RADIO
The English Premier League is back and we continue into the second week of the restarted season with a bumper five-game slate on Wednesday. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my "lock" pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Locks - 8 out of 11
- Parlays - 2 out of 4
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Given players haven't been able to do much in the way of team training until early June, there is also some added volatility to the remainder of games this season. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is also something which could have an unknown level of impact so it'll be a wise move to take things even more slow and sensible to start things off. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Sheffield United @ Manchester United- 1:00 pm ET
Sheffield United 7th - 44 pts
Manchester United 5th - 46 pts
Sheffield United has failed to score in their two games since the Premier League's resumption and Sunday's 3-0 defeat against Newcastle was very out of character. It has to be said, they looked in no real danger until John Egan was sent off early in the second half with the score still 0-0 and the opening goal came from a defensive blunder. They also will have one eye on their FA Cup quarter-final clash with Arsenal this Sunday adding a possible distraction.
Manchester United needed a late penalty on Friday to salvage a point at Tottenham, but was the better team for most of that game. They dominated possession and attempts with their goal concession coming from a goalkeeping mistake. I'd expect them to play a slightly more attacking lineup and while Sheffield United will likely keep things tight and make it a tough game, Manchester United's individual quality should see them win.
Manchester United have put themselves in with a chance of qualifying for the Champions League next season so they can't afford to take their foot off of the figurative pedal here.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 0 Sheffield United (Pinnacle odds +550 )
Betting Pick:
- Game Lines - Manchester United to win & under 3.5 total goals @ -106 (Draftkings)
Aston Villa @ Newcastle United - 1:00 pm ET
Aston Villa 19th - 26 pts
Newcastle United 13th - 38 pts
The two teams Sheffield United have faced in the last week now meet with contrasting recent fortunes from those games. Aston Villa's draw was followed by a weekend loss at home to Chelsea having led 1-0 at half time. This is Aston Villa's first away game since the league suspension and they have not fared well in their travels this season. Just two wins, two draws and 11 losses on their travels is why they're sitting in the relegation zone and they have yet to keep an away clean sheet this season.
Newcastle's 3-0 win on Sunday marked the first time they managed to score more than two in a home league game this season. They still needed an opponent to be sent off and a defensive howler before they could get on the scoresheet and with Aston Villa (with their league's worse defense) desperately needing to pick up some points, I can see parts of this game being very stretched and while the quality isn't quite there for plenty of goals, I don't think either team manages to keep a clean sheet.
It could be a case of how desperate either team gets in the later stages if the game is tight as to whether they need to go and chase the game or settle for what they have.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 1 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds - +575)
Betting Pick:
- Game props - Both Teams to Score Yes @ -122 (Pinnacle)
Everton @ Norwich City - 1:00 pm ET
Everton 12th - 38 pts
Norwich City 20th - 21 pts
Everton managed to pick up a point at home to local rivals and champions-elect Liverpool on Sunday. Liverpool wasn't at the races and it was a pretty uninspiring game, but Everton did look well organized and it should hold them in good stead going forward. They actually had some good chances towards the end of the game to pick up the win. Going from playing top of the table to the team bottom and seemingly resigned to relegation should see Everton play a different style of game and 18 of their 37 league goals this season have come away from home. Their lone away clean sheet does mean they will likely need to attack to get three points as they won't be able to sit back and defend, nor should they need to here.
Norwich needed to come out of the break and show some fight to give them any hope of staying up. Instead, they rolled over and was comprehensively beaten by Southampton. The same problems persist for them; giving away soft goals and lacking any organization defensively. Everton under the management of wily Carlos Ancelotti will be able to capitalize on those errors and lack of cohesion. Until I see Norwich show anything different (which I just don't believe they're capable of), I can't back them to pick up any positive results.
Everton is also a team that has better performances in the first half and while their second-half record isn't particularly good, they should be able to get ahead and stay ahead here.
