RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are finally back from the final International Break of the season and we get to start off with a nice five-game slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST with Manchester City -480 the overwhelming favorites. There is a chance that some players do sit out with little time to train with their teams after flying back from qualifiers.
Pricing is much tighter and contests are getting more heated which will start to influence our decisions much more as we grind out the rest of the season.
Please Be Advised: This writeup does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 31
H] Brighton & Hove Albion (-195) vs [A] Norwich (+550): Total: u2.5
Neither team is in good form, with both clubs dropping their last six matches. Furthermore, they have lost by two goals or more in each match during that run. This is expected to be a highly contested match with Brighton fighting to stay out of the relegation zone and Norwich fighting to get out of it.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Neal Maupay-DK $5.8K || FD $17
Maupay is nothing to write home about, but right now he is expected to lead the attack and see all offense ultimately generated through him. He will also be supported by wing play which should only increase the number of opportunities created for the striker. It is also a positive sign that he is averaging at least 2 shots per game in his last five matches. When assessing the slate, Norwich is the second-worst team in terms of shots conceded per match – 5.86 –, proving that Maupay will have every chance to succeed.
Midfielders
Pascal Gross-DK $7K || FD $12
Gross will be one of the higher-owned midfielders on the slate because of his excellent floor value and his potential to hit his ceiling going against a weaker opponent at home. There are a few more dazzling names from Manchester City and Chelsea which could bounce some off Gross, but it will be hard to fade him based on his matchup alone. The most important factor with him expecting to play in a deeper role will be if he can join the attack enough to get involved in potential goals. If he can do that, his salary will be well worth it.
Defenders
Tariq Lamptey-DK $5.7K || FD $7
I will be very surprised if Lamptey is not crazy owned in every contest on the slate. This is one of the best matchups out of all positions in all matches. Lamptey who is registered as a defender on DraftKings is playing as a right-midfielder/center-attacking midfielder in the formation and will be expected to generate a massive amount of peripherals. Furthermore, his ceiling is very possible here against the team that concedes the second-most shots on the slate, as well as, the second-most chances created.
[H] Burnley (+1300) vs [A] Manchester City (-480): Total: o3
This could possibly be one of the most lopsided matches on paper all season. In the last six meetings, Burnley has scored once with Manchester City outscoring them 21-1. In Burnley's last six matches they have been outscored 9-5 while not scoring in their most recent three. Manchester City on the flip side has only conceded once in their last six, outscoring opponents 16-1. All signs point to a clean sheet for the title contenders traveling to Turf Moor. This is expected to be a relatively straightforward match.
Expected Outcome: Manchester City 3-0
Forwards
Riyad Mahrez-DK $11K || FD $19
Mahrez could be the highest-owned player on the slate depending on how formations and lineups shake an hour prior to kick-off. The City winger has been popping off lately and in his last two matches, he has 12 shots and 2 goals. The more impressive part of that stat line is that out of 12 of his shots, six of them were on target. If City is to provide an attacking return, this dynamo will have his hands stirring the pot.
Midfielders
Jack Grealish-DK $6.3K || FD $17
I am highlighting Grealish here because this will be a heavily-owned team stack and you need to get different somewhere. Grealish himself has not been great or spectacular this season outside of a few glimpses here and there and he has ultimately underperformed since his arrival from Aston Villa. This does provide an excellent opportunity though for him in a very favorable matchup. If he ends up performing, he will hit his ceiling rather quickly.
Defenders
Joao Cancelo-DK $6.6 || FD $15
Everyone should be familiar with star defender Joao Cancelo by this point if you follow the English Premier League even slightly. The full-back has been a revelation for the title contenders this season and over his last five appearances, he has only produced under double-digits on DraftKings once and it was against rivals Manchester United. Cancelo is the definition of an attacking wing-back and he will rival Tariq Lamptey of Brighton for the highest ownership at defender.
[H] Chelsea (-275) vs [A] Brentford (+775) Total: o2.5
A similar history to Manchester City and Burnley resides here with Chelsea and Brentford. In their 5 meetings together, Chelsea has outscored Brentford 13-2 with Brentford only scoring in one of the matches. Brentford is also traveling to Stamford Bridge on the back of a terrible run of away results – lost five of their last six –. They have shown signs of life since the new signing Christian Eriksen joined the flanks, but will it be enough to defeat the Blues at home? Chelsea is in great form after going through a lull and they are back in the running for a top-four finish and what is expected to be another textbook win here.
Expected Outcome: Chelsea 2-0
Forwards
Kai Havertz-DK $8.2K || FD $18
Do the Blues have their new striker? It seems like they do. Havertz is finally coming into his own since his arrival to the English Premier League and in his last three matches, he has accumulated 4 goals, 1 assist and 8 shots. Chelsea also has a favorable matchup against a defense that concedes the third-most shots on the slate and the most created opportunities.
Midfielders
Hakim Ziyech-DK $8.4K || FD $19
In what will most likely play out as a better FanDuel play than anything, Ziyech has the makings to seriously outproduce teammate Mason Mount. Mount is playing in a slightly deeper role like Kevin de Bruyne of Manchester City, while Ziyech plays alongside Havertz on the wing. The winger also has 3 goals and 10 shots over his last four appearances. If there was ever a perfect two-man stack it would be these two, especially on FanDuel where Ziyech will get credited with big chances created.
