EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 14: English Premier League

The midweek slate was brutal with zero correct picks. It goes to show how unpredictable the EPL is and how fine the margins are we're working with. Newcastle was 15 minutes away from bagging us the pick, before capitulating to a 5-2 defeat. Brighton and Fulham did draw, sadly for us it was a boring 0-0. And Aston Villa hit the woodwork twice, if those efforts went in, we'd have had the pick and correct score. That's the way it goes and as we enter the festive period, games come thick and fast so no time to lick our wounds.

• Picks total - 12 out of 30
• Parlays - 1 out of 10
• Correct scores - 4 out of 30

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

This time of year has games coming thick and fast with teams playing two or three games a week, which offers up plenty of unexpected results and some interesting scorelines. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

Saturday, December 19th, 2020

Fulham @ Newcastle United - 3:00 pm ET

Fulham's point against Brighton on Wednesday wasn't enough to lift them out of the relegation zone but does mean they have avoided defeat in back-to-back games for the first time this season, so gives them something to build from. It's also just one defeat in their last four games which is even more impressive given they've faced three teams who finished in the top-5 last season. They did begin to look tired in midweek and this will be a third game in seven days which might prove to be a real struggle for them.

For Newcastle, this game represents a chance to get back into winning ways after their midweek loss to Leeds ended a chance to get three straight wins. As mentioned, it was only a late collapse that saw them lose and they actually led the game. They showed they have enough potency up front to score goals, but equally, struggle defensively with just two clean sheets on the season and none at home. Having the weekend off a fortnight ago might also keep them a bit fresher than their opponents which could prove to be the difference in the latter stages of the game.

Newcastle's lack of home clean sheets will encourage Fulham enough and will more than likely provide them with opportunities to score. It's just a case of whether or not they take any of them. For Newcastle, this is the sort of game they have to win to keep distance between themselves and the relegation zone. I think Newcastle win, but I think Fulham score in the process.

Fulham 18th - 9 pts
Newcastle United 14th - 17 pts

Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 1 Fulham (Draftkings odds +850)

Betting Pick:

• Money Line - Newcastle United to win @ +164 (Pinnacle)

Sunday, December 20th, 2020

Leicester City @ Tottenham - 9:15 am ET

Leicester lost 2-0 at home to Everton in midweek, their fifth defeat in 13 games this season. Incredibly, they're still in the coveted top-4 league places as they have yet to draw a game. They have had more success on the road with five wins from six away games, largely in part to their counter-attacking style which suits them more when the home team has to press forward more.

The problem with this tactic is despite being the home team, Tottenham under Jose Mourinho won't press forward and play on the front foot. We've seen in their last few games, how Tottenham play regardless of the opposition; sitting deep, defending in numbers and then hitting teams on the break. Tottenham enter this game with just one win in four league games and their negative tactics saw them come unstuck against Crystal Palace last weekend but I don't think they get caught out again here.

This is likely a game of "who blinks first, loses". Tottenham has the greater firepower of the two sides and if they go ahead, I think Leicester will be in for a long day and haven't yet shown they are comfortable breaking down teams who play like Tottenham do.

Leicester City 4th - 24 pts
Tottenham 2nd - 25 pts

Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 0 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +1000)

Betting Pick:

• Money Line - Tottenham to win @ +112 (Pinnacle)

Aston Villa @ West Brom - 2:15 pm ET

Aston Villa was frustrated by an insipid Burnley team in midweek and have now just three goals in their last four games. Last weekend saw Aston Villa score a last-minute penalty to beat local rivals Wolves in a fiery game that saw 11 bookings and both teams reduced to ten men. In another local derby this weekend, we could see a similar type of game but maybe fewer yellow cards.

West Brom parted ways with manager Slaven Bilic after a creditable 1-1 draw away at Manchester City. His replacement is someone synonymous with avoiding relegation and a style of football that is far from pleasing to watch; Sam Allardyce. If West Brom stays up this season, they won't care about the style of football but for a team whose only clean sheets have come against the only two teams who have scored fewer goals than themselves, survival will be dependant on picking up points at home, especially in games like this.

I'm expecting the full "Sam Allardyce" experience this weekend and even though he's only had a couple of training sessions with the team, I'm sure West Brom will play in the style Allardyce is renowned for which makes betting on the goal-line something of interest along with the potential feisty nature of this game.

Aston Villa 11th - 19 pts
West Brom 19th - 7 pts

Score prediction: West Brom 0 - 0 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +1350)

A reminder: Never bet on 0-0 as a correct score, always bet on No Goalscorer. It's the same odds and means if the only goal of the game is an own goal, you still win.

Betting Pick:

•    Single-game parlay - Over 1.5 bookings and under 3.5 total goals @ +150 (Draftkings)

Parlay

• All three picks @ +1399. If you can't get the bookings selection on the final game in the parlay, you can replace the pick with under 2.5 total goals for odds of +1192

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! This is the final matchweek before Christmas so I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and manage to spend some time with loved ones! From December 26th onwards, there are at least two EPL games on 10 of 11 days so keep checking back for the picks.

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