RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! EUM is back, and we'll see each group finish out on their games, breaking things down to three separate two-game slates. Today is Group C's turn on center stage with the first seed from France, Misfits Premier, the second seed from Spain Vodafone Giants, the play in rep from the Ultraliga 7more7 Pompa Team, and the Greek champs We Love Gaming all thrown into the ring for six different games featuring these four teams.
After each group finishes up, we'll proceed to the bracket stage, where the group's top seeds face the twos from the other groups in the best of three elimination matches. The Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way, so stay tuned!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the EU Masters slates on DraftKings that lock at 12:00 PM ET on Friday, September 11th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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12:00 PM: We Love Gaming vs. Misfits Premier (-750)
The scheduling of the EU Masters is a bit screwy. Each regional league is autonomous with little input from Riot, and so they set their schedules. Ultraliga had a two-week break after their playoffs, but for the Prime League and NCL, they went regular split into playoffs into EUM without a break. LVP SLO (Spain) took a break in the middle of its playoffs to start EUM, and LFL, strangest of all, paused their regular summer split to play a qualifier tournament with the top five teams to determine EUM representatives. During our two week break after the first round-robin of EUM, LFL teams went back to play their regular season.
This Misfits premier squad is duplicitous; within EUM, they are 3-0 with an average game time of 32 minutes and a gold lead at 15 of 3700 gold. However, at home in the LFL, they sport a 6-6 record, barely holding onto fifth place. MSFP average game time goes up to 33:30 with an average gold differential at 15 of -700. So since going 3-0 at EUM, Misfits have fallen back to earth within their home league, going 2-3 in the LFL since break began. I think the reality of this Misfits squad lies somewhere in between the two extremes, but it's not something I'm going to concern myself with too much for this particular matchup. We Love Gaming gave up 28 kills to MSF in the first round-robin and 22 to VG, and this should be another premium spot for this Misfits team. WLG averages nearly 20 deaths in their losses, but MSF isn't far behind, with almost 19 deaths in their losses. Even though MSF isn't truly the juggernaut they've shown throughout the tournament, I think they cruise past WLG here to an easy win.
Top MSFP Plays:
- Kirei - JNG
- Ronaldo - MID
- Targamas - SUP
- Jezu - ADC
12:50 PM: 7more7 Pompa Team vs. Vodafone Giants (-400)
Another team that isn't quite what they've shown us DFSers in the tournament is this PT7 side. They finished second in the regular split and only lost to Rogue and K1ck in the playoffs. They went 4-2 in group play during play-ins and swept out the Italian second seed Racoon in their knockout match. On the main stage thus far, we have seen them struggle to open the groups 0-3. Giants are the second seed from the LVP SLO (Spain), where they finished second in the regular season just behind Movistar Riders. G2 Arctic then knocked them from the playoffs in a tight best of five that went the distance, and luckily for this Giants squad, the SLO qualifies its EUM representatives through their regular-season records, or else they and not G2 may have been the ones bounced in play-ins. So I think you see what I'm getting at here, politicking for another big underdog win. Historically Spain has been the stronger region than Poland, although the Ultraliga qualified two teams for the bracket to SuperLiga's one in spring.
The first match between these two was a close affair, and VG was able to close out with their excellent objective play and strangle PT7 from the map. The final score was 12-8 in 32 minutes, but up until VG captured the dragon soul at 25 minutes, the game was still up in the air with PT7 ahead in kills. The Blue side win rate in the tournament is still at 57% after a fun day yesterday, and we will see PT7 gain the advantage of the first pick for this one. If they can keep themselves even in gold through the first 15 minutes, they have a shot at picking up the win. PT7 has better first turret numbers and much more focus on the rift herald and the top side.
VG counter with a more robust bot side, better vision numbers, drake percentage, and baron control. I'll take the underdogs here to get on the board and pick up their first win, but VG is favored for a reason. It's hard to pick against a higher seed from a stronger region, but I think that PT7 are hungry for that first win on the main stage and have ways to make it work. If you're making multiple lineups for the early slate, I think you should split your exposure here and play a little of both sides. This game will be the slower of the two matches, so I'd look at small stacks and team slots. PT7 has a bit more upside than VG's, with the Giants giving up 18.4 kills in their losses compared to 15.75 for PT.
Top PT7 Plays:
- Defles - ADC
- Pyrka - SUP
- Sinmivak - TOP
- Bruness - JNG
Top VG Plays:
- PrettyGRE - MID
- Lamabear - JNG
- Attila - ADC
- Erdote - SUP
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1:40 PM: Misfits Premier (-190) vs. Vodafone Giants
This game should showcase the two teams moving on from group C, so we should all pay close attention so that when the bracket stage is upon us, we have a good gauge of what these teams can do. In the first match between the two, we saw MSFP put the pedal to the medal after a botched dive top lane by VG. I thought it was odd for VG to try to put the focus on to Th3Antionio instead of sticking him on tank duty to hide his shortcomings. Misfits were able to punish that mistake to the extreme with a 16-4 win in 31 minutes. I've been touting the blue side for most of the season, but I think we might see the move to red help the Giants in this game. They were better with a counter pick this split in the SLO, and Misfits to have a lower win rate on blue than red.
For VG to win this, I think they go back to what works for them, Th3Antonio on tank duty, and focusing on objective and map plays. If Misfits want to sweep the matchup and likely lock in first in the group, they have to keep playing with the urgency that they have shown at EUM. I think I'm leaning to the underdogs here because I don't think they should be dogs. I'll reference the bizarre scheduling from the LFL; MSF got hot at the right time to pick up the number one seed in the qualification tournament. After speedrunning the first round-robin, Misfits have come back to earth in the LFL regular season. I think the move to red and VG focus on their objective and vision advantage should be enough to grind out the win in this one.
