RADIO
With one game left of the weekend slate, we've had a decent enough few days. Six of the nine picks from the slate have hit so far plus a +750 correct score pick. We were denied a +1956 parlay from a dreadful VAR call for Crystal Palace and on Saturday, Liverpool and Chelsea combined for 38 shots but just one goal otherwise we could have been looking at a clean sweep and a monstrous slate. Just three more Matchweeks remain now with European qualification and relegation spots still to play for. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 29 out of 56
- Picks last slate - 6 out of 9 (one game remaining)
- Parlays - 4 out of 16
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played at least six games each so we have a better understanding of what the 3-month hiatus has had on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Tuesday, July 14th, 2020
Norwich City @ Chelsea - 3:15 pm ET
Norwich 20th - 21 pts
Chelsea 3rd - 60 pts
Norwich's relegation was finally sealed at the weekend with another disturbing loss, this time a 4-0 reverse against West Ham. I've long been saying that once they are officially relegated, they should be able to play with more freedom and we see it often when a team's relegation is confirmed, they look a much better side than they have all season. The difficulty for Norwich is they don't have enough quality players, they lack goals and are disorganized defensively. Against lesser opposition, they might have a chance of getting their first point since the league restart but this isn't the game for them.
Chelsea was soundly beaten at the weekend with a comprehensive 3-0 defeat at Sheffield United. Manager Frank Lampard was fuming at the performance and we should see a reaction. The announcement from UEFA on Monday morning that they've caved in an allowed Manchester City back into European Competition means they need to secure a top-4 finish to get into the Champions League and even with an FA Cup semi-final this coming weekend, they will have to target this game and will likely prioritize the league as much as the cup, if not more. Saturday's loss was the first time since the restart that Chelsea failed to score two in a league game, let alone one but it now means they've conceded ten in six games while scoring 12.
There have been over 2.5 goals in each of Chelsea's last nine league games aided by the fact they have conceded more goals than any other team in the top half of the table. Norwich has the worst defensive record in the league and now can play with abandon so there should be goals.
Score prediction: Chelsea 4 - 1 Norwich City (Pinnacle/Draftkings odds +1200)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both to Score/Winner Yes & Chelsea @ +180 (Pinnacle)
Wednesday, July 15th, 2020
Wolves @ Burnley - 1:00 pm ET
Wolves 6th - 55 pts
Burnley 10th - 50 pts
Wolves got back to winning ways with a comprehensive 3-0 victory against Everton. They had been struggling for goals prior to that win with just four in their previous five games and back-to-back defeats in which they failed to score. If you read the Saturday previews, you will have seen why I picked Wolves to win as at home, they struggle against top teams but have an excellent record against the rest of the league. Away from home, that's not the case. Wolves have played 17 away league games this season and despite winning seven, drawing six and losing just four, the only time a game was decided by more than one goal was their 2-0 win at Manchester City back on Matchweek 8.
After being thumped at Manchester City to start the league resumption, Burnley has put themselves back into contention for Europa League qualification with three wins and two draws. If you look at their scores, it's easy to see how they play. The three wins have all been by a 1-0 scoreline and the two draws were 1-1. That defeat at Manchester City is their only loss in 13 league games too and they haven't lost at home since New Year's Day.
This will be a tight game with Wolves likely to be stifled for the space they need to be at their most effective. It could go either way and a 1-0 or 2-1 win for either team wouldn't come as a surprise.
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Wolves (Pinnacle odds +575)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Draw no Bet Burnley @ +240 (Pinnacle)
Bournemouth @ Manchester City - 1:00 pm ET
Bournemouth 18th - 31 pts
Manchester City 2nd - 72 pts
Bournemouth gave themselves a chance of survival with an emphatic 4-1 win against Leicester on Sunday. But if you watched the game, you will see how the scoreline massively flattered them. Bournemouth trailed 1-0 at half-time and hadn't managed to have a shot on target. With less than 30 minutes to go, an inexplicable mistake allowed them to score from the penalty spot. Then two minutes later they managed to score again from sloppy play and in the aftermath, Leicester had a player sent-off for kicking out. The rest of the game was a breeze. If that's the way they need things to go to win games, Bournemouth is still in big trouble. Of course, that might be the confidence boost they need to kick on but if it is, they likely wouldn't have picked this as a follow-up game.
Manchester City recorded their second straight 5-0 win, their third such scoreline in six league games and they have now scored 23 goals in their seven league games since the restart. Their last five league games at home have seen them win five games with an aggregate score of 19-0. Their schedule is congested with an FA Cup semi-final on Saturday and with nothing in the league to play for, they could rest key players like Kevin de Bruyne with an eye on the Champions League resumption in August too. They have arguably the strongest squad depth in the league however so should still have enough to win here.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 1 Bournemouth (Pinnacle odds +1000)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - To Win Both Halves Manchester City @ -103 (Draftkings)
Tottenham @ Newcastle United - 1:00 pm ET
Tottenham 8th - 52 pts
Newcastle United 13th - 43 pts
Tottenham picked up the win against rivals Arsenal on Sunday but didn't look particularly impressive doing it. In typical Jose Mourinho style, they absorbed pressure and relied on Arsenal defenses mistakes to score. While that will work in some games, at some point they will need to force the issue in matches and this is one such game. Arsenal did look tired as the game ended (eight games in 26 days will do that to you) and in games where Tottenham has had to play on the front foot since the restart, they've had only limited success (drawing at Bournemouth and losing 3-1 at Sheffield United).
Newcastle lost at Watford via two penalties on Saturday and now has two wins, two draws and two defeats in the league since the restart. Those two defeats have been in their last two games. They are unbeaten at home in their last six home league games and will look to finish the season strong with an 11th place finish the highest they can likely end the season with. Newcastle did nick a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture and I could see this play out the same way but Newcastle hasn't kept a clean sheet in five league games now and I don't foresee one here.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 2 Tottenham (Pinnacle odds +775)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Over 1.5 goals and over 2.5 cards @ -137 (Draftkings)
Liverpool @ Arsenal - 3:15 pm ET
Liverpool 1st - 93pts
Arsenal 9th - 50 pts
Liverpool spluttered again at the weekend with a 1-1 draw at home to Burnley, which was the first home league game they failed to win all season. It's hard to say their form is poor given they can still set the Premier League record for most points with three wins but they've only won three of their last six games since the resumption, although they only have one defeat during that time. Saturday did see Liverpool mix up their lineup a bit more than they had since the restart but they will still have a strong team as they bid for 100 points and a possible Premier League record.
Arsenal suffered another setback on Sunday and once again, it was very much self-inflicted. While they have tidied up defensively and reduced individual errors, mistakes are still very much in their DNA and they'll need to have an almost perfect performance to win this one. They had a similar such performance only 10 days ago when beating Wolves and Liverpool hasn't been close to their best recently so they do have a chance and I think they will want to bounce back after Sunday's disappointment, it's just whether they are able to put together a strong enough defensive performance while still carrying an attacking threat. I think they can do either of those, but not both.
Arsenal will look to play a high tempo pressing game if they are to get anything out of the game and have had more yellow cards than any other team this season, while Liverpool has had the fewest.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 2 Liverpool (Pinnacle odds +1250)
Betting Pick:
- Bookings - Handicap Match Bookings Arsenal -0.5 @ +132 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- All four of Wednesday games' picks @ +2589
- All five picks @ +7530
- Manchester City & Chelsea both to win/over 2.5 goals @ -106 (you can add in Burnley v Wolves draw @ +536)
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
More EPL and DFS Analysis
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