RADIO
It might seem early for a mock fantasy football draft, even though we are five months away from the first preseason game. What if I told you there was a whole community that is not only mocking, but drafting in real leagues already?
The MFL10 (MyFantasyLeague) community is a dedicated one that often stays one step ahead of most fantasy football players thanks to their year-long approach. In order to gain some early insight to rising and falling draft values, as well as predictions for rookie values, let's analyze some early ADP results from MFL10 leagues.
ADP values pulled from myfantasyleague.com are based on 12-team, PPR, re-draft league results from the past month.
Early MFL10 ADP Reflections
Gone Too Soon
1.11 (#11 overall) - Todd Gurley (RB, LAR)
You wouldn't think Gurley would be a first-round pick again this year after failing to reach 1,000 rushing yards or tallying 100 yards in a single game last season. You would be wrong. Many fantasy owners are betting on the "addition by subtraction" theory now that Jeff Fisher is gone. While new coach Sean McVay should inject some life into the offense, he is also a 31-year-old, first-time head coach who has a QB with half a season of NFL experience under his belt and a ragtag receiving corps. I'm willing to bet Gurley will be better than last year, but I'm not willing to burn a first-rounder to find out.
2.09 (#21 overall) - Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)
Some people never learn. As someone who was personally burned by Gronk in MFL10 last year, I wouldn't consider touching him before the fifth round. Somehow, his ADP has barely been affected by the fact he only started six games last season and caught three touchdowns. You might be able to ignore those stats if it weren't a recurring problem for him. Gronk pays off big time when he's on the field, but you need some semblance of security in the first couple of rounds unless you plan to back him up with a relatively safe TE like Zach Ertz a few rounds later. The question then turns to why you are taking two tight ends in the first seven or eight rounds...
4.08 (#44 overall) - Corey Coleman (WR, CLE)
The Browns' QB situation is once again up in the air, so Coleman's stock could fluctuate depending on which direction the team takes. Someone like Jimmy Garoppolo could bring stability to the passing game, whereas another rookie signal-caller will make Coleman's value just as unpredictable. In dynasty formats, I'm willing to invest in Coleman because of his speed (and the hope that he may eventually make his way out of Cleveland in a couple of years). For 2017, I'm still avoiding all Browns until further notice, especially in the first five rounds.
What Are You Waiting For?
4.03 (#39 overall) - DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN)
Everyone seems ready for Murray to simply fall apart at the seams. His 1,664 total yards and 12 TD last season suggest otherwise. Murray is still only 29, so he hasn't hit that magic number yet. The bigger concern is that Derrick Henry will eat into his workload more, which may have some truth to it. The truth is that even if Henry upped his carry count by 50% and we subtracted those from Murray, it would still leave 240 rush attempts for Murray. We know he will be the third-down/passing back as well, so there is no reason to suddenly push Murray out of the top 12 running backs, behind the likes of Carlos Hyde and a pair of rookies without homes yet.
6.04 (#64 overall) - Drew Brees (QB, NO)
What does the man have to do to get some respect? Win another Super Bowl ring? Well, that's not going to happen. The fact remains that Brees led the NFL in passing yards (5,208) and yards per game (325.5). This doesn't necessarily feel too late for Brees, or any other starting quarterback, these days. The main issue is the fact that he is the seventh QB off the boards, going three rounds later than Andrew Luck. Color me skeptical, but I'm having a hard time envisioning a world in which Luck outperforms Brees for fantasy purposes.
10.11 (#111 overall) - Cameron Brate (TE, TB)
Brate may not have the most upside of all tight ends, but he at least had success last season. Brate scored eight times and pulled down 57 catches for 660 yards in 2016. He became Jameis Winston's second-favorite red zone target, after Mike Evans obviously. I don't suggest drafting Brate much earlier than this, but it's a better idea to wait until Round 10 and grab him as opposed to the aging Delanie Walker, whose numbers were similar to Brate, or the perpetually injured and disappointing Eric Ebron. Both players are being drafted ahead of Brate, which seems hard to justify.
Grab Them While You Can
2.05 (#17 overall) - Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
Michael Thomas had one hell of a rookie season with 92 receptions, 1,137 yards, and nine TD. Brandin Cooks is reportedly on the trading block, with Tennessee and Philadelphia as possible suitors. If Cooks is gone by the time training camp breaks, Thomas will be the undeniable top target for Drew Brees. Thomas was one of the top picks from winning MFL10 teams last year, but unfortunately he won't take anybody by surprise this time around. It's hard to believe he has an ADP in the middle of the second-round in non-dynasty leagues already, but that's how high his stock has shot up. He is a great bet to finish in the top 10 among all WR, but you'll have to pay the price this time around, much like Allen Robinson last year (we all know how that turned out). Fortunately, Thomas is a pretty safe bet as long as Brees is behind center.
3.01 (#31 overall) - Dalvin Cook (RB, FA)
Guessing where rookies will be selected when they haven't even gone through the combine yet is like throwing darts blindfolded. These ADP values will certainly adjust once we know their ultimate landing spot, but for now you are simply betting on talent. Cook has it in boatloads, especially breakaway ability. He may not be the next Zeke Elliott, but there's a good chance he makes an immediate impact in the league. Right now, it will cost you an early third-rounder to invest in Cook. Interestingly, Leonard Fournette, who may be selected ahead of him in the real NFL draft, is being taken one pick later in MFL10 leagues at 3.02. Maybe it's because he's being linked to the Jets, which naturally should scare some people away. It's a coin flip right now as to who will be the better bet in re-draft for 2017.
7.12 (#84 overall) - Martavis Bryant (WR, PIT)
Remember him? So does everyone else. Picking Bryant as a WR3 or even WR4 would be ideal in the later rounds, but he won't last that long. Despite missing all of last season due to suspension, Bryant isn't making it out of the eighth round in most early drafts. It was obvious toward the end of last season that Antonio Brown needs help on the other side and the Markus Wheaton/Darrius Heyward-Bey/Cobi Hamilton combo isn't going to cut it. Bryant scored 14 touchdowns in his first two seasons, proving to be a nice red zone threat. If you are counting on a breakout season, you're going to have to strike more quickly than you may have anticipated.
Final Thoughts
The first couple of rounds usually leave few surprises, but it's interesting to see how RB-heavy things have become compared to last year. Zero-RB isn't completely out the window, but if you go that route you are going to need to invest in at least one decent RB earlier than you may have wanted. Cheap PPR option in later rounds include Kenneth Dixon (7.10), Giovani Bernard (8.08), and Paul Perkins (9.09). Rookies are always more highly valued in MFL10 leagues because of the slant toward dynasty and rookie leagues, so you will need to jump on one earlier than you might expect if you are new to the game. In the end, you have to find the right balance between risk and reward to find those players that may breakout without filling your team with busts. Bet on proven stars and rising young players with at least two years of success early and take chances on lesser-known rookies and comeback candidates later on. Good luck!
Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.
