RADIO
The English Premier League is back and we continue into the second week of the restarted season with a three-game slate on Thursday. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my "lock" pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Locks - 8 out of 13
- Parlays - 2 out of 5
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Given players haven't been able to do much in the way of team training until early June, there is also some added volatility to the remainder of games this season. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is also something which could have an unknown level of impact so it'll be a wise move to take things even more slow and sensible to start things off. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Watford @ Burnley - 1:00 pm ET
Watford 16th - 28 pts
Burnley 11th - 39 pts
Watford picked up a much-needed point with a last-minute equalizer at home to Leicester City at the weekend. Normally, that point would be considered very good but seeing how insipid Leicester has looked in their two games so far, Watford might feel like they could have picked up all three, especially given how poor their away record in the league has been this season. Just two wins (against bottom-3 sides) and four draws is all they have to show from their 15 away games. Those two wins are the only times they've scored more than one away from home and they've failed to score seven times so goals have been tough to come by.
Burnley took a shellacking at Manchester City on Monday night, which if you read this article, should have come as no surprise as they always seem to get well beaten by Manchester City. Although Burnley doesn't have much to play for other than professional pride, they are generally a well-organized team and nearly all of their home successes come against weaker teams. They've played eight of the current top ten teams at home, with a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 5 defeats. Against the nine teams below them in the league, they've won 6 and lost 1. They can be considered flat-track bullies in that regard.
In their first league meeting, Burnley won 3-0 which is their biggest away win of the season. That game saw a total of four yellow cards which is an area that gets my attention as they're two of the most cautioned teams in the league, ranking 3rd (Watford 61) and 5th (Burnley 59) respectively. For Burnley, 26 of those yellow cards have come at home and Watford has received 32 yellow cards in their away games. I'm expecting this could be a physical encounter. The referee for this game is the always controversial Mike Dean who has issued more yellow cards than any other Premier League ref this season too (104 in 23 games).
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Watford (Pinnacle odds +550 )
Betting Pick:
- Bookings - Total Match Bookings Over 3.5 @ -141 (Pinnacle)
Arsenal @ Southampton - 1:00 pm ET
Arsenal 10th - 40 pts
Southampton 14th - 37 pts
Arsenal most likely just want the season to end. Two games, two losses since the league's resumption and they've already lost four players to injury in the last week plus another to suspension. This will also be their third straight away game and considering they've managed just two league wins away in 15 games, it's hard to back them to win away right now. Despite lacking any real midfield creativity, they still have attackers who can score goals out of nothing. Mikel Arteta is still seeking his first away league win as Arsenal's Head Coach, but their problems lie much deeper than him and with an FA Cup semi-final (again away) this weekend, their focus might not be completely on this game.
Southampton had the perfect start to the Premier League resumption with a resounding 3-0 win at bottom club Norwich. Now they're back at home where they have struggled this season with 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats. They've also managed just 16 goals at home and only have two clean sheets in the 15 games. They were denied victory away to Arsenal earlier this season by a 96th-minute equalizer and have had moderate success against them in recent times. In their last ten league encounters, Southampton has managed 3 wins and 3 draws with all of those wins coming in their home fixtures.
Score prediction: Southampton 2 - 2 Arsenal (Pinnacle odds - +1150)
Betting Pick:
- Game Lines - Total Goals over 2.5 & Both Teams to Score Yes @ -107 (Draftkings)
Manchester City @ Chelsea - 3:15 pm ET
Manchester City 2nd - 63 pts
Chelsea 4th - 51 pts
I'm writing this before the Wednesday games so although it's still unclear if Liverpool will be able to win the Premier League title with anything other than a Manchester City win, that's the most likely outcome from these fixtures. I mentioned this in Monday's article where Manchester City will not want to hand the title to Liverpool without them having to play a game. There's also the factor that their next game is against Liverpool so failing to win here would likely mean giving Liverpool a guard of honor prior to their game and as current champions, that's something no player wants to do.
Manchester City has hit the ground running with two wins, eight goals, none conceded in their first two games. The slower-paced games seem to help them even more and they have so much attacking talent to rotate, even the loss of Sergio Aguero shouldn't completely derail their season. If nothing more than to avoid witnessing Liverpool celebrate winning the title in front of them, they'll treat this game as a cup final.
Chelsea managed to win their first resumption game with a 2-1 win at Aston Villa which was a game they should have won more comfortably. They still managed to concede their customary goal as they've only managed six total league clean sheets this season. They lost the reverse fixture 2-1 earlier in the season and they've only managed one victory in their last seven meetings. Chelsea has been in this position before, drawing 2-2 with Tottenham in 2016 which meant Leicester won the title and I'm sure they'd take pleasure in doing the same here.
This is a really tough game to call. I'd hedge Manchester City winning but the bookies have them much heavier favorites than they really should be. It's easy to think there'll be a tonne of goals but when top teams meet, they generally don't go toe-to-toe so I expect goals, but nothing crazy. Although a win would probably mean more to Chelsea for this season, Manchester City might end up being the more desperate for all three points.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 2 Manchester City (Pinnacle odds + 775)
Betting Picks:
- Team Total Match - Manchester City over 1.5 total goals @ -126 (Pinnacle)
Parlay Picks
- Parlay the first two games for combined odds of +231
You can consider adding in the Manchester City @ Chelsea game into the parlay for odds of +647, but as I mentioned, it's a game that is harder to read than most.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
