RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are at the tail end of the Premier League season for yet another year. Each and every point is even more crucial than the last and teams compete to stay above water and survive for yet another season, while others compete for glory and final standings to play Champions League next season. Today I will guide you through this four-game slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST with Aston Villa, -250 the biggest favorites.
Please Be Advised: This writeup does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 35
[H] Aston Villa (-250) vs [A] Norwich City (+650): Total: o2.5
Neither club is in great form, however, Norwich is still notorious for their atrocious away record – 2-11-3 –. Norwich is also all but confirmed to be the first club relegated this season unless the stars align for them. Due to their club status, they may play more free-flowing and cause chaos for other clubs. Although, Villa should have the talent on the pitch to keep the Canaries at bay and take all three points at home.
Expected Outcome: Aston Villa 2-0
Forwards
Ollie Watkins-DK $7.7K || FD $17
Watkins is nothing stellar and he has yet to fulfill his potential since his Premier League debut. However, he has a great matchup against a hapless defense and he also provides an extra bonus on FanDuel where they reward chances created more. If there is any time for Watkins to produce a brace, it is here against the worst defense in the top-flight that concedes 1.49 shots per game.
Midfielders
Philip Coutinho-DK $9K || FD $20
Coutinho is more of a boom-or-bust option on DraftKings, however, on FanDuel, he provides excellent value due to the created chances. More often than not, Coutinho posts double-digit points on FanDuel, where he just scratches the surface on DraftKings. However, he does have a great matchup, aforementioned in Ollie’s highlight and he will have every bit of a chance to produce a ceiling game. Over his last five appearances, he is averaging 2.0 shots and 1.6 crosses per 90 minutes in all competitions.
Defenders
Grant Hanley-DK $2.8K || FD $12
To change things up, we will highlight an excellent defender play on FanDuel for this matchup. Hanley has been a massive piece to Norwich’s defense all season and the center back has produced double-digit points on FanDuel in 8 of his last 10 appearances. It would be a shock to see him not do it again here against an offensive-heavy Aston Villa side who will most likely run two strikers.
[H] Southampton (+125) vs [A] Crystal Palace (+215): Total: u2.5
Both clubs are in awful form and sit only two points off each other. Palace has dropped their last three away matches losing to Leicester, Chelsea and Newcastle United respectively in all competitions while being outscored 5-1. While Southampton has dropped four of their last six home matches to Newcastle United, Watford, Manchester City and Chelsea respectively in all competitions while being outscored 16-3. This meeting seems to be more of a stalemate than a firework show and it will most likely come down to Palace’s offense vs Southampton’s defense.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Wilfried Zaha-DK $9.8K || FD $18
There are not many solid options at striker in this matchup so we will be paying up. Zaha continues to be one of the brightest producers for Palace no matter the fixture. His absurd pace and skill on the ball keep defenses guessing each and every time they go against him. If there is any chance for Palace to score, Zaha will have his say. In the striker’s last five appearances, he is averaging, 3.4 shots and 0.8 crosses per 90 minutes in all competitions.
Midfielders
James Ward-Prowse-DK $10.4K || FD $19
Due to the fall of Conor Gallagher, the only true midfielder to pick from this matchup is Ward-Prowse thanks to his consistency and his floor. Ward-Prowse continues to take all set-pieces for Southampton and he remains the pacesetter for the club as well. Unfortunately, he is one of the highest-priced midfielders on the slate on FanDuel and he is the highest-priced on DraftKings. Deservingly so though and if you want the safety net, you will pay up for him. Although, in GPPs it is worth the risk to differentiate yourself and look elsewhere for a midfielder. Over his last five matches, he is averaging, 1.8 shots and 9.2 crosses per 90 minutes in all competitions.
Defenders
Mohammed Salisu-DK $3.1K || FD $13
We are going to jump back to FanDuel for Salisu. The center back has been a huge help in restoring Southampton’s defense and he will have his work cut out for him against opposing forward Wilfried Zaha. Over Salisu’s last nine matches, he has posted double-digit points on FanDuel in eight of them.
[H] Watford (+170) vs [A] Burnley (+175) Total: u2.5
Watford and Burnley are going in two different directions in all aspects right now. Burnley is currently undefeated in their last two and have also kept clean sheets in both matches. While Watford has dropped their last four and have scored twice during that timeframe. This is an extremely important match for both clubs though regarding relegation this season and who will stay in the league. These two clubs have also produced very few goals over their history and we could see that again as they both joust for crucial points.
