RADIO
With one game left on Monday, the weekend slate treated us well. Four correct picks from six on Saturday (including a +300 winner) and only denied a clean swipe by the woodwork and a sitter missed. Sunday saw us bag two from three (with a void bet and a +525 correct score pick) and miss out on the sweep with Manchester inexplicably unable to score despite 26 shots and 74% possession. The week ahead sees all twenty teams play across three days again so there's plenty more action to get our teeth into. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 19 out of 36
- Picks last slate - 6 out of 9 (one game remaining)
- Parlays - 3 out of 11
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played three or four games each so we have a better understanding of what the 3-month hiatus has had on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Norwich City @ Watford - 1:00 pm ET
Norwich City 20th - 21 pts
Watford 17th - 28 pts
The first game of the midweek slate offers Watford a great chance to put some daylight between themselves and the relegation zone. They lost 3-0 at Chelsea on Saturday and in truth, appeared to be playing as if they knew they wouldn't get anything from the game with an eye on this one. The loss did make it three defeats on the bounce and they only have a solitary point to show for things since the restart with only two goals scored. In fact, they have won only one in eleven league games, a remarkable 3-0 victory against Liverpool being the lone win.
Norwich lost for the fourth straight time in the league since the restart and have failed to score in each of the four league games. They've now only scored four times in their last 13 league games and you need to go back to December since they scored twice in a league game. You need to go back even farther for their last and only away league win this season (at Everton on November 23rd). They looked completely despondent at full-time against Brighton on Saturday as if they finally realized their stay in the Premier League is coming to an end after one season.
Watford won the reverse fixture 2-0 and their home form hasn't been too bad with just two defeats in their last nine home league games. Both defeats saw them concede three goals and I don't see Norwich scoring three or even two. Outside of those defeats, Watford has conceded two in those nine games and kept five clean sheets. That'll be their best way to winning here. I don't like backing a team to fail to score for a sixth straight league game especially after they've hit the woodwork in their last two games and wouldn't be surprised if it ended 2-1 instead, but I think Watford win in a pretty nervy and dull game
Score prediction: Watford 1 - 0 Norwich (Pinnacle odds +600)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Watford to win and total under 3.5 match goals @ +128 (Draftkings)
Chelsea @ Crystal Palace - 1:00 pm ET
Chelsea 4th - 57 pts
Crystal Palace 14th - 42 pts
Chelsea cruised through their 3-0 win against Watford to erase the memories of their shock loss at West Ham. They were never really tested at the weekend but should face a tougher examination at Crystal Palace. As I alluded to on the weekend write-up, Chelsea has been winning games mainly due to the form of Pulisic and Willian (who scored again on Saturday). Chelsea's away form isn't what they need it to be if they are to keep up their top-4 hopes as they've won just once in their last six away league games, with three draws and two losses. Only one of those games came against a top-half side so they can't say it's been a difficult run of away games either.
For Crystal Palace, it looks like their season will just peter out into obscurity but they'll still be competitive and I expect them to really test Chelsea here. They've lost their last three games but if we look at their league form in 2020, they appear to like going on mini-streaks. Since New Year's Day, they drew four, then lost three, then won four, then lost three. I'm not expecting them to go on a four-game win streak but I do fancy them to get something out of this game.
Chelsea still doesn't seem capable of dealing with corners effectively and defensively looks vulnerable very game as Crystal Palace will seek to exploit those deficiencies. And while Crystal Palace conceded two against each of the other top-4 teams at home, I think they frustrate Chelsea enough to get a point.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Chelsea (Pinnacle odds +725)
Betting Pick:
- Game Lines or Game Props - Crystal Palace to win or draw @ +180 (Pinnacle & Draftkings)
You can also consider taking Crystal Palace Draw No Bet at +500, which pays out at +500 with a Crystal Palace win or returns your stake with a draw.
Leicester City @ Arsenal - 3:15 pm ET
Arsenal 7th - 49 pts
Leicester City 3rd - 58 pts
Despite sitting in 7th place and looking like a complete shambles off the back of two defeats to start the league resumption, Arsenal now has eyes on a top-5 finish and potential Champions League spot. I still think that's too big of an ask but considering a top-10 finish looked unlikely a fortnight ago, it shows how much can change within a few games. On the back of four straight wins, Arsenal looks like a new side and first-year Head Coach Mikel Arteta seems like he's getting the team on the right track. In fact, in 2020 only Liverpool has won more points than Arsenal, only Manchester United has conceded fewer league goals and only the top-2 has scored more goals. If the Premier League started on January 01st, Arsenal would be 3rd and nine points better off than Leicester City.
Leicester won their first game since the restart on Saturday with a 3-0 victory, although it wasn't as convincing as the scoreline suggests. The game was 0-0 at half-time and only a goalkeeping blunder put Leicester in front before a defensive blunder followed later for Leicester to add a second and seal the game. While the win would have helped confidence and Arsenal aren't exactly blunder-free themselves, I'm not sure Leicester will be able to win their first away league game since January 01st at Arsenal.
Since Leicester's return to the Premier League, they've failed to pick up a point at Arsenal in five games and while they are normally close games (four of the five losses were by one goal), Arsenal looks more than capable of winning again here and making it six from six.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 1 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +1750)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line Match - Arsenal to win @ +132 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
You can parlay all three picks or play it a bit safer with the following;
- Watford to win (-150)
- Crystal Palace handicap +1.5 (-162)
- Arsenal draw no bet (-150)
This will give combined odds of +449.
The three picks are all plus odds so can be split into doubles and the 3-game parlay from each of the picks would give combined odds of +1481 if you're feeling lucky.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
