RADIO
The English Premier League is back and we continue into the second week of the restarted season with four games in four days from Saturday through to Tuesday. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. The FA Cup quarter-finals also take place over the weekend so I'll offer a quick prediction on those four games too. Here's how we have started off:
- Locks - 10 out of 21
- Parlays - 2 out of 7
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Given players haven't been able to do much in the way of team training until early June, there is also some added volatility to the remainder of games this season. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is also something which could have an unknown level of impact so it'll be a wise move to take things even more slow and sensible to start things off. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Wolves @ Aston Villa - 7:30 am ET (Saturday 6/27/20)
Wolves 6th - 49 pts
Burnley 19th - 27 pts
It's been a rough couple of days for the picks. Although the games have gone how we expected them to, for the most part, it's become more clearer what impact the 3-month hiatus has had on teams so we'll adapt accordingly here.
Wolves have won both games since the league's resumption without conceding a goal. Both of those games were against teams who are in relegation trouble and that continues Saturday with a visit to local rivals Aston Villa. Although not the first game you think of when you speak of a local derby, this game has plenty of history and is normally a physical contest. The reverse fixture earlier this season saw Wolves win 2-1 and a total of seven yellow cards shown.
This will be Aston Villa's fourth game in 11 days since the league restarted and they've only managed two draws and a loss in the three games. They need to start winning as the games begin to run out if they are to stay up. A fortunate draw against Sheffield United was followed by a tough loss to Chelsea and a battling draw at Newcastle so they are showing fight and as long as they don't feel too fatigued after this run of games, should have shaken the rust off.
Wolves have only failed to score against a team outside the top-5 once all season and Aston Villa's league-worst defense shouldn't stop them here despite showing some improvements since the restart. Although Wolves have yet to concede in their two games during this period, Aston Villa should have enough to find the back of the net here and if they are behind, they will need to really push for a goal as it's coming to the point they can't afford to not get anything out of games. I think Wolves have too much quality and win here but the line isn't great in what should be a game tighter than the bookies have it so I'm hedging that both teams find the way to goal in this game.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 2 Wolves (Pinnacle odds +775 )
Betting Pick:
- Team Props- Both Teams to Score Yes @ +106 (Pinnacle)
Southampton @ Watford - 11:30 pm ET (Sunday 6/28/20)
Southampton 14th - 37 pts
Watford 16th - 28pts
Southampton has had mixed fortunes since the league resumption, beating Norwich 3-0 before losing at home to Arsenal 2-0 on Thursday. Southampton's away record is better than their home record so that may come as no surprise. Southampton is likely already safe from relegation but a defeat here would throw some doubt on that. They'll be heavily reliant on top-scorer Danny Ings to get a goal here as he's responsible for 16 of their 38 league goals this season like he did in their 2-1 win over Watford earlier this season.
Watford followed up a last-minute point salvaging performance against Leicester with a dud of a performance at Burnley which resulted in a 1-0 defeat. Goals continue to be hard to come by for the league's second-lowest scorers and while they do look more assured defensively, Southampton is a team that can leak goals and Watford have to target all three points here. That's not to say they'll get them on Sunday and it should be a tight game decided by the odd goal if either team is able to find a winner.
Generally in close games like this, set-pieces can play a crucial role and I think both teams will see a handful of corners with clear goal-scoring opportunities being hard to come by.
Score prediction: Watford 1 - 1 Southampton (Pinnacle odds - +550)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Total Goals under 3.5 & Total Corners over 8.5 @ -137 (Draftkings)
Feel free to parlay both of these games too.
FA Cup Quarter Finals
As mentioned, the FA Cup reaches the quarter-final stage this weekend so here's a quick look at the fixtures and what I foresee as the outcomes. Each tie must be decided on the day so extra-time and penalty kicks will be in play if the scores are tied after 90 minutes. If you are betting on the result, make sure you check if you're betting on the 90-minute result or the winner of the tie.
Manchester United @ Norwich - 12:30 pm ET (Saturday 6/27/20)
Manchester United have looked good the last couple of games while Norwich has been all but relegated. Norwich could play with a bit more freedom here with nothing to lose but I expect Manchester United to win inside 90-minutes quite comfortably.
Score prediction: Norwich 1 - 3 Manchester United
Arsenal @ Sheffield United - 8:00 am ET (Sunday 6/28/20)
Sheffield United have really struggled since the league's resumption and have failed to score in all three games. They'll still fancy their chances against an Arsenal side who picked up their first away league win in 2020 on Thursday. This could go either way with the tie dependent on what Arsenal team turns up on the day.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 - 1 Arsenal
Chelsea @ Leicester City - 11:00 am ET (Sunday 6/28/20)
Chelsea's win against Manchester City secured Liverpool their first league title in for 30 years and they'll want to push on for some silverware of their own. Leicester hasn't quite got going this month with two draws against bottom-half teams. I expect both teams score here but Chelsea has more match-winners in their side.
Score prediction: Leicester 1 - 2 Chelsea (After Extra Time)
Manchester City @ Newcastle United - 1:30 pm ET (Sunday 6/28/20)
Manchester City could look to take out their frustrations from Thursday on Newcastle. If they do, this could get pretty ugly. Newcastle's have picked up four points since the league restart and that should be enough to keep them up in the league but they still don't look convincing and if they go behind early, the floodgates may well and truly open.
Score prediction: Newcastle 0 - 3 Manchester City
FA Cup Parlays:
- Manchester United to win (90 minutes), Leicester City/Chelsea both teams to score Yes, Manchester City Handicap -1.5 @ +247 (Draftkings)
- Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City all to advance @ +312 (Draftkings)
Good luck with those EPL (and FA Cup) bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
