RADIO
The midweek slate was a mixed bag. Denied by the woodwork and controversial officiating on Tuesday. On Thursday, two of our picks drew. And Wednesday, I'm still salty about. With 90 minutes on the clock in the first three games, we need a West Ham goal to bag all three picks and two correct scores. Instead, the home teams in the other two games scored leaving us with one pick and no correct scores. We did get a parlay bank on Tuesday which cushioned the blow somewhat. Now, we must move on to the weekend slate where once more, all 20 teams play over three days. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 23 out of 47
- Picks last slate - 4 out of 10
- Parlays - 4 out of 14
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played at least five games each so we have a better understanding of what the 3-month hiatus has had on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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West Ham United @ Norwich City - 7:30 am ET
West Ham United 17th - 31 pts
Norwich City 20th - 21 pts
West Ham United's survival bid suffered another blow with defeat at home to Burnley in midweek. In truth, they should have been a couple of goals up before they conceded and should have been playing 10-men for the last 30 minutes, but for an inexplicable piece of refereeing. The last three games encapsulated West Ham perfectly with a win against Chelsea, blowing the lead twice against Newcastle and settling for a point then losing against Burnley. They continue to be a mixed bag and that win against Chelsea remains their only win since the league resumption.
For Norwich, it's very simple. Anything but a win and they're relegated. Even with a win here and in their three remaining games, it's unlikely they'll stay up but I alluded to this before; teams tend to relax and play much more freely and effectively when they are mathematically relegated. I think Norwich will still put up a fight as they did against Watford on Tuesday (where they found the net for the first time in five games). They still came up short then and I think they will again here.
Score prediction: Norwich City 1 - 3 West Ham United (Pinnacle odds +1500)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line Match - West Ham United to win @ +102 (Pinnacle)
- I also like West Ham United to Win and Both Teams to Score @ +290
Newcastle United @ Watford - 7:30 am ET
Newcastle United 13th - 43 pts
Watford 17th - 31 pts
Newcastle was unsurprisingly spanked at Manchester City on Wednesday and after a bright start to the league resumption, that now leaves them with just one win in their last five games in all competitions. They are one of the few teams floating in mid-table with nothing left to play for except pride and as high of a finish as possible. They showed good spirit to equalize twice against West Ham last weekend and they'll still compete here so there are no worries of them just not turning up.
Watford's survival bid took a massive step forward with a come-from-behind win against Norwich and another win here will give them breathing space between themselves and the bottom-3. Watford generally scores goals at home having scored in nine of their last ten home games and have only lost two in eleven at home. Their next game is against West Ham and that's followed by matches against Arsenal and Manchester City so if they want to ensure Premier League football next season, they need at least four points from these next two games and they'll get something from this game.
Score prediction: Watford 2 - 1 Newcastle United (Pinnacle odds +750)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both Teams to Score Yes @ -102 (Pinnacle)
- I also like Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 total goals @ +155
Burnley @ Liverpool - 10:00 am ET
Liverpool 1st - 92 pts
Burnley 10th - 49 pts
Liverpool needs eight points from their final four games to reach the century mark and won back-to-back games for the first time in eleven games with the 3-1 win at Brighton on Wednesday. Their recent struggles have come on the road and they're just two wins away from a perfect record at home in the league this season. They've averaged 2.7 goals a game at home in the league and Wolves were the only team to have prevented Liverpool scoring twice at home (and still lost 1-0). I don't see anything derailing their record chasing efforts here.
You may remember, prior to Burnley facing Manchester City back in late June, I said this; "They struggle away to the better teams as they have played 7 games away to teams currently above them and have 5 defeats in that span (1 win and 1 draw). In those 5 defeats, they scored just twice and conceded 15". You can add another defeat and five more goals conceded to those totals following that Manchester City game and I don't see them changing the narrative at Liverpool.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 0 Burnley (Pinnacle odds +725)
Betting Pick:
- Match Handicap - Liverpool -1.5 @ -130 (Pinnacle)
Chelsea @ Sheffield United - 12:30 pm ET
Chelsea 3rd - 60 pts
Sheffield United 7th - 51 pts
Until Manchester City's hearing on their suspension from European Competitions is announced on Monday, it's still not clear if top-4 or top-5 will get qualification for next season's Champions League. Chelsea are almost guaranteed at least fifth but they won't want to chance anything yet and with games against Norwich, Liverpool and Wolves left, they might need to take all three points here to secure third or fourth place. Their defensive issues remain with just one clean sheet in five league games since the restart, a total of six goals conceded in those games and just one clean sheet away in the league all season. They'll likely need to score a couple and against the league's third tightest defense, that might be difficult.
Sheffield United's season looked dangerously close to drifting into nothingness but seven points in their last three games have seen them back into contention for qualification to European Competition next season. Given they were favorites to be relegated straight back to the Championship before the season began, that's remarkable in itself. With only one home league defeat in the last nine (against Manchester City) and only one home defeat in which they've scored all season, they'll be a tough nut to crack again here.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 1 Chelsea (Pinnacle odds +675)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both Teams to Score Yes @ +100 (Pinnacle)
Manchester City @ Brighton - 3:00 pm ET
Manchester City 2nd - 69pts
Brighton 15th - 36 pts
We alluded to Manchester City's away woes prior to their defeat at Southampton. They also have the most congested schedule of all teams with an FA Cup semi-final next weekend and the Champions League resumption in early August, they've been rotating their squad to limited success. Kevin de Bruyne didn't start the game at Southampton but they still created more than enough chances to win the game and I think this game will have a similar pattern.
Despite conceding fewer goals than Southampton this season, Brighton isn't as well organized and that was on show against Liverpool as they went 2-nil down inside eight minutes. Their 36 points might be enough already to keep them up this season but they'll still most likely look to play deep, give up a load of possession and frustrate Manchester City. Maybe even nick a goal, exactly like Southampton. I've been burned by saying this already a couple of weeks ago, but I don't think lightning strikes twice and they'll probably have to score to even have a hope of getting something from this game.
The game lines are tight and I'm not confident enough in Manchester City to go for a big win but the corners market provides intrigue. Manchester City's last six away league games has seen them average over 9.5 corners a game and get seven or more in all but one of those six games.
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 3 Manchester City (Pinnacle odds +1000)
Betting Pick:
- Corners - Manchester City over 6.5 corners @ -136 (Draftkings)
- I also like Manchester City over 6.5 corners and over 1.5 cards in a single game parlay @ +310
Parlay
- All five picks offer combined odds of +2456 (feel free to go for just three of the picks to reduce risk)
- West Ham, Watford, Liverpool and Manchester City all to win @ +506
- The three "I also like" picks with higher odds combine for +4077
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
