EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 23: English Premier League

A much better week for us with three winners out of our four picks plus a big +950 correct score winner. Sheffield United got us off to a flyer with their victory. Crystal Palace and Newcastle played out a 3-goal game when we had under 2.5. Then Everton bagged us the pick and correct score before the final matchweek game also got us the pick winner. We were close to getting three correct scores too so things are trending up. The schedule continues to be unrelenting but we'll keep looking at the fixtures and where the value bets are. The last matchweek preview was a somewhat TL:DR version due to time constraints and this one will be too. Same level of research, just a shorter write-up.

• Picks total - 24 out of 59
• Parlays - 2 out of 19
• Correct scores - 8 out of 60

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

Saturday, February 06th, 2021

Brighton @ Burnley- 10:00 am ET

Brighton pulled off a huge upset to beat Liverpool away on Wednesday. The only other team to win a Premier League game away at Liverpool in the last 18 months? Burnley. And Burnley's victory came two weeks ago. That's how bizarre the league is this season.

Brighton's win made it 10 points from four games, with all three wins being 1-0 and a goalless draw thrown in. Four clean sheets in a row have helped Brighton pulled ten points clear of the relegation zone and have leapfrogged Burnley in the league.

After back-to-back wins, Burnley has suffered two straight 2-0 defeats and slipped back into the last safe spot in the league table. They will see this as a big chance to jump out of potential trouble and another step nearer to safety. Since both teams got into the Premier League, they've met seven times with four draws and Brighton has just the solitary win. This screams of being a low-scoring game and Brighton are installed as solid favorites on the back of their recent run. But I'm not sold completely on them and Burnley is one of the few teams with a better home record than away record this season.

Burnley 17th - 22 pts
Brighton 15th - 24 pts

Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 0 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +850)

Betting Pick:

• Burnley draw no bet @ +160 (Pinnacle)

Southampton @ Newcastle United - 10:00 am ET

Newcastle couldn't make it two wins in two games, losing at home to Crystal Palace 2-1 after taking a second-minute lead. They dominated the game but couldn't find another goal and have now managed two goals in a game just once in their last ten EPL fixtures.

Southampton lost an EPL game 9-0 for the second time in two seasons on Tuesday, this one away at Manchester United. That defeat did come with a caveat as they were reduced to ten men in the second minute and finished the game with nine players after a ludicrous red card and penalty decision.

This game has the feel of two struggling teams that play out a cagey affair, but I don't think either team is good enough defensively to keep a clean sheet. The ref for this game is Craig Pawson who has shown 43 cards (41 yellows and 2 reds) in 12 games including a red card in midweek to Arsenal defender David Luiz for running in a straight line and grazing his knee on the striker's foot (go look it up).

Newcastle United 16th - 22 pts
Southampton 12th - 29 pts

Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 2 Crystal Palace (Pinnacle odds +1300)

Betting Pick:

• Single-game parlay - Both teams to score YES, Newcastle & Southampton both over 0.5 yellow cards @ +125 (Draftkings)

Sunday, February 07th, 2021

Leicester City @ Wolves - 9:00 am ET

Wolves picked up their first league win in eight games with a 2-1 victory at home to Arsenal on Tuesday. As mentioned, they needed Arsenal to be reduced to ten men and win a penalty for nothing to equalize and still nearly conceded an equalizer against nine men. Wolves also could easily have been 3-0 down before that farcical penalty decision and still needed a 30-yard screamer for the winning goal. The win might help boost morale but they didn't show enough to suggest they're back to anywhere near their best over the last couple of seasons.

Leicester got back to winning ways with a comfortable 2-0 victory against Fulham on Wednesday and should welcome back top scorer Jamie Vardy this weekend after missing their last three games through injury. As is the trend this season, Leicester has a better away record than at home and only once this season have they lost (3-0 against Liverpool). In their six games away to sides in the bottom half of the table, they have five wins and a draw with an aggregate score of 14-4.

Wolves 14th - 26 pts
Leicester City 3rd - 42 pts

Score prediction: Wolves 0 - 2 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +975)

Betting Pick:

• Money line - Leicester City to win @ +119 (Pinnacle)

Parlay

• You can take all four picks @ +1181

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back later this week for the matchweek 24 picks.

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