EPL Betting Picks (6/20/2020) - English Premier League

5 years ago by Jamie Steed

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The English Premier League is back and we have our first slate of more than two games, with four scheduled on Saturday. All four games also feature home sides lower in the table than their opponents. If you missed it yesterday, I've introduced a unit based system to track and monitor things and returns. Each bet will be allocated a number of units between 1-10 to show my confidence in the (with 10 being the highest level of confidence). The units have no monetary value and it's entirely your call on whether or not to follow them. Here's how we have started off:

28 units placed
41.73 units returned
13.73 units profit

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll just be picking the bets I think offer the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how, with one pick per game being an odds on "lock". Feel free to parlay any picks too.

Given players haven't been able to do much in the way of team training until early June, there is also some added volatility to the remainder of games this season. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is also something which could have an unknown level of impact so it'll be a wise move to take things even more slow and sensible to start things off. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

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Leicester City @ Watford - 7:30 am ET

Leicester City 3rd - 53 pts
Watford 17th - 27 pts

Leicester's push for a top-4 finish and Champions League qualification stuttered somewhat before the league suspension, with two draws and two losses before they beat lowly Aston Villa in their last league game before the break. Watford's league form has been something of a roller coaster ride, going six games unbeaten followed by a five-game streak without a win. Then came their remarkable 3-0 victory against Liverpool (their only loss of the league season) before losing again before the break.

Leicester is a team who thrives on the counter-attack, while Watford relies on playing an energetic, high-tempo game. That might not be possible for Watford given the lack of fitness after three months off. Leicester's style of play shouldn't be affected by that.

Leicester has had success away to weaker teams all season. In seven away game against teams in the bottom half of the league, they've won six and lost one. In all six victories, Leicester has also managed to score at least two goals. Watford's home form has been erratic; 4 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats. Notable wins against Liverpool and Manchester United mixed in with poor defeats against Brighton and West Ham. The Watford fans can make it a difficult place for visiting teams and without them, I think they might lack that edge to get a result.

Betting Picks:

Team Total Match - Leicester City over 1.5 goals @ 2.090 (Pinnacle) - 10 units LOCK
Money Line Match - Leicester City win @ 2.100 (Pinnacle) - 7 units
Team Props - Correct score; Watford 0 - Leicester City 2 @ 11.000 (Pinnacle) - 1 unit

Arsenal @ Brighton - 10:00 am ET

Arsenal 9th - 40 pts
Brighton 15th - 29 pts

The bad version of Arsenal turned up on Wednesday and was soundly dispatched by Manchester City. Two injuries and a red card mean their thin squad is even more depleted. Arsenal being Arsenal could turn up Saturday and wallop Brighton of course, or they could roll over again and get humbled once more. Away from home, Arsenal is one of the most difficult teams to gauge because of their unreliability. The one thing Arsenal has been consistent in doing away from home is drawing, with 8 of their 14 away league games ending in draws this season.

Brighton, meanwhile, has also found draws commonplace in their home games with 6 of their 14 league home matches resulting in a draw. Brighton does manage to score goals at home consistently and has only failed to find the net 4 times in those 14 games, all of them ending in defeats. One thing they haven't done at home this season is lose while scoring.

Arsenal losing two defenders from the midweek game isn't going to help their prospects this week and while I expect them to score, it's near impossible to back them keeping a clean sheet. The Wednesday game may have helped Arsenal dust off some cobwebs, but Brighton is in urgent need of points to avoid relegation and could see Arsenal as a wounded animal ripe for the taking. Everything about this game suggests plenty of goals.

Betting Picks:

Total Match - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.961 (Pinnacle) - 9 units LOCK
Team Props - Correct score 2-2 @ 14.000 (Pinnacle) - 1 unit

Wolves @ West Ham - 12:30 pm ET

Wolves 7th - 43 pts
West Ham 16th - 27 pts

Continuing the theme of home teams needing points to avoid relegation facing teams challenging for European Competition qualification, West Ham host Wolves in the nation's capital. West Ham seems insistent on underachieving every year and this season has been no different. They're one of the few teams who may benefit from having no fans inside the ground as the atmosphere at home games can get pretty toxic quickly. That's not been helped by their dismal home form, 15 points from 14 games.

Despite losing half of their home league games, in those 7 defeats, they have only lost by more than one goal three times and they were against the top-2 teams in Liverpool (0-2) and Manchester City (0-5) as well as Arsenal (1-3). So they have at least maintained respectability for the most part.

Wolves have only tasted defeat 3 times away from home in the league this season, winning 5 and drawing 6. Similarly to West Ham, they've contested close games with only one of their away victories being by more than a single goal (a 0-2 victory at Manchester City). Wolves are a disciplined and well-organized side who also has individual talent going forward capable of creating chances. Whether that sharpness will be lacking after a 3-month break remains to be seen but this should be a tight affair and I can't see either team having a comfortable lead at any point in the game.

Betting Picks:

Handicap Match - West Ham + 0.5 @ 1.793 (Pinnacle) - 5 units
Team Props - Correct score 1-1 @ 6.750 (Pinnacle) - 2 units

Crystal Palace @ Bournemouth - 2:45 pm ET

Crystal Palace 11th - 39 pts
Bournemouth 18th - 27 pts

We round off Saturday's slate with Bournemouth hosting Crystal Palace. Possibly the least interesting game on the day, it has the potential to be an interesting game, albeit one without many goals.

After a good start to the season, Bournemouth has only managed 3 wins in their last 18 league games, suffering 13 defeats in that period. That form has seen them slip down the table and they now find themselves inside the bottom 3 and staring relegation in the face. That poor form has been in large part to their lack of goals, scoring just 15 goals in those 18 games while conceding 34. The break should have benefited Bournemouth more than most.

Crystal Palace has quietly gone about their business and have almost certainly avoided any possible relegation battle and have an outside chance of challenging for a qualification place for European Competition next season. They've built themselves on keeping things tight defensively and using their pacy forwards to nick a goal at the other end. The 58 total goals in Crystal Palace games is second-lowest in the league (behind Sheffield United with 55) but they've only managed 3 clean sheets away this season in 14 games.

Both teams rank low in the total number of corners this season, with 138 corners each (an average of 4.75 a game). Crystal Palace averages 3.71 corners in away games while Bournemouth averages 4.77 corners per game at home. In a game that should be played at a pretty low tempo (which was likely the case before the 3-month suspension), corners might be in short supply too. Bournemouth is in a much greater need for the points and will have to force the issue more than their opponents so should be on the front foot more which in turn should lead to getting more corners.

Betting Picks:

Corners - Bournemouth Most Corners @ 1.870 (Draftkings) - 9 units LOCK
Team props - Correct score; Bournemouth 2 - Crystal Palace 1 @ 10.050 (Pinnacle) - 1 unit