RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are at the tail end of the Premier League season for yet another year. Each and every point is even more crucial than the last and teams compete to stay above water and survive for yet another season. Today I will guide you through this four-game slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST with Chelsea, -275 the biggest favorites.
Please Be Advised: This writeup does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 36
[H] Brentford (+125) vs [A] Southampton (+220): Total: u2.5
Both Brentford and Southampton are neck and neck at points and very close in goals and assists for as well. The hosts are coming off two straight matches without a goal and most recently a 3-0 loss to Manchester United. While the visitors are coming in on the back of their second loss in their last three matches – losses to Burnley and Crystal Palace –. This meeting should be relatively straightforward with the hosts having a slight edge due to the home crowd.
Expected Outcome: 0-0
Forwards
Ivan Toney-DK $8.4K || FD $17
If any striker is going to produce in this match, it will surely be Toney. The forward is one of the main reasons that Brentford was promoted this season to the Premier League and he continues to produce at the same standards. In his last five appearances, he is averaging, 3.8 shots and 1.4 crosses per 90 minutes in all competitions. Southampton’s defense has been lackluster at best lately and this will provide Toney the perfect chance to get back in the goal column.
Midfielders
Christian Eriksen-DK $8.5K || FD $18
This meeting provides two of the best midfielder options on the slate with Christian Eriksen and James Ward-Prowse. However, JWP is more expensive than Eriksen so we will side with the home offense. Eriksen is performing as if he never took off time from the game for health reasons. In his last five matches, he is averaging, 2.6 shots, 10.0 crosses, 1.0 tackles and 1.0 interceptions per 90 minutes in all competitions. The only difference between Eriksen and Ward-Prowse is, that Ward-Prowse takes penalties. Otherwise, Eriksen has been the more consistent producer.
Defenders
Mohammed Salisu-DK $2.9K || FD $13
None of the strikers are very appealing from a DraftKings standpoint. However, if you look at them from the FanDuel lens, Salisu should be a dominant force this weekend. He will be playing against both Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo. If he can find a rhythm, he will thrive against the strikers. In Salisu’s last five games, he is averaging, 0.4 tackles and 2.8 tackles per 90 minutes in all competitions.
[H] Burnley (+205) vs [A] Aston Villa (+145): Total: u2.5
Aston Villa is more of an attacking threat than the last three opponents Burnley has played – won all three –. However, Villa's consistency has been a question all season, going matches without goals and then breaking out for three in one match. Both clubs still need results after Everton's shock win over Chelsea and this meeting may ultimately result in a draw.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Ollie Watkins-DK $7.6K || FD $18
Burnley target-man Wout Weghorst DK $5.1 || FD was going to be highlighted here for the fact that he is much cheaper than Watkins. However, Watkins ultimately has the sheer shot volume to at least provide a floor – over his last five matches, he is averaging 3.4 shots and 1.0 tackles per 90 minutes in all competitions –. Due to the overall nature of the game environment and both teams vying for points, it is a much safer play to go for the floor. However, if you end up needing less salary at a position with legitimate upside, Weghorst is still an option too.
Midfielders
Dwight McNeil-DK $7.2K || FD $12
This is another "who is more viable play" with Burnley winger Dwight McNeil just outshining Aston Villa's Philippe Coutinho DK $7.7 || FD $. Although they are roughly the same salary, McNeil offers a much safer floor on both platforms whereas Coutinho's value mainly comes from FanDuel's platform. Over McNeil's last five matches, he is averaging 1.8 shots, 0.8 chances created, 4.4 crosses, 1.6 tackles won and 0.6 interceptions per 90 minutes in all competitions. As long as teammate Ashley Westwood continues to be out, McNeil will have the majority of set-pieces if not all of them.
Defenders
Ashley Young-DK $4.6K || FD $7
At the time of writing, Young is projected to start in place of teammate Lucas Digne. Either way, whichever wingback does start, they will see a share of the set-pieces. Burnley is in the bottom-half of the league in crosses against, hence the Aston Villa wingback choice. In Young's last five appearances – two starts –, he is averaging 0.2 shots, 0.8 chances created, 4.0 crosses, 0.8 tackles won and 0.8 interceptions per 90 minutes in all competitions.
[H] Chelsea (-275) vs [A] Wolverhampton (+775) Total: o2.5
Both clubs are in dire form and more so Chelsea because of the expectations. Although, there won't be much of a change here. Neither club can score as of late with Wolverhampton losing their last three matches and going goalless in each one, while Chelsea has managed to score twice in their last three matches, winning, drawing and losing respectively. The hosts still have the talent to take all three points and they have the advantage of playing at Stanford Bridge. However, Wolverhampton has kept them at bay in their last two meetings and it remains to be seen if Chelsea can finally break through again.
