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We continue our look at early summer ADP risers and fallers in order to evaluate each position in-depth and find where value lies. In this series, the focus is on identifying significant fluctuation in draft stock since the start of May using data from FFPC drafts.
We've already evaluated ADP risers at the all-important running back position.
Today, it's time to look at three risers at quarterback.
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Quarterbacks - ADP Risers
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
After finishing 2019 with a monster run for the Titans, Tannehill was able to keep his level of play up in 2020--if not actually improving it. Tannehill was drafted as the QB21 in most leagues, though he was able to close the season as the QB7 with 344.4 FP and an average of 21.5 FPPG. Even on a Titans squad that was definitely inclined toward rushing the ball and lacked top-tier receivers when not accounting for those not named A.J. Brown, Tannehill thrived.
If you have been living under a rock as of late, you might have missed the last news around Tennessee: Julio Jones is now a Titan, literally. The franchise traded for the über-great veteran receiver, who will now play opposite A.J. Brown and accompany RB Derrick Henry in one of the most fearful offenses in the league. Not bad if you're this team's quarterback, right?
While Tennessee made the most damage on the ground because Henry is a true one-of-a-kind player, the truth is that Brown was so good as to have fantasy GMs dreaming about a WR1 season from him in 2021. That might not happen anymore with Julio around, but Tannehill won't care about your fantasy league. He is entering a year in which he will have two stud targets to throw the ball to, and his ADP (although raising and raising) is a bargain as it is just that of the QB13 while Tannehill projects (via PFF) to finish as the QB8 next season to the tune of 321+ FP. Not only that, but Tannehill also has the Konami Code profile of a player given his rushing prowess, one of only eight QBs with a projection of 300+ yards on the ground and five rushing scores. Seventh-highest projected ROI, which means you better be targeting this man no later than the eighth round if you don't want to miss on drafting yourself a league winner.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington Football Team
Things can't look much better around Washington. All news we're hearing from training camp is good. Just in the month of June, we've read about WR1 Terry McLaurin saying that he's hyped to play under QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, that newly-acquired wideout Curtis Samuel is about to play all over the field without regards to the receiving profile (and even as a runner here and there in trick-plays), Dyami Brown is impressing Washington's HC Ron Rivera, and while RB Antonio Gibson is still recovering from a toe injury, he should be ready come regular-season time.
Fitzpatrick will have everything he needs to eat big time, is what I mean. Fitz is an absolute blast of a quarterback and he will play with one of--if not the--best receiving corps of his career. No player is threatening his starter role as last season Tua Tagovailoa did in Miami, so that's another positive in Fitzpatrick's upside. While it hasn't risen a ton, which is reasonable at this point in the offseason, Fitz's ADP has gone up almost a full round in the past few weeks.
Looking at PFF projections, Fitzpatrick sits at QB24 or borderline-QB2 right now with a 270+ FP expected production. But, we have yet to watch him play with the likes of McLaurin and Samuel--which could very well surpass expectations. With an ADP of QB19 and a projection of QB24, there is still a negative-value gap there that is growing larger with the current rising-ADP trend. That's a bit worrying and gives me pause when it comes to Fitz's price. Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr are going to be available at that ADP (and most probably even later) while they all project to finish inside the top-20 QBs of 2021, including Tua's QB12 projection.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
If you're determined to punt on quarterbacks and go with a streamer for most of the season, or you just like to try your like with a vet going for cheap in the second-to-last round of your draft, Big Ben might be your man. Roethlisberger's ADP hasn't moved a lot, that's true, but it's getting a bit more expensive these days, going from below-150 to almost 140, pretty much a 12th-round pick in 12-team leagues.
Roethlisberger is entering 2021 after completing a near-full season of games right after only playing two back in 2019. And as it's always been the case, Roethlisberger delivered the goods, finishing QB14 over the full season while averaging 17.8 FPPG. The Steelers have lost nobody this offseason other than James Conner, but his replacement in rookie Najee Harris can't be more promising.
Harris might not look like Ben's greatest helper, and in fact, he'll take plays from the QB while rushing the rock. Roethlisberger discussed his post-2019 surgery, telling reporters that it hurt his ability to throw deep last season. He is expected to regain some of his mojo in 2021, and he will also have less stress with Harris in town racking up yards on the ground. Roethlisberger projects to finish QB28 with 256+ FP, but to be honest here, I think he will do way more than that. The projections say "fade," but at his ADP, I'd advise you to get him if he fits your strategy.
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