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While we have no active sports right now, the beginning of NFL free agency and other offseason news items are already entertaining us and stirring a lot of buzz. As soon as the tampering period opened, we saw a flurry of significant action that is already fueling fantasy speculation and impacting dynasty and keeper outlooks. Plus, some players are being retained by their current teams, stabilizing their 2020 outlooks.
It appears that teams are acting quickly to either acquire or keep top available players, and there can be some surprises as to who may be on the move. Free agency is thin in some areas, such as wide receiver, and the Texans-Cardinals swap came as a bit of a shock. Seeing David Johnson dealt was expected, but whenever a player the stature of DeAndre Hopkins is traded, it generates a lot of surprised reaction, in the real and fantasy worlds.
There is a lot more to come in terms of player movement and news. I will be providing my insights consistently here on RotoBaller.com. To begin, here are my first reactions to the initial moves of consequence.
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The Big Trade
While draft picks were also part of the exchange, in a stunner, the Texans unloaded superstar WR DeAndre Hopkins and tried to bolster their RB position yet again. Hopkins should not see a significant change in value, as he is going into a situation with a very promising young QB and has performed at high levels with mediocre passers in the past. Giving Kyler Murray a superstar wideout, though, elevates his appeal for 2020 and puts him firmly in the conversation as the third to fifth QB off the board. With a crew of Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella, you should expect a healthy boost in TD passes (20 as a rookie) and he will obviously be a running threat as well. Murray also should now be seriously considered as a third keeper.
The deal obviously leaves the Texans wanting at WR for now, but we will have to see how they attack the position going forward in free agency and the draft. Once again, they have attempted to fill their longtime need at RB, but David Johnson is coming off an injury-plagued 2019 season and health has been an issue for him over the past few seasons. The Texans are rolling the dice that he can recapture his past form, and heavy opportunity is now in front of him. This is the last chance for Johnson to show he can still be a quality all-around producer or Houston will be left wanting at the position again. He should be viewed as a very low-end fantasy RB2 for 2020.
Tight Ends Fly In and Out of Atlanta
As expected, Austin Hooper left Atlanta. He signed a four-year deal with the Browns, a move that should certainly knock down his value a bit. There is an obvious downgrade from Matt Ryan to Baker Mayfield at QB, and now Hooper has to share targets with Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. in the Cleveland passing game. Hooper played at a top TE level for a good chunk of the 2019 season, but now falls a bit further away from the Top 5 at the position. The acquisition, though, does deepen Mayfield’s suite of pass-catchers and gives him a proven big target on key downs.
The Falcons quickly reacted to the loss of Hooper by acquiring Hayden Hurst from Baltimore, where he was buried on the depth chart. At times last season, Hurst flashed his potential (3-73 and a TD in Week Week 14 vs, TEN, 4-53-1 in the playoffs vs. BAL). Now he has Top 10 potential at the TE position for 2020. Ryan certainly can use him frequently as a third option, and Hurst’s abilities were not being properly utilized with the Ravens. The natural skills are there for him to become a fantasy starter this upcoming season, and he has suddenly gained a newfound amount of significant appeal in dynasty leagues.
Dak Gets Tagged
One of the controversial non-fantasy questions of the offseason has been whether Dak Prescott should be among the very highest-paid QBs in the league on a long-term deal. That answer will have to wait, as the Cowboys slapped the franchise tag on him. Prescott has only won one playoff game, but he is an experienced and proven passer with the potential to win much more than he has so far.
If Dallas were to part with him, regaining a quality starting QB of his caliber is far from an easy goal to accomplish in the NFL. Prescott rates just outside the top-five in fantasy at QB and Dallas will continue to work with Amari Cooper while Michael Gallup continues to improve. With bigger money on the line and more to prove, Prescott could play at an elite level in 2020.
Titans Lock Up Tannehill, Franchise Henry
Tennessee moved fast to make sure they kept the key offensive pieces that drove them to an unlikely AFC Championship run. It was important to sew up Ryan Tannehill to a four-year deal, because free agency does not offer much in the way of QB options and there will be competition to trade up for the top rookies.
When a team finds the correct fit at QB they have to tie that player up, as so many franchises struggle to find the right, winning option. Tannehill scored less than 18 points just once between Weeks 7 through 16 and played better than ever with a quality supporting cast and better coaching. He didn’t produce much during the postseason but is at least a top-end QB2 in fantasy for 2020.
Franchising Henry was smart because although he looked like the most unstoppable force in the league in the playoffs and led the league in rushing, he has a track record of inconsistency. With the lure of more money to play for and wanting to prove 2020 was no fluke, it’s reasonable to tab Henry as early as the third RB off the board in 2020.
Bengals Still Seeing Green
Cincinnati franchised A.J. Green and he will likely have to show he can stay healthy and regain his better form before he has any hopes of an extension. Projected new QB Joe Burrow will welcome the sight of an available Green, as the veteran is a big target who can be quite an asset on key downs, If Green can avoid major injuries, he still has starting WR potential.
But we also have to see how much all the health issues have affected his abilities. Green can be drafted as a WR4 if he has no further setbacks; having Green, Tyler Boyd, and John Ross can certainly help Burrow perform well as a rookie.
More News and Moves
The Falcons released Devonta Freeman, so do not be surprised if Atlanta goes with a duo of Ito Smith and Qadree Ollison in 2020. Ollison has some real promise as a TD producer. … Greg Olsen is a wild card for the Seahawks, as he could be a frequent target on important third downs and in the red zone. But if Will Dissly returns healthy and Jacob Hollister stays in the mix, the picture will become murkier. … The Cardinals used the transition tag on Kenyan Drake but will likely match any offer. He should be considered a mid-range fantasy RB2 for next season. … The Chiefs exercised their 2020 option on Damien Williams. He is a playoff hero, but Williams still has not shown he can stay healthy or perform at a high level consistently over a full season, so he could still be part of a timeshare next season.
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