EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 18: English Premier League

The opening weekend of 2021 saw a mixed bag for us with one winner, one loser and one postponement. Everton looked pretty toothless despite being the better side against West Ham before succumbing to a late sucker punch to lose. Brighton and Wolves then played out an entertaining 3-3 draw, a game we predicted to be a score draw, just not a six-goal thriller. Fulham and Burnley saw their game postponed due to a Covid outbreak within the Fulham squad. We move onto the midweek slate which only contains six games so not a lot of options for us, but we'll do our best!

• Picks total - 17 out of 41
• Parlays - 1 out of 13
• Correct scores - 6 out of 41

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

Tuesday, January 12th, 2021

Newcastle United @ Sheffield United- 1:00 pm ET

Newcastle come into this game without a win in their last five league games and having being dumped out of the FA Cup at holders Arsenal over the weekend. They've also managed just two goals in their last four games and failed to score at the weekend. Manager Steve Bruce has talked about the effects of the Covid outbreak which hit the squad in December with two key members of the first team still sidelined by the effects of it. Their top scorer Callum Wilson was also withdrawn from their FA Cup squad late as a precaution with an injury so things continue to trend in the wrong direction for Newcastle.

Sheffield United remain bottom of the table and without a league win but did get their first win in all competitions at the weekend by beating Bristol Rovers 3-2 in the FA Cup, albeit a side two divisions below them. It also marked the first time they scored three in a game this season and like their opponents for this game, are struggling to score. Three straight league games without scoring and just eight all season (17 games) is why Sheffield United are staring relegation in the face and their next three games after this are against sides in the top-5. So they have to win this one. I think they have a good chance to win as well but I'm reluctant to back them given how poor they've been. Either way, goals will be at a premium in this game.

The one thing Sheffield United does edge their opponents on is corners, ranking 10th in corners this season with 84 in 17 games. Newcastle meanwhile ranks last in corners with just 62 in 16 games. With Sheffield United needing to win and as the home side, I expect them to have more corners than the visitors.

Newcastle United 15th - 19 pts
Sheffield United 20th - 2 pts

Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 0 Newcastle United (Draftkings odds +575)

Betting Pick:

• Single game parlay - Sheffield United most corners & under 3.5 total goals @ -125 (Draftkings)

Wednesday, January 13th, 2021

Brighton @ Manchester City - 1:00 pm ET

Brighton got a much-needed point against Wolves last time out, coming from 3-1 down to draw 3-3. That was the first time since matchweek 2 that they managed to score three in a game. It's now eight straight league games without a win for Brighton and four without a clean sheet. They have managed just three clean sheets all season and they came against teams who rank in the bottom five for goals scored. Following this game, Brighton faces Leeds and Fulham so will see those two games as much more likely matches to get points from. This game could end up being one Brighton go through the motions with.

Manchester City looked at their imperious best last time out, beating Chelsea 3-1, a scoreline that flattered Chelsea. That was their third straight league win and they are now unbeaten in their last seven. Despite their recent run, Manchester City's performances had been short of their usual standard until the Chelsea victory. Star player Kevin de Bruyne is still not playing at his best and record goalscorer Sergio Aguero has just two starts in the league this season. Since their last league game, Manchester City has reached the Carabao Cup final (beating Manchester United 2-0) and progressed in the FA Cup (beating Birmingham 3-0) so are looking like they're hitting peak form.

This will be the seventh time the two teams have met in the Premier League and Manchester City has won all six previous encounters with an aggregate score of 20-2. Last season's fixture saw the home side win 4-0 and I think we will see the same sort of outcome again this time.

Brighton 17th - 14 pts
Manchester City 5th - 29 pts

Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 0 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +950)

Betting Pick:

• Handicap - Manchester City -2.5 @ +153 (Pinnacle)

Fulham @ Tottenham - 3:15 pm ET

Originally (and when I first analyzed this matchweek), Tottenham was due to face Aston Villa. Due to the Aston Villa Covid-19 outbreak, the game has been postponed and in its place, Tottenham will now host Fulham in a game that was postponed on December 30th after Fulham had a Covid-19 outbreak. Caught up yet? Thankfully for us, our original pick actually plays up well for this rearranged game.

Tottenham put their recent struggles behind them with a 3-0 victory against Leeds in their last league game, ending a run of four games without a win. Like Manchester City, since their last league game, they have reached the Carabao Cup final (beating Brentford) and progressed in the FA Cup (beating non-league amateur side Marine). Tottenham's recent away form has been a big part of why they had a blip but they will now be at home this week where they've won three of their last four without conceding.

Fulham has drawn their last four league games and their FA Cup match at the weekend ended as a 0-0 draw after 90 minutes before Fulham won 2-0 after extra time. As of Monday morning, they were planning for a week of training before hosting local rivals Chelsea on Friday. Those plans have now been torn up and they need to prepare for a trip to Tottenham with a couple of days' notice. Hardly ideal preparation.

Initially, I looked at the cards market as offering value due to the referee appointment and Aston Villa being tied for second as the team with the most yellow cards. The team they're tied with? Fulham. So our analysis is almost identical for this make-up game.

I expect Tottenham to play in their normal manner which sees few goals at both ends. I also expect Tottenham to win but recent struggles in holding on for 1-0 victories is a slight concern and they will be more inclined to look for a second goal if they do take the lead. While Fulham ranks tied-2nd in yellow cards received with 31 in 15 games, Tottenham is 14th with 23 in 16 games. The referee for this game is Paul Tierney who has issued the most cards this season (42 yellows and 3 reds in 10 games) and he has taken charge of three Tottenham games this season, awarding a total of 16 yellow cards (just three to Tottenham players) in those games.

Fulham 18th - 11 pts
Tottenham 4th - 29 pts

Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 0 Fulham (Draftkings odds +575)

Betting Pick:

•    Single-game parlay - Tottenham to win and Fulham most cards @ +130 (Draftkings)

Parlay

• You can take all three picks @ +1047. But playing it a bit safer on this small slate seems like a better idea so I'm going with Sheffield United most corners, Manchester City -1.5 and Fulham most cards at +274.

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back later this week for the matchweek 19 picks.

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