RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are blessed with a tiny three-game slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST with Arsenal, -155 the biggest favorites. As we approach the end of the season with outside competitions like the Champions League taking precedent over domestic play, there will be rotation which can create value plays and or make slates much harder to predict.
Please Be Advised: This writeup does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 32
[H] Arsenal (-155) vs [A] Brighton & Hove Albion (+475): Total: 2.5 u
The Gunners and the Seagulls are in opposite form right now, with the hosts winning five of their last six matches and the visitors losing five of their last six matches. To make matters worse, Brighton has only scored once in their last six in a 2-1 loss to Newcastle and they have been outscored 11-1 during the timeframe. Although Arsenal did have a shock loss to Crystal Palace a week ago, the hosts look to take all three points at home in their chase for a top-four finish.
Expected Outcome: Arsenal 2-0
Forwards
Alex Lacazette-DK $7.7K || FD $17
Lacazette is a shell of his former golden boot self when he played for Lyon in Ligue One. The striker has struggled to find consistency in the English Premier League, but we find ourselves with slim pickings at striker on the short slate. Brighton is not an overly-aggressive club, but they still concede plenty of chances to the opposition and if Arsenal scores, it would be hard for Lacazette to not be a part of it.
Midfielders
Bukayo Saka-DK $9.9K || FD $19
Saka has been a massive part of Arsenal's success since he debuted. The winger who originally started off as a wing-back has a large role in the attack for the club. Whether it is set-pieces or controlling the pace of the game, he is always where the ball is. Due to the small slate, he will be highly owned in a good matchup and it will be hard to win without him in the lineup if he performs. Over his last five appearances, he has 2 goals, 1 assist, 11 shots and 14 crosses.
Defenders
Tariq Lamptey-DK $5K || FD $7
Lamptey will most likely be an afterthought due to his matchup and other options at the position. However, he could end up playing well, more so on FanDuel because of the defensive-friendly scoring. Either way, Lamptey is expected to play as a wing-back/winger hybrid, helping control the pace of the game. He will also have his fair share of creative measures for Brighton too. His price is up there for defenders, but he could be a difference-maker when winning or not in a GPP.
[H] Southampton (+295) vs [A] Chelsea (-105): Total: 2 ¾ u
This matchup could ultimately dictate how the slate goes because of the questions surrounding both clubs. Two weeks ago, Chelsea would have still been decent favorites. However, after they were outscored 7-2 between Brentford (4-1 loss) and Real Madrid (3-1 loss), their form is at best questionable. With Southampton playing at home, they could be in a prime position to also upset Chelsea and they are a great defensive stack on FanDuel.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Che Adams-DK $6.5K || FD $16
If Southampton is to produce any goals in this outing with Chelsea, Adams will have every part to do with it. The striker is the main man on the front lines and he has 11 shots in his last five appearances, as well as 1 goal and 1 assist. The only negative to Adams is his salary, which is much greater than his partner Adam Armstrong.
Midfielders
Hakim Ziyech-DK $9K || FD $18
You really have the pick of the litter at midfield in this matchup. Not only do you have Ziyech, but you also have James Ward-Prowse and Mason Mount. If it came down to consistency though it is a battle between Ward-Prowse and Ziyech. Over Ziyech's last five matches, he has 3 goals, 11 shots and 51 crosses. The matchup will be close and Ziyech will be pulling strings as much as he can from the flank.
Defenders
Valentino Livramento-DK $4.3K || FD $11
Although Livramento will be a much better option on FanDuel, he will still be an excellent option as a less-expensive choice for DraftKings too. The wingback will be very busy against the Blues and he also offers a slightly better all-around game than his opposite wingback Kyle Walker-Peters.
[H] Watford (+175) vs [A] Leeds United (+155) Total: 2.5 o
We are almost in a relegation battle with these two clubs. Watford is in the thick of it with Leeds just outside of the turmoil. Furthermore, even with the Hornets having home-field advantage, it will be hard going against a moderately healthy and in-form Leeds club. Since Jesse Marsch has taken over Leeds, they are undefeated and they could surely extend that streak here.
Expected Outcome: Leeds 2-1
Forwards
Emmanuel Dennis-DK $6K || FD $17
There are not many great options at forward to choose from when searching for a legitimate striker. However, Dennis will fit the bill. Leeds' defense is still a struggle at best, conceding 15.23 shots per match. They are expected to get some much-needed support with players returning from injury. However, it is hard to say how much of a help they will truly be. Statistically, Dennis does not show to be much of a help for Watford's attack, but the striker is a significant piece of the puzzle and he has the potential to break the slate.
Midfielders
Raphinha-DK $8.3K || FD $18
I would be extremely surprised if Raphinha is not 50 percent or more owned on the slate, solely due to his soft salary. The winger is Leeds' entire offense and new bench boss Jesse Marsch is trying to do everything possible to keep him at Elland Road after this season. This could end up being a ceiling game and another performance to help boost Leeds up the standings.
Defenders
Hassane Kamara-DK $4K || FD $13
Another tremendous play at defense that could pay huge dividends on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Kamara is known for his two-way play and he has been a huge piece of Watford's defensive restructure. Over his last five performances, he has 3 shots, 12 tackles won and 20 interceptions.
Goalies
Fraser Forster-DK $4.1K || FD $8
Forster is instantly getting highlighted due to Chelsea’s inability to score lately. The club is struggling for goals and it is no surprise after the aforementioned drubbing by both Brentford and Real Madrid. Forster and all of Southampton have not been spectacular at defense either, although this is much more of a risky leap of faith than anything else. Forster could break the slate if he manages to shut down Chelsea’s weak offense. – Don’t be afraid to stack Chelsea after I just called out their poor play 😉 --
Aaron Ramsdale-DK $5.6K || FD $13
Ramsdale is going to be highly-coveted on the slate because of the question marks that surround Chelsea. Ramsdale has a much more straightforward matchup with a struggling Brighton side and Ramsdale is also playing at home, whereas Chelsea is playing away – if that truly matters at this point –. In order to give yourself a shot at a GPP, Ramsdale will be very high-owned in all contests and this is just one way to protect yourself en route to glory.
Expected Corner Takers:
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross
Arsenal: Saka
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
Chelsea: Mount-Ziyech
Watford: Sarr
Leeds: Raphinha
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
