RADIO
Last weekend started with a bang; a correct pick and a correct score prediction (at +1150) in our first game. In the next two games, we were let down with corners. Sheffield United did avoid defeat as part of the single-game parlay but mustered just two corners to Fulham's five. Leicester also managed just two corners to Aston Villa's seven so despite Aston Villa picking up multiple yellow cards, it was another failed pick. We dust ourselves off and go again in Matchweek 6, with three picks across three days. One important note is this Sunday in the UK the clocks go back so there's a four hour time difference between the UK and the East Coast for a week.
- Picks total - 2 out of 6
- Parlays - 0 out of 2
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take into consideration these things before you place any bet. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, October 24th, 2020
Crystal Palace @ Fulham - 10:00 am ET
Fulham picked up their first point of the season last weekend with a well-earned draw at Sheffield United. A missed penalty and poor finishing cost them all three points but it was still their best performance of this young season and gives them something to build on. Their lack of goals is still a concern but after conceding ten goals in their first three games, they've let in just one in each of their last two games as they seek their first clean sheet of the campaign.
Crystal Palace is also finding goals hard to come by with three of their six so far coming in their second game at Manchester United. They have conceded eight in their five games but again, half of those came in one game when they lost 4-0 at Chelsea. Only a last-minute equalizer denied Palace a win last time out at home to Brighton but last season's second-lowest scorers will need to start scoring more frequently if they are to keep away from the relegation zone.
Fulham has shown signs of improvement in their last two games and will no doubt see this as an opportunity to pick up their first win. Whether they do or not is another question but their last two defensive displays suggest they will make it difficult for a Palace team who loves to play on the break and who failed to score more than two in any away game last season (totaling 16 goals in 19 away games). If I have to pick a winner, I'd edge it Fulham but I'm not yet prepared to back them to win until I see their improvements over a longer stretch. If they do win, it'll likely be a low scoring affair anyway.
Fulham 20th - 1 pts
Crystal Palace 14th - 7 pts
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Crystal Palace (Draftkings odds +500)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Fulham draw no bet @ -100 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, October 25th, 2020
Newcastle United @ Wolves - 12:30 pm ET
Wolves have won back-to-back games with a 1-0 scoreline and are looking like their old selves after a couple of heavy losses, most noticeably a 4-0 defeat against West Ham. Unlike last season, they don't have any European competition to worry about this season which might explain their slow start to last season. They look solid defensively again and despite a poor first half at Leeds last weekend, they still kept the game level before nicking a goal midway through the second half, as was their M.O for many games last year.
Newcastle was ten minutes away from a point against Manchester United last week before capitulating late and losing 4-1. Despite significant investment in their forward line, Newcastle still hasn't quite found forward fluidity. Their first three games saw them score three goals from just three shots on target and while they have scored seven goals in total (five games), two have come from the penalty spot and one was an own goal.
Last season, both meetings between these two ended in 1-1 a draw with Newcastle scoring first in both matches. One of those games was after Wolves had a midweek European fixture which many teams outside the "big-6" tend to struggle to cope with. Last season, Newcastle kept just four clean sheets away from home and failed to score in a total of 13 of their 38 games. Just nine times did they score more than one. Wolves meanwhile kept 13 clean sheets last year and conceded just one goal in 14 games. Despite the two draws last year, Wolves look primed to win this one in a tight yet comfortable victory.
One interesting area of note is these two teams' propensity for goals to come in the second half of their games. From Newcastle's seven goals scored this season, just two have come in the first half and only four of their nine conceded were in the first half. So 10 of the 16 total goals in their games came in the second half. It's a similar story for Wolves who have scored three of their five goals and conceded four of their seven total goals in the second half. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this game is 0-0 at half-time with Wolves coming out on top in the second period.
Wolves 6th - 9 pts
Newcastle 13th - 7 pts
Score prediction: Wolves 2 - 0 Newcastle (Pinnacle odds +725)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Wolves to win & under 3.5 total goals @ +125 (Draftkings)
Monday, October 26th, 2020
West Brom @ Brighton - 1:30 pm ET
Despite sitting in 16th place and with just four points, Brighton has had a solid start to the season. Their three losses have come against Chelsea, Manchester United and Everton. Despite those games, Brighton has managed to score in all five of their games this season and has totaled nine goals in their five games. Defensively they have struggled with their solitary clean sheet coming against Newcastle and shipping in a total of 11 goals in their other four games. They do actually rank 6th in expected goals scored (xG) with 8.1 so nothing about Brighton's attacking play has been flukey.
West Brom meanwhile has the joint-worst defensive record with 13 goals against in just five games. Their expected goals against (xGA) of 10.1 is dead last too. They did manage a clean sheet in their last game against Burnley, who has only managed to score three goals themselves so although the clean sheet was much needed, it wasn't exactly a huge scalp. Their highlight so far this season was leading Chelsea 3-0 at half-time, before folding in the second half and settling for a point. Their only other two goals this season came in a 5-2 loss against Everton so they've yet to find the balance between scoring goals and keeping them out.
Similarly to Fulham, West Brom has shown glimmers of improvement after starting the season with two heavy defeats. But they haven't shown enough to justify any confidence in backing them to even pick up a point against a decent Brighton team. One thing Brighton did well with last season was picking up points at home to sides in the bottom half of the table. They didn't lose a home game against the five sides who eventually finished below them and lost just three home games against teams outside the top-5. Their early season results paint a similar story.
Brighton 16th - 4 pts
West Brom 17th - 2 pts
Score prediction: Brighton 2 - 1 West Brom (Draftkings odds +700)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Brighton to win & over 1.5 total goals @ +108 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- All three picks @ +936
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks next week!