Defenders
Ethan Pinnock-DK $2.5K || FD $13
Another play that is more suited for FanDuel’s scoring system is Pinnock. The center-back is expected to be splitting duties with teammate Pontus Jansson at the heart of the defense. Which will lead to a very active day for Pinnock and potentially a good performance under FanDuel’s defense-friendly scoring system.
[H] Leeds United (+145) vs [A] Southampton (+175) Total: o2.5
This looks to be a relatively close match with Southampton and Leeds coming in on the opposite sides of the form spectrum. However, Leeds’ home record is not great and they have only won two of their last six home matches. Southampton on the other hand has dropped points in only two of their last six matches. With a showcase win against Tottenham and then a devastating 4-0 loss to Aston Villa. If you can guess which side will show up in this match, you can ship a GPP and you should probably go to the casino afterward too.
Expected Outcome: 2-2
Forwards
Raphinha-DK $9.3K || FD $18
A steep price to pay on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel and something that will drive his ownership down drastically when there are much better matchups at the same price. Raphinha will be relied on heavily under new bench boss Jesse March’s system and he has already said that he intends to convince Raphinha to stay past this season by playing well to finish the current season at hand. As stated, both clubs are in dire need of points and Leeds’ success has been driven straight through Raphinha. The winger has 1 assist, 11 shots and 25 crosses over his last five appearances.
Midfielders
James Ward-Prowse-DK $9.5K || FD $18
Now to assess the flip side of the match with playmaker Ward-Prowse. The midfielder conducts the entire Southampton train whether it is offense or defense. He is also in a slightly better matchup than opponent Raphinha due to Leeds’ poor defense. Leeds not only concedes the most shots per game on the slate – 6.23 –, but also the most goals – 2.23 –. As expected, there should be a few goals from each side in this heated matchup and Ward-Prowse will be right in the thick of it. Over his last five appearances, he has scored double-digit points on DraftKings each appearance.
Defenders
Kyle Walker-Peters-DK $4.7 || FD $10
It is quite comical that Stewart Dallas from Leeds is more expensive than Walker-Peters. The Southampton wing-back has been outperforming his counterpart for a minimum of five matches now. He also happens to be a driving force for counters and transition play. After a big run of bad form for Walker-Peters, he seems to have found himself once more with 8 shots, 14 crosses, 5 tackles and 6 interceptions over his last five appearances.
[H] Wolverhampton (+200) vs [A] Southampton (+160) Total: o2
Results have been all over the board for these two when examining their head-to-head history, as well as, their current form at home and away respectively. This will ultimately come down to if Wolverhampton’s defense can hold up or if Aston Villa’s newly found offense can show up. This match will ultimately depict the entire slate.
Expected Outcome: Aston Villa 2-1
Forwards
Hwang Hee-Chan-DK $5.2K || FD $15
With teammate Raul Jimenez out, Hee-Chan looks to take the mantle as the leading striker once more. The forward has not seen the same success as he did with Red Bull-Leipzig of the Bundesliga, but he is showing signs of improvement. He also happens to be one of the less-expensive strikers on the slate for both platforms which could pay off dividends if he happens to bag a goal. The major concern with his play of recent though is his lack of shot volume. This is at best a boom-or-bust candidate, but it could win you a GPP if he pans out.
Midfielders
Philippe Coutinho-DK $8.6K || FD $18
Coutinho is one of the only midfielders on the slate that is priced at the higher-end and offers very little safety in terms of point production. Coutinho is a boom-or-bust option at its finest, but he has been a major role player in Aston Villa’s offense since his arrival. In his last five appearances, he has 2 goals, 1 assist, 13 shots and 7 crosses. Will he be able to continue to produce these types of numbers against one of the better defenses in the league remains to be seen.
Defenders
Lucas Digne-DK $5.5K || FD $12
If Digne is able to return to the lineup for Villa, it will be a massive boost both offensively and defensively. The wing-back has been a big contributor since his arrival to Aston Villa this season. The biggest part of his contribution though is his role on set-pieces. This can also make roster construction a little tricky with a few relatively good options at defense.
Goalies
Ederson-DK $5.9K || FD $14
Ederson has by far the best chances of keeping a clean sheet on the slate. If you did not read the matchup preview, Burnley cannot score goals right now and the stats don’t lie. Burnley is second to last in the table for goals for this season with 22 total in 27 matches. The only concern though is how low will Ederson’s floor be since Burnley are also last in shot for with just 81 shots this season.
Edouard Mendy-DK $5.8K || FD $13
If you do not want to pay the slight increase in salary for Ederson, it is imperative that you take Mendy, unless you really don’t want to play the chalk. Mendy is the next best in the goalie pool with a prime matchup against Brentford. The visitors, unlike Burnley, are closer to the middle of the table in reference to goals for this season, however, their shots for are closer to the bottom of the table. This will also affect Mendy’s ceiling as well.
Expected Corner Takers:
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross
Norwich: Raschia/Gilmour
Burnley: McNeil/Westwood
Manchester City: de Bruyne
Chelsea: Mount
Brentford: Jensen/Mbuemo
Leeds United: Raphinha
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
Wolverhampton: Moutinho
Aston Villa: Digne/McGinn
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
