Ervin Santana (SP, MIN) - Waiver Wire Pickup

BALLER MOVE: 12+ Team Leagues and NL-Only Leagues

OWNED IN: 28% of Flea Flicker Leagues

ANALYSIS: Starting pitcher Ervin Santana began 2015 off on the wrong foot, receiving an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. While he came back strong when he did make his season debut, Santana's final line of seven wins, a 4.00 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 108 innings was hardly worth the wait. On top of that, his peripherals showed slight signs of degradation, with Santana's HR/9--his kryptonite--increasing from 0.7 in 2014 to 1.0 in 2015, and his K/9 dropping from 8.1 in 2014 to 6.8 in 2015.

So it came as no surprise this year to find Santana near the bottom of most drafts or starting as a free agent. But after his first four starts of 2016, Santana has looked more like his 2014 self, going 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 20 innings. His K/9 is healthy again at 8.1, and he has only allowed one home run so far. While his ERA is destined to inch towards 4.00, if Santana can continue to keep his strikeouts up, the Twins should provide enough offense for him to win at least 12 games, if not more.

That said, Santana's next start on the road against the Nationals looks like a disaster in the making, and he should be benched. He has a career 4.50 ERA against the Nationals, including a 5.38 ERA in five 2014 starts as a member of the Braves in his last exposure to them. Santana's schedule then opens up to favorability with starts against the Tigers (nine wins, 3.27 ERA in 16 career starts) and the White Sox (six wins, 3.84 ERA in 18 starts).