This second slate on DK is tight all around, and I see merit in playing both sides. I think your stacks will vary based on how you fall for the winners. If you're with me on the Giants upset train, we can make them the smaller stack just because of how I see their win playing out. In a Misfit's victory, they could be stacked either way with the second game since their playstyle would net a higher upside.
Top VG Plays:
- Lamabear - JNG
- PrettyGRE - MID
- Attila - ADC
- Erdote - SUP
- Giants Team
Top MSFP Plays:
- Ronaldo - MID
- Kirei - JNG
- Targamas - SUP
- Jezu - ADC
2:30 PM: 7more7 Pompa Team (-125) vs. We Love Gaming
I was dead wrong about this matchup during the first round-robin, but if at first you don't succeed... try, try again. I underestimated both the Greek champs and the blue side buff in these teams' first showdown. With both teams showing love for the top side of the map, we could see this match decided before baron even spawns. In the first match, WLG was able to control the pit and collect both rift heralds, turning both into turrets razed and gold lead gained. Within the GLL, WLG had a 75% rift herald take, and PT7 has a 72.2 herald percentage within the Ultraliga. This focus tells me that the teams will clash around the 8-minute mark again, looking to take down this fundamental early objective and whoever comes away with it or the surrounding fight will have a head start. With the blue side start leading to easy access to the herald pit, I imagine that we see PT7 take that early lead, unlike the last game.
Like the last game, I'll side with the rep from the stronger region give me Pompa Team 7 to pick up the win over WLG. WLG is a fast-paced team both in victory and defeat; they average 23 kills in their wins and 19.7 deaths in their losses, so be sure to factor that into your builds. Plus, it bears mentioning again what an outlier WLG's jungler Warden is; he went 7-1-3 on Graves in the last match between these two. He has the second-highest kill share of any jungler at the event, and so if he is allowed to create a lead, he could undo anything that I or PT7 have planned for slate number two.
Top 7M7 Plays:
- Defles - ADC
- Pyrka - SUP
- Sinmivak - TOP
- Bruness - JNG
3:20 PM: Misfits Premier (-900) vs. 7more7 Pompa Team
I've already pushed my luck about it as far as it can go with the upsets today so that I won't try it again. PT7 move to the red side in this rematch from two weeks ago when MSF triumphed 20-14. PT7 will look to scrap at the rift herald pit, so I expect them to look for an early game jungler for Bruness, and MSF has had great success upping their aggression within the tournament. I'm fairly certain unless PT7 ban or pick the Nidalee away from Kirei, they will be in trouble as he is 7-0 on the champ this season.
Overall I feel the mid jungle duo of Ronaldo and Kirei is too strong for PT7 to match. Misfits haven't lost a beat in losing Lider to the Prime League as Ronaldo has filled the void admirably and actually exceeds his predecessor by 2% in the kill share department sporting the highest KS numbers of any player at the tournament. This third set of matches features both the more significant league reps showing down smaller regions squads and will likely be very chalky. As I mentioned, we Love Gaming are a bit more action-packed than PT7, so I think I'll look for smaller stacks and teams from this side.
Top MSFP Plays:
- Ronaldo - MID
- Kirei - JNG
- Targamas - SUP
- Jezu - ADC
4:10 PM: Vodafone Giants (-475) vs. We Love Gaming
Vodafone, to me, should be bigger favorites than MSF are for this third slate. Again I think that MSF is being overrated due to their previous EUM performance and not necessarily their total body of work. Giants won handily last time in what started as a back and forth affair but quickly got out of hand for the Greek squad. PrettyGRE is from Greece hence the Gamertag obviously, and I think he will look to show out again versus his countrymen. His Akali was 8-2-6, and he could influence the game more so than Pretty was with his Syndra. VG should be able to control the objectives again and wear down WLG in the way they do. WLG will look to keep fighting and skirmishing to try to find their way back into the map.
Giants took this one down 22-15 last time out, and with the pace that the Greek side plays with, I'd look for them to repeat that feat, so I'll take my bigger stacks from this side of the slate. I didn't list him among the favs, and I've flamed him a few times these last few weeks, but boy, did Th3Antonio burn me in the first match between these two. His Kennan was spectacular, collecting 16 assists en route to a 37 DKP performance.
Top VG plays:
- Lamabear - JNG
- PrettyGRE - MID
- Attila - ADC
- Erdote - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - MSF, PT7, and Giants all go 2-1 today, with MSF and VG taking one and two in the group to move on to the bracket stage. Picking PT7 to go 2-1 is probably a bit aggro, but they are a team that I think is better than they've shown while I think MSF is worse than they have shown.
- Wherever WLG goes, so goes my big stacks is how I think I'm approaching these slates with 23 kills in their wins and nearly 20 deaths in their losses the Greek squad is the pace up match up for the day.
- We've seen in the past that these BO1 can bring out some high variance so that just because WLG should lose all three doesn't mean they will, or more likely, just because one side of the slate looks juicer on paper doesn't mean it will finish up that way. Don't be afraid to mix it up with a captain from your small stack or to big stack the game that's looking like a slower matchup.
- Three weeks til WORLDS everyone, let's get out there and fill these contests so that FD can bring back intra-league league and that DK can buff the competitions up for 9/25 when the play-in stage starts. Just save some tickets for me!
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