RADIO
Following a good weekend, the weekday slate has been a slight struggle. Wednesday saw us one goal away in three games from all correct scores and all picks. We did bag one +575 correct score but Thursday brought us back down to Earth. Not helped by Southampton hitting the woodwork twice and having a potential winning goal cleared off the line twice too. We now head into an oddly structured and penultimate Matchweek due to the FA Cup Semi-Finals being played at the weekend too. These games are split over five days before next Sunday's finale. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 34 out of 66
- Picks last slate - 4 out of 9 (one void)
- Parlays - 4 out of 18
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
With just two league games left for each team, some sides are looking like they're already on the beach so it's worth keeping in mind team's league positions. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, July 18th, 2020
Burnley @ Norwich City - 12:30 pm ET
Burnley 10th - 51 pts
Norwich City 20th - 21 pts
Burnley extended their unbeaten run to six games after a 1-1 draw against Sheffield United on Wednesday, courtesy of an injury-time penalty. In their six-game unbeaten run, they have three wins (all with a 1-0 scoreline) and three draws (all 1-1). That sums up Burnley really well; tight, well-organized, good defensively but lack many goals. They've now gone nine league games without scoring more than one in a game but if that run was ever going to end, it'd be here.
For Norwich, I've long said that once their relegation is confirmed, we'd see improved performances. And while they did lose to Chelsea on Tuesday, it was only 1-0 when everyone expected a drubbing. They have nothing to lose and will want to stop this run of nine straight defeats in all competitions and failing to get a point since the restart. I still can't make a case for them winning and with Burnley needing a win to keep their slim hopes of European qualification alive, I think Norwich will have to wait another week to stop the rot.
Score prediction: Norwich City 0 - 2 Burnley (Pinnacle odds +1000)
Betting Pick:
- Match Money Line - Burnley to win @ +121 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, July 19th, 2020
Southampton @ Bournemouth - 9:00 am ET
Southampton 12th - 46 pts
Bournemouth 18th - 31 pts
Southampton extended their unbeaten run to five games with a 1-1 draw against Brighton on Thursday. It was a game in which they changed half their lineup from the previous three games and it showed in the first half, trailing one-nil. The second half, Southampton hit the woodwork twice, had two efforts cleared off the line and could have scored a lot more than the one they did manage. They're finishing the season strongly and this is a derby game in which their fans (despite being absent) would like nothing more than picking up the three points and consigning Bournemouth to almost certain relegation.
For Bournemouth, they need four points from their last two games to stand any chance of staying up. After an atrocious resumption to the league, they picked up a point against Tottenham before beating Leicester City 4-1 after their opponents had a complete second-half meltdown. They showed some fighting spirit in their 2-1 loss at Manchester City on Tuesday and unlike other relegation candidates, have goals in them (having scored eight in their last five games). While a point is enough to keep them up, for now, survival will still be out of their hands and they'll see it as a winnable game. But they've not won and kept a clean sheet in their last 20 league games. I don't see them being effective enough at both ends to pick up a win here and can see them potentially getting caught out if they chase for a winner.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 1 Southampton (Pinnacle odds +650)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Southampton Draw no Bet @ +108 (Pinnacle)
Leicester City @ Tottenham - 11:00 am ET
Leicester City 4th - 62 pts
Tottenham 7th - 55 pts
Leicester had their best performance since the league restarted on Wednesday, beating Sheffield United comfortably. They have a huge game next Sunday against Manchester United with fourth place and Champions League qualification at stake. A win here and they'll likely need just a draw next week to seal fourth. But their grip on that spot has been weakening and prior to Wednesday's win, they had to ride their luck significantly before their Bournemouth disaster show.
For Tottenham, they've been picking up points without dazzling in a very Jose Mourinho fashion. They're in pole position for seventh place and a spot in next season's Europa League and a win here would ensure that stays within their control. They will need to improve if Leicester put in a similar performance to their last game but they have a style which should match up well against Leicester, denying them space and the ability to counter-attack. Leicester still doesn't look convincing in defense and Tottenham has the forwards to take advantage. With Leicester knowing that Champions League qualification comes down to next week no matter what the result is here, they might be stuck in limbo a bit and could be punished for it.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 1 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +850)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both to Score/Total Goals; Over 2.5 & Yes@ +120 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- All three games @ +1007
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