Expected Outcome: 0-0
Forwards
Wout Weghorst-DK $6.3K || FD $16
I will be the first to admit that I was wrong about Weghorst. When Burnley signed him, I thought it was a terrible move and they once again made a lackluster signing to “help” their scoring woes. However, Weghorst has been exactly that in many different ways. Whether he is contributing in knocking down balls from set-pieces, or he is holding up the ball as a target man to eventually distribute it to those trailing behind him. He has been a huge piece in Burnley’s offense since his arrival to Turf Moor and he will play a big part again against a lackluster and “small” defensive line that Watford possesses. Through his last five games, he is averaging, 2.0 shots and 0.2 crosses per 90 minutes in all competitions.
Midfielders
Dwight McNeil-DK $7.9K || FD $12
McNeil remains the surviving set-piece taker for the Clarets after Westwood went down with an injury a few gameweeks ago. The winger is going to generate a lot of peripheral value against the weaker Watford defense as he has done all season. Although, there is a slight issue with his overall value since teammate Maxwel Cornet has started taking set-pieces too. Nevertheless, McNeil will still provide the open-play value as well. In his last five appearances, the winger is averaging, 1.6 shots and 2.6 crosses per 90 minutes in all competitions.
Defenders
Hassane Kamara-DK $5K || FD $14
Kamara is one of the better overall options at defense for both DraftKings and FanDuel because of his two-way play and his versatile skill set. The fullback not only offers a physical body on the defensive line that will be needed against the likes of Dwight McNeil and Maxwel Cornet. He also knows when to join the attack and provide value from the flank. If he can offer enough help offensively and possibly get a sliver of the set-pieces, he will reach value easily. In his last five appearances, he is averaging, 0.2 shots, 0.4 crosses, 1.2 tackles and 3.6 interceptions per 90 minutes in all competitions.
[H] Wolverhampton (+170) vs [A] Brighton & Hove Albion (+185) Total: u2
Wolverhampton has completely fallen off the map in terms of scoring goals, while Brighton is in rather good form. The visitors have only lost once in their last four matches – against Manchester City 3-0 –. Whereas, the hosts have dropped their last two against Newcastle and Burnley. They were also shut out in both matches. This meeting is looking like a battle of defenses more than anything and we will be lucky to see a goal scored.
Expected Outcome: Brighton 1-0
Forwards
Leandro Trossard-DK $6.6K || FD $16
Trossard is the only consistent attacker from either club in this match, hence him being highlighted. The striker, converted attacking midfielder, is averaging 1.6 shots over his last five matches, while also helping with set-pieces here and there. His ceiling is capped though since he no longer features in the front of the attack and he is more of a supporting cast. If Brighton manages to pot a few goals, he could see a ceiling game against a strong Wolves defense, otherwise, he will be nothing more than an average at best striker.
Midfielders
Pascal Gross-DK $7K || FD $13
With teammate Alexis Mac Allister expected not to start, Gross should see the majority of set-pieces in this meeting with the Wolves. The German midfielder has seen a drastic drop in production since he took more of a backseat in Brighton’s starting XI. However, he is still an important figure in the club. Owners will want to surely keep an eye on the lineup though before making a decision on rostering Gross, since he could be vultured by Mac Allister and Marc Cucurella.
Defenders
Jonny-DK $5.9K || FD $12
Jonny may be one of the easier “locks” of the slate due to the slim pickings at defense. The wingback since re-joining the Wolves has been a revelation in terms of both defense and offense. In his last five games, he is averaging, 1.4 shots, 1.8 crosses, 1.8 tackles and 0.4 interceptions per 90 minutes in all competitions. As long as Wolverhampton continue to play a more attacking formation with Jonny out wide, he will be one of their best producers in all facets.
Goalies
Emiliano Martinez-DK $5.8K || FD $12
Martinez offers the best chance at a straightforward win on the slate today. The keeper is playing against one of the worst offenses and defenses in the top-flight, providing a pretty clear path to victory. Even though he has struggled lately, conceding 9 goals in his last four appearances, he should still be safe enough to grab the three points here.
Nick Pope-DK $4.8K || FD $9
If you do not want to pay all the way up for keeper on the slate, you can drop down and pivot to Nick Pope who is playing lights out under caretaker Michael Jackson. In Pope’s last two matches, he has collected clean sheets in each while making a total of eight saves. Watford is struggling for goals and Pope could see a third straight clean sheet at a discounted salary.
Expected Corner Takers:
Aston Villa: Cash
Norwich: Gilmour
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
Crystal Palace: Gallagher/Olise
Watford: Louza
Burnley: McNeil/Cornet
Wolverhampton: Moutinho
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
