RADIO
Matchweek 19 is the biggest and strangest matchweek of the season. It begins with a full ten game slate over the weekend which is now just nine games due to Aston Villa's match with Everton being postponed due to the former's Covid-19 outbreak. There are also five additional midweek games before Aston Villa are due to host Newcastle United the following Saturday which originally got postponed due to a Covid-19 outbreak within the Newcastle squad. This is all after Fulham vs Chelsea was moved back a day to reschedule Fulham's game with Tottenham for this past Wednesday after that got postponed in December. Confused? If you are, no need to worry. What we will be doing is splitting the matchweek into two parts so we have the weekend games here and the midweek games in part two on Monday.
- Picks total - 18 out of 44
- Parlays - 1 out of 14
- Correct scores - 7 out of 44
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, January 16th, 2021
Brighton @ Leeds United- 10:00 am ET
Brighton had a credible 1-0 defeat at Manchester City during midweek, a game I expected Brighton to suffer a heavy defeat in. They did have to ride their luck a bit as Manchester City missed a few good chances, hit the woodwork and missed a penalty in injury-time (which also cost us the parlay but I'm not salty about that). Brighton did have a couple of opportunities to score on the counter-attack themselves in the game and for the most part, they did look more resolute defensively. That was aided by Manchester City's predominantly slow build-up play, something Leeds will do the opposite of. Despite the improved performance last time out, Brighton has now gone nine league games without a win and have just one clean sheet in that time.
Leeds games continue to be the most entertaining in the EPL with a total of 63 goals in 17 games (30 for and 33 against). Defensively, they have just two clean sheets in eight home games and have only failed to score twice. They were humiliated last weekend suffering a 3-0 defeat in the FA Cup to lower league Crawley Town so will be desperate to bounce back with a win here. Whether they will take the three points, I'm not so confident in, but I fully expect them to get back to their high tempo cavalier style of play leading to goals at both ends of the pitch.
Despite both sides being in the bottom half of the table, they both rank inside the top-6 in terms of corners taken, Leeds is 4th with 102 (17 games) and Brighton is 6th with 99 (18 games). Leeds has also conceded the 5th highest number of corners this year (96) so goals and corners should be the order of play here.
Brighton 17th - 14 pts
Leeds United 11th - 23 pts
Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 2 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +1100)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Both team to score Yes & over 9.5 total corners @ +125 (Draftkings)
Southampton @ Leicester City - 3:00 pm ET
Southampton come into this game having had nearly two weeks off following their FA Cup tie being postponed last weekend. Their previous five league games have been a bit on the dull side with just two goals scored and two goals conceded in that run. They did beat current champions Liverpool 1-0 last time out but their lack of goals is a worry and they could be without top scorer Danny Ings who tested positive for Covid-19 following their last game. He's eligible to return for this game if he tests negative and is fit enough but if not, it's difficult to see where Southampton gets goals from.
Leicester has just one defeat from their last seven league games, scoring two or more in five of those games. Only the top two sides in the league (Liverpool and Manchester United) has scored more than Leicester's 31 goals this season and they've been pretty solid defensively with seven goals conceded in their last seven games. Leicester has actually won more points in away games (22) than home games (10) so appears to be suffering from the lack of fans in the stadium more than most.
The referee appointed to this game is Stuart Attwell who has dished out 43 yellow cards in nine games this season, the highest bookings per game ratio in the league this season (4.8 per game). While Southampton only ranks 12 in most yellow cards this season, Leicester has been the most penalized team with 35 bookings in 17 games. Attwell officiated just one game involving these teams this season, Leicester's 2-1 win at Sheffield United, where he handed out four yellow cards (three to Leicester players).
Southampton 7th - 29 pts
Leicester City 4th - 32 pts
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 1 Southampton (Pinnacle & Draftkings odds +700)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Leicester City to win & over 2.5 total cards @ +123 (Draftkings)
Sunday, January 17th, 2021
Tottenham @ Sheffield United - 9:00 am ET
Tottenham's uninspiring form continued in midweek with a 1-1 draw at home to Fulham, who had barely two days notice of the game going ahead. It was a familiar story for Tottenham, scoring first then looking to sit back and defend their one-goal lead but being unable to do so. They have just one clean sheet from their last six games, a 3-0 win against Leeds which was their only win during this run. Until Head Coach Jose Mourinho changes course and looks to utilize his best two players (Harry Kane and Heung Min-Son) to actually score more than once before sitting back to defend, we're not likely to see any high scoring games involving Tottenham.
As we predicted on Tuesday, Sheffield United picked up their first league win of the season with a 1-0 victory against Newcastle United. They still had to rely on a second-half penalty to win the game and had the advantage of playing against ten men for the entire second-half so while the win might boost confidence, it was as much an indictment against Newcastle as it was praiseworthy for Sheffield United. They remain the league's lowest scorers with nine goals in 18 games, three of which have been penalties.
If Sheffield United does find a way to win, it'll be more than likely 1-0 and despite Tottenham finding ways to drop points after taking the lead, it's hard to see Sheffield United doing the same thing if they go behind. Tottenham has yet to trail at half-time in away game this season while Sheffield United hasn't led at the break in any home game. If that trend continues, we're likely in for an insipid second half.
Tottenham 6th - 30 pts
Sheffield United 20th - 5 pts
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 - 1 Tottenham (Pinnacle odds +550)
Betting Pick:
- Both Teams to score/total goals - No and under 2.5 @ +130 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks @ +1154
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back later this week for the matchweek 19 part 2 picks.
