the second week of June with a minor injury. Then, WR Allen Robinson told reporters that he will report to camp (he had skipped voluntary workouts earlier, after signing a franchise tag). And finally, the mother of all news: head coach Matt Nagy made it clear that Andy Dalton of all men is going to be in the pocket come Week 1 no matter what.
Yes. That Andy Dalton. Not Justin Fields. Andy Dalton. It is not that playing under Fields rather than Dalton was going to turn Kmet into a must-have TE1, I know, but playing under Dalton isn't going to help much either. Kmet projects to a TE25 finish while having an ADP of TE20... and he will also be fighting veteran Jimmy Graham in Chicago.
Before saying Graham is washed, consider this: Graham was targeted inside RZ 1.3 times per game to Kmet's 0.4 and finished with eight touchdowns to the latter's two. Call me in a couple of years, and maybe I'll be thinking about drafting Kmet. Right now, at his ADP and Chicago's offensive situation, he's a no-no for me.
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