Score prediction: Norwich City 1 - 3 Everton (Pinnacle odds + 1400)
Betting Picks:
- Team Totals First Half - Everton Over 0.5 goals @ -114 (Pinnacle)
Bournemouth @ Wolves - 1:00 pm ET
Bournemouth 18th - 27 pts
Wolves 6th - 46 pts
Similarly to Norwich, Bournemouth opened this final stretch of the season with a disappointing home defeat in a game they would have identified as a good chance for 3-points. Unlike Norwich, they are still in a position to get out of relegation. With a dreadful away record and three more difficult away games after this one, Bournemouth needs to conjure up some magic somewhere to stay up. I don't think that will happen on Wednesday. Eleven defeats in fifteen away league games already for Bournemouth and conceding two or more goals in eight of those matches makes it hard to see how they get anything away to one of the league's most organized and disciplined teams.
For Wolves, that organization and discipline shouldn't be confused with dull and boring. Saturday's victory over West Ham was as comprehensive as a 2-0 win can be and it's the efficiency in how they go about things which makes them so impressive. They have struggled to pick up wins at home with just five wins in 15 home league games, but they have lost just three with seven draws. They've only failed to score at home twice and with Bournemouth having kept just the two clean sheets in away games, Wolves should have no problem finding the goals to win here.
Bournemouth is a side that keeps going and hasn't shown signs of capitulating if they do go behind so I don't think they'll roll over here but Wolves still have too much at both ends of the pitch for them.
Score prediction: Wolves 2 - 0 Bournemouth (Pinnacle odds +600)
Betting Picks:
- Team Total Match - Wolves over 1.5 goals @ -113 (Pinnacle)
Crystal Palace @ Liverpool - 3:15 pm ET
Crystal Palace 9th - 42 pts
Liverpool 1st - 83 pts
Crystal Palace's win at Bournemouth vaulted them into the top half of the table on the back of their tenth league clean sheet this season (their fourth away clean sheet in 15 games). They also managed to score twice away from home for only the sixth time. Crystal Palace games offer up the second-fewest goals in the league with only 60 in their 30 games (behind only Sheffield United) and with a team that looks to defend and keep things tight while nicking a goal on the counter-attack, that shouldn't come as a surprise.
Sunday's game against Everton gave us an idea of what we can expect here from Liverpool. They failed to break down a resolute defense and lacked the fitness they need to play their high tempo game so ultimately settled for a draw. With Manchester City's win on Monday, even a win won't see Liverpool win the league. With that being a foregone conclusion, Liverpool isn't in any urgent need to go an force a win here so we'll probably see a similar performance to that against Everton. Liverpool was without top-scorer Mo Salah on Sunday and we should see some more squad rotation as the games go on for a Liverpool team on the brink of their first Premier League title.
Liverpool will rely on their attacking players to create and score at some point and one goal could well be enough here. Going back to 2017, Liverpool has won the last seven league meetings between the two sides. However, five of those wins have come by a solitary goal and the other two wins were 2-0, so Crystal Palace does make a good go of things against their more illustrious opposition.
One other thing Liverpool have managed to achieve during this record-setting season is having the best disciplinary record. Just 28 yellow cards and one red card, while Crystal Palace has had 50 yellows and a red. When these two teams met earlier in the season, Liverpool picked up the only yellow card of the game. Liverpool's games generally see few bookings as only 37 yellow cards have been awarded against their opponents. In what should be a slow-paced game, that's something I expect to continue here too. Crystal Palace receiving the most yellow cards is a good shout here.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1 - 0 Crystal Palace (Draftkings odds +600)
Betting Picks:
- Asian Handicap - Crystal Palace +1.5 @ 106 (Draftkings)
Parlay Picks
You can parlay any (or all five) of the picks so here they are in order of most to least confidence:
- Wolves over 1.5 goals
- Aston Villa / Newcastle both to score
- Manchester United to win and under 3.5 total goals
- Everton over 0.5 first-half goals
- Crystal Palace +1.5 Asian Handicap
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
More EPL and DFS Analysis
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