Expected Outcome: 1-0 Chelsea
Forwards
Timo Werner-DK $6.9K || FD $17
There are not any strikers worthy of highlighting in this matchup, however, we need one and it will be insanely out of form Timo Werner. The reasoning behind this choice is that he once was one of the top scorers in the Bundesliga competing with the likes of Robert Lewandowski and company. That is not an easy feat, but he managed to do it playing for RB Leipzig. Werner has yet to show that goal production in the Premier League but it is a matter of time until he finally explodes onto the scene. In his last five matches, he is averaging 2.4 shots, 1.0 created chances and 1.4 crosses per 90 minutes in all competitions.
Midfielders
Mason Mount-DK $8.7K || FD $20
Mount is the most viable option for midfield here. The midfielder has struggled at times this season because of both wingbacks and teammates Marcos Alonso and Reece James vulturing set-pieces – the majority of Mount's value is set-pieces –. The best part about Mount is his positioning on the field which only boosts his FanDuel value too. If Chelsea scores a goal, Mount is almost surely a part of the attack one way or another, making him a key part of the team. In his last five appearances, he is averaging 3.2 shots, 3.4 created chances and 5.4. crosses per 90 minutes in all competitions.
Defenders
Marcos Alonso-DK $7K || FD $15
Alonso offers an insane amount of utility on both sides of the pitch, thanks to the formation Chelsea plays – 3-5-2 –. The Spaniard also has double-digit fantasy points in his last 5 matches. During that timeframe he is averaging 2.4 shots, 2.6 created chances, 6.0 crosses, 1.8 tackles won and 0.8 interceptions per 90 minutes in all competitions. Wolverhampton does not give ground easily to opposing clubs, but Alonso will be a big part of the driving force doing exactly that.
[H] Crystal Palace (-155) vs [A] Watford (+420) Total: o2.5
This match is a do-or-die scenario for the Hornets after struggling all season to take points. The visitors only have four matches left and they would need to win each match, along with other outcomes going their way to avoid relegation. Unfortunately for them, Crystal Palace is in fine form at home right now, undefeated in their last six. This meeting may be one of the clearer outcomes right away with the hosts taking all three points.
Expected Outcome: Crystal Palace 2-0
Forwards
Wilfried Zaha-DK $9.9K || FD $18
Zaha will once again be the featured striker in a Palace matchup. The winger is currently averaging 3.2 shots, 1.6 created chances, 0.8 crosses and 0.6 tackles won per 90 minutes in all competitions over the last five matches. Watford is not a sound defense by any means and they are at the bottom-half of the league for goals and shots against. This is a perfect opportunity for Zaha to continue his incredible form.
Midfielders
Imran Louza-DK $4.1K || FD $9
Louza is the ultimate cheat code for the slate today. The midfielder has been taking the majority of the set-pieces with teammate Kiko Femenia taking the rest. However, Louza’s salary is very affordable and it can leave plenty of space to pay up elsewhere. Crystal Palace is not a stronghold even when playing at home, making way for Louza to get value. However, his value will truly come from FanDuel’s platform which rewards defensive midfielders much greater.
Defenders
Kiko Femenia-DK $4.4K || FD $9
As just mentioned in the above highlight for teammate Imran Louza, Femenia also takes set-pieces for the Hornets. The only issue with his value though is the bulk of it comes from his wing play. In his last five matches, he is averaging, 0.8 created chances, 5.0 crosses, 0.2 tackles won and 0.4 interceptions per 90 minutes in all competitions. The optimistic part about this matchup and why he got highlighted is because Watford will need to be on the attack the entire match in hopes of winning. This will lock Femenia in a driving role for their attack and he should build enough value just off that basis.
Goalies
Edouard Mendy-DK $5.8K || FD $14
Mendy will be the “lock” at goalkeeper for the slate due to the sheer chances of winning and the lack of threat that Wolverhampton’s offense provides. The hope is that Mendy can finally bounce back and claim the clean sheet though after he conceded 7 goals over his last three outings.
Nick Pope-DK $4.6K || FD $10
If you do not want to pay all the way up for keeper on the slate, you can drop down and pivot to Nick Pope who continues to carry Burnley out of the relegation zone. In Pope’s last three matches, he has collected clean sheets in two of the three matches, while making a total of nine saves. Aston Villa surely has the talent up front to do damage against a defense and goalie, but they possess such inconsistency that they cannot be trusted.
Expected Corner Takers:
Brentford: Eriksen
Southampton: James Ward-Prowse
Burnley: McNeil/Brownhill
Aston Villa: McGinn
Chelsea: Mount/Alonso
Wolverhampton: Moutinho/Ait-Nouri
Crystal Palace: Gallagher/Olise
Watford: Louza/Femenia
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
