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Free agency can be a great opportunity for players to find new homes that mesh with their playing styles and help them achieve their potential. But it can also be a chance for players to think they're doing that and then wind up in a bad situation where they're unable to find NBA success.
This article is about the latter, and while it's only been hours since the market officially opened, we're here to analyze some of the deals that have been confirmed in advance of the 2021-22 season tipoff later this fall.
Let's take a look at some players who recently changed teams and who should find their stock cratering in advance of the 2021-22 campaign.
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Jarrett Allen, C - Cleveland Cavaliers
I'm happy for Allen, and from a purely monetary point of view, he's a clear Winner--capital W, that is. Snatching a $100 million deal from the Cavs, a team that has just drafted its center of the future with a third-overall pick, well, is no small feat. But that's precisely where this could get sour for Allen's fantasy GMs and their hopes in 2022.
Allen will have to share the floor with Evan Mobley. The consensus opinion on Mobley, at this point in his yet-to-start pro career, is that he'd be more suited to a pure center role instead of a PF/C/Court-Stretcher one at least for the first few months of his life in the Association. Obviously, we can expect Cleveland to try and mold him into a more flexible player down the road, but that sounds a little bit too much for his early days.
Allen is just not going to be shooting threes in 2022; that, I can guarantee you. He will be, once more, a big man overly-reliant on points and boards--he was one of only 15 men to finish 2021 averaging a dub-dub--but he will see fewer balls and shots with Mobley around eating from his already-low usage and rebounding numbers. Not liking this whole mess, not to mention the silly bombs-away backcourt present in Cleveland on top of that.
Evan Fournier, SG - New York Knicks
Fournier's role hasn't changed that much in the past year nor will do in 2022, although that'd mark the season in which he'll don his third-different threads in the last 12 months after being a Magic, a Celtic, and now a Knick. New York inked Fournier to a massive--for what he provides--$78-million deal that will last four seasons. The truth is that Fournier will be starting games and if he gets Coach Thibs' approval he might even see himself on the court for 35+ MPG.
The problem I see here is that 1) the Knicks don't have a very great point guard to feed Fournier (Derrick Rose? Elfrid Payton?), 2) Julius Randle and RJ Barrett will stay as the go-to offensive options, and 3) Mitchell Robinson should be back starting at the center position and also taking shots here and there too. All of that comes down to Fournier's old tale, which says he will be once more a tertiary play with limited upside.
While Fournier wasn't bad in Orlando (20-3-3-1) and didn't suffer a lot in Boston (13-3-3-1), it is also true that he's never averaged more than 3.2 RPG or 3.6 APG in the NBA while virtually playing 30+ minutes per game every season except his first two campaigns in Denver. If we have to rely on Fournier's points, it's going to get ugly. Once his Usage Rate cratered from 26.2% in Orlando to just 18% in Boston his upside got murdered. Expect the same to happen next season in MSG.
Alex Caruso, PG/SG - Chicago Bulls
A few days ago, when the Lakers traded for Russell Westbrook, I was ecstatic about Caruso's upside and fantasy appeal for the 2022 season. In acquiring Russ, LA surrendered all of Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell while going to sleep having no other than Westbrook at the PG and Talen Horton-Tucker at the SG positions in the depth chart other than Caruso. My thinking went something like "Caruso is the Lakers starting SG if they want to have some viable players--like THT--in the second unit". Alas.
Caruso signed with Chicago himself. He wanted the move. It'd have been ridiculous for Los Angeles to hand this man the $37-million deal he just signed, obviously, but the Bulls should find a place to use him. Too bad for Caruso's fantasy upside, that place and role might not be as good as the one he could have played in Los Angeles. Lonzo Ball is starting at the point, Coby White is a recently-drafted developing PG that won't stop playing, and Zach LaVine is the Bulls' best player... and happens to play SG blocking Caruso's path to a starting gig.
You'd have needed to be part of a super-large fantasy league to even considering drafting Caruso--let alone doing so with a high pick--but his situation was shaping nicely until it wasn't. In 21.4 MPG last season all Caruso did was averaging a 6-3-3-1 line. He could have seen an uptick in all counting cats with a slightly larger role or a raise of his minutes, but I'm just not convinced he will get it in Chicago. From borderline draft target to not even a prospective WW target... Ugh.
Victor Oladipo, SG - Miami Heat
I know I started this column with an intro that included some words letting you know that I'd "take a look at some players who recently changed teams", which is clearly not the case for Victor Oladipo--not entirely, at least. Oladipo is a (perhaps forgotten?) free agent this summer. When the clock hit 6pm ET on Monday, we were all glued to our Twitter feeds and reading Woj's and Shams' latest updates. Time went by, and no news popped up regarding Vic. Uh, oh.
Finally, we got a report indicating that Victor Oladipo's market might be as dry as it can get. In fact, it's probable that he stays unsigned for the next few months until teams can get an actual feeling of how Vic looks, what he can and can't do on a basketball court, and whether said teams should or not pony up big bucks to acquire the shooting guard. Truth be told, this whole story sucks for Dipo and us as basketball fans. And it's obvious Vic is just a fantasy afterthought these days, by the look of it.
Oladipo played for three teams just last season alone. He logged 9 GP with the Pacers before getting traded to Houston (20 GP) and then getting re-routed to Miami (4 GP before getting out injured for the season). Oladipo's days of getting paid $20+ million a year are surely over now, and odds are he'll never regain his peak levels of play. He wasn't bad at all last year with an average 20-5-4-1 per-game line averaging his three-team lines, shot .408/.326/.754 in 33 games, but was also putrid as advanced metrics have it: 100 ORtg (average on offense) and 114 DRtg (28th percentile on defense). Back-to-back seasons hampered by season-ending injuries are no bueno, and we should start thinking about Vic belonging to our past rather than our future.
Update: The Miami Heat have re-signed Victor Oladipo to a minimum, one-year deal. Oladipo seems to be aiming at a comeback next January/February at last, but we'll see if that comes to happen or he opts to sit the 2022 season out fully recovering and entering free agency once more come next summer. No value in drafting/adding Oladipo to your roster unless you're part of a dynasty competition and want to take a huge flier on him.
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