RADIO
The penultimate Matchweek continues into Monday with a further three games, before four games are split over Tuesday and Wednesday to end it. The FA Cup semi-finals have caused the spacing of these games before Sunday's finale where all 20 teams will play at the same time, as is the tradition. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we stand so far:
- Picks total - 34 out of 66
- Picks last slate - 4 out of 9 (one void)
- Parlays - 4 out of 18
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
With just two league games left for each team, some sides are looking like they're already on the beach so it's worth keeping in mind team's league positions. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Newcastle United @ Brighton - 1:00 pm ET
Newcastle United 13th - 43 pts
Brighton 16th - 37 pts
Newcastle has lost three straight games and is seeing their season peter out. They already did enough at the beginning of the league resumption to keep themselves out of relegation troubles and can't finish in the top-10 so have nothing on the line in this game. Other than the two games against Manchester City (one league game and one cup game), they have scored in every match since the restart but they haven't kept a clean sheet since the first game back against 10-men (3-0 win against Sheffield United).
Brighton all but guaranteed survival with a 1-1 draw against Southampton on Thursday. Their goal difference is far superior to those below them so it'd take a monumental failure for them to be relegated now. That was evident in their second-half performance against Southampton in which they desperately tried to cling on to a point rather than go for a winner and you could see after the game, they knew that secured Premier League football for next season. Since the league restarted Brighton has played seven games, four of which were against top-5 teams so haven't had an easy run of things by any means and picked up points when they really needed to.
With neither side having much to play for, these games tend to turn into drab affairs although there are some exceptions. While I don't think this will be a classic by any means, neither team is adept at keeping clean sheets and both sides have had recent success in scoring goals. Brighton may have exerted more in their last game and if someone does pick up all three points, I'd hedge Newcastle being the likelier side to do so.
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Newcastle United (Pinnacle odds +600)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both Teams to Score Yes @ -106 (Pinnacle)
Everton @ Sheffield United - 1:00 pm ET
Everton 11th - 46 pts
Sheffield United 7th - 54 pts
I expected Everton to be better in their last couple of games, despite having nothing to play for. Their Head Coach Carlo Ancelotti is too experienced to let his players stop competing but this very much has the look of a side happy to see out the rest of this disappointing season before looking to start afresh next season. It's now four games without a win for Everton but they do still boast an unbeaten record at home since Ancelotti took over the reins in late 2020. Their away form hasn't been so good and all their defeats since the change in management have been away at sides in the top half of the table.
Sheffield United regained their form after a sluggish start to the league's resumption and after picking up ten points in their previous four games, they were brought back down to Earth with a 2-0 defeat at Leicester City last time out. Their home record has been good all season and only Manchester City has left Sheffield with three points in their last ten games. They're still in the hunt for Europa League qualification but will likely need to win both remaining games and that still might not be enough. Given the two sides' recent form and respective performances, Sheffield United should emerge victorious here.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 2 - 0 Everton (Pinnacle odds +950)
Betting Pick:
- Match Money Line - Sheffield United to win @ +115 (Pinnacle & Draftkings)
Crystal Palace @ Wolves - 3:15 pm ET
Crystal Palace 14th - 42 pts
Wolves 6th - 56 pts
Crystal Palace lost their sixth straight game on Thursday, dropping to Manchester United 2-0. It was also the fifth time during that run they failed to score. They now find themselves as the league's second-lowest scorers (30 goals) ahead of only already relegated Norwich City. They have had difficult games during this run (four against top-5 sides) but Wolves are sixth and looking to seal that pace for Europa League qualification next season. I will say, Crystal Palace has had some unfortunate (and frankly incorrect) decisions go against them recently but they'll need a lot more than just a change in luck to get anything from this game.
Wolves need to win their last two games to guarantee sixth place and a spot in European competition next season. They are still in this season's Europa League with their second league tie against Olympiacos on August 06th. They'll have long enough to prepare for that and rest up after this week's season finale to not need much rotation with their starting lineup and they have enough depth to still make a change or two without harming their chances here. Wolves have not lost at home to a team in the bottom half this season and that record should remain here.
Score prediction: Wolves 3 - 0 Crystal Palace (Pinnacle odds +1000)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Wolves to win and under 3.5 total goals @ -113 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- All three games @ +788
Also, consider Sheffield United & Wolves to win and Brighton/Newcastle draw @ +1070
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
More EPL and DFS Analysis
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