RADIO
The full EPL weekend slate continues through this holiday weekend with four games Sunday and one Monday in something resembling a more recent traditional schedule. The week ahead also sees all twenty teams play across three days so there's still plenty of action to get our teeth into. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 13 out of 27
- Picks Thursday - 1 out of 2
- Parlays - 2 out of 9
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played two or three games each so we have a better understanding of what a 3-month hiatus has on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it'll be a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Sheffield United @ Burnley - 7:00 am ET (Sunday 7/5/20)
Sheffield United 7th - 47 pts
Burnley 10th - 45 pts
The theme for this weekend is 'middle of the table sides' looking to push on for European competition qualifications. Equally, those sides could slide into mid-table obscurity with a couple of defeats. That's no more true than of this game.
Sheffield United got back to winning ways with a comprehensive win against Tottenham, who seemed keen to avoid defending throughout the game. Sheffield United haven't looked too bad since the restart despite results and will now look to kick on to make sure their surprise season doesn't fizzle out.
Burnley followed their 5-0 trouncing at Manchester City with back-to-back 1-0 victories and that's been pretty much their MO all season. Sheffield United did take all three points when these sides met earlier in the season (3-0 victory) but 17 of Burnley's games have been drawn or won by an odd goal and that is the most likely outcome here.
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Sheffield United (Pinnacle odds +525)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line Match - Full-time result Draw @ +195 (Pinnacle)
There's so little value to be had on the over/under lines unless it ends 0-0 or is a crazy game so we'll take a draw at higher odds.
West Ham United @ Newcastle United - 9:15 am ET (Sunday 7/5/20)
West Ham United 16th - 30 pts
Newcastle United 13th - 42 pts
West Ham got a much-needed win with a shock 3-2 victory against Chelsea in the week. Prior to that, they looked insipid with two 2-0 losses. What has been common with West Ham's three games is a lack of testing the opponent's keeper as they only had two shots on target in their two defeats and three on target against Chelsea. Chelsea's weakness at defending set-pieces was evident but that shouldn't be the case for Newcastle.
Newcastle has been a revelation since the restart. Having only managed 25 goals in 29 games, they've scored eight in three games and have guaranteed Premier League safety with the seven points they've picked up in those three games. In Allain Saint-Maximin, Newcastle has an exciting threat that is starting to create goals and will likely cause West Ham trouble all game.
I don't think Newcastle runs away with this one but West Ham will continue to play a defensive game and look get forward through long balls which Michail Antonio will chase. They had success against Chelsea but that's not a method which will work too often and Newcastle's newfound lust for goals should see them win.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 1 West Ham (Pinnacle odds +950)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Draw No Bet Newcastle @ -102 (Pinnacle)
Aston Villa @ Liverpool - 11:30 am ET (Sunday 7/5/20)
Aston Villa 18h - 27 pts
Liverpool 1st - 86 pts
Aston Villa has managed just two points in four games since the league resumption and is on the brink of an immediate return to the Championship. They've only managed two goals in those four games too and if you have seen their matches, it's difficult to see where their goals will come from. Outside a set-piece or moment of magic from captain Jack Grealish, they look completely devoid of ideas.
Liverpool secured the league title and then got thumped 4-0 at Manchester City. That was their fifth straight away game in all competitions in which they failed to score (despite hitting the post at 0-0 at Manchester City). At home, they're a different team and have only failed to score at least two at home in the league one time. They won't want to finish this season with a whimper and will no doubt aim to fire off a message to the rest of the league that they're champions for a reason.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 0 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +800)
Betting Pick:
- Handicap Match - Liverpool -1.5 @ -113 (Pinnacle)
Manchester City @ Southampton - 2:00 pm ET (Sunday 7/5/20)
Manchester City 2nd - 66 pts
Southampton 14th - 40 pts
Having relinquished their league title, Manchester City sent a marker out for next season with a resounding 4-0 win at home to Liverpool. As much as Liverpool are very different in home and away games, Manchester City is even more Jekyll and Hyde. They've won all three home games since the restart, scoring 12 and conceding none. Their one away game was a 2-1 defeat at Chelsea. They've lost 6 of 16 away league games and 3 of 4 either side of the league suspension.
Southampton is the complete opposite and has a dreadful home record (14 points in 16 games) with their away form keeping them away from relegation (26 points in 16 games). That's been emphasized since the restart as they've won both away games and lost their home game. Southampton is too far adrift from the European qualification spots but also too far from the relegation zone to need to worry so have little to play for. Even a Manchester City team likely to make changes to their starting lineup has too much depth to not cause problems to any team and should pick up all three points here.
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 3 Manchester City (Pinnacle odds +950 )
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Both to Score/Winner; Yes & Machester City @ +185 (Pinnacle)
Everton @ Tottenham - 3:00 pm ET (Monday 7/6/20)
Everton 11th - 44 pts
Tottenham 9th - 45 pts
Everton appears to be a much more organized side under the tutelage of Carlo Ancelotti and two wins and a draw in their three games since the restart has vaulted them back into contention for the European qualification spots. If we go back to December, Everton's last 19 league games have seen them lose five games, but all five were away from home and came against the top-4 teams as well as Arsenal.
Tottenham was soundly beaten at Sheffield United and something seems to be afoot. The mainstay center-back partnership of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld hasn't featured since the restart with both players having found themselves on the bench in their last three games. Jose Mourinho isn't averse to upsetting players but their last performance was so disjointed, it's hard to believe everything is hunky-dory. They still have goals in them and are favorites for this game but Everton might just prove to be too tough a nut to crack.
Tottenham has had more corners than their opponents in all three games since the restart while Everton have had fewer in all three of their games so in what should be a tight game, that's where we may find our value.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1 - 1 Everton (Pinnacle odds +600)
Betting Pick:
- Corners - Handicap Match Corners Tottenham -0.5 @ -110 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
With five games on the slate, you can combine as many games as you like, mix them up or just go with 2-game combos. It's all about how comfortable you are with the games and how much you are willing and able to stake. With two of the picks offering plus odds, it's easier to parlay the three shorter odds picks and then maybe go a small stake on the five.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
