RADIO
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player in your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is at for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with the free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft-season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May leading up to June using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at four tight end risers.
Tight End ADP Risers
Chris Herndon, New York Jets
I could easily go to the archives, pick whatever I wrote about Herndon's last season outlook, and paste it here. After a great rookie-year in 2018 in which he played all 16 games and finished as the 16th-best TE (113.2) things looked great for the Jets sophomore. Then he went and played one game before the season was over for him. Total bummer. But here we are again, hoping for another explosion from Herndon in New York.
I'm not the only Herndon believer. Fantasy GMs are getting more and more hyped on the third-year man each passing day, to the point he currently has the 22nd-highest ADP among TEs while projecting to reach 114.1 PPR in 2020. The upside is definitely there, but as of now, Herndon is nothing more than an incognita (was 2018 for real, or just a mirage?) The Jets' other TE (Ryan Griffin) is getting off the board at a 308 ADP and projects to 65 PPR. Herndon might be the late-round steal of this year's drafts, but if his ADP keeps rising I'm afraid I won't be the one buying him. Griffin could be, in fact, the absolute sleeper here if Herndon happens to get injured again.
Darren Fells, Houston Texans
Earlier this offseason the Texans traded away their no. 1 target-magnet DeAndre Hopkins for RB David Johnson. That move alone freed 150 targets (Hopkins' 2019 number) in Houston's offense, which are more than twice the targets of 2019 no. 2 WR Will Fuller (71). The addition of Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks will fill that whole, sure, but Texans pointed toward an interesting direction when they re-signed Darren Fells a few weeks ago.
Last year, Fells (48) and Jordan Akins (55) both topped 45 targets each whit the former finishing the year as the TE17 on the season (110.1 PPR) clearly over-performing Akins. The Texans might deploy two-tight end sets often in 2020, and Fells is the one poised to become the no. 1 option of the two this season and the lone survivor and active player if they go with just one player at the position.
Fantasy GMs have realized and Fells' ADP has only steadily grown lately. Even with that rise, Fells is still a great value on late rounds if you play in a deep league. If not, just pass on both Fells and Akins, as they will share too many plays as to be impactful fantasy players.
Jace Sternberger, Green Bay Packers
It makes all of the sense in the world to see Sternberger's stock getting up by the day. The Packers did nothing to help Aaron Rodgers during this offseason, and after Jimmy Graham's departure, the position is pretty much bare of options other than Jace. Believe it or not, Sternberger is a second-year player already that was only targeted once last season. He will be used, like it or not, and you know what they say about volume in fantasy football...
PFF projects Sternberger to get 101.4 PPR in 2020, which is a mild but realistic prediction as we have seen nothing from him as a pro yet. That would make him the TE24 on the year, but even the slightest of improvements on that mark could see him finish as a top TE2 or even enter the TE1 realm. Sternberger's ADP is rising for a reason, and it will keep going up. At this point, he's still one of the best values available for cheap so make sure to target him as there aren't many players going under the radar (now) in a better team/playing situation.
Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons
While Hurst might be the ultimate winner of this offseason among tight ends (he has gone from a clogged Ravens offense to an empty TE spot in Atlanta), he might not help fantasy GMs as much as his ADP would make you think. Hurst is getting off the board with an ADP of 83 at the time of this writing. In 12-team leagues, that means GMs are picking him inside the first half of their drafts. That, to me, is a little insane.
Hurts' 2020 projection amounts to 116.1 PPR (47 catches, 512 yards, 3 TDs) good for TE21. His ADP, though, is the 12th-highest among TEs entering 2020. The ROI is horrific, to say the least. Outside of the surefire-players at the position (Kelce, Kittle, Ertz) he's got the lowest ROI among all players at the position, followed by Austin Hooper, Evan Engram, and Mike Gesicki). He will have the position all for him to exploit, but Atlanta already has Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley as WRs and has added Todd Gurley to its backfield. Hurst is one of my 2020 targets, for sure, but I'm not overpaying for him at his current (rising) ADP, and won't be doing so unless it plummets back to Earth.
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