EU Masters DFS Picks (9/16/20) - DraftKings League of Legends Daily Fantasy

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! European Masters are back for the bracket stage as we start to eliminate teams and work our way towards our eventual champion.

As the World Championship nears and the end of the season approaches, I want to thank again everyone who joined me this year. I know many of you only decided to get into League of Legends Dfs as a necessity when traditional sports were on hiatus, but that's how I started too four years ago wondering what this was in my Draftkings app and why it locked at 3 a.m. Thanks for coming, thanks even more for staying, and I look forward to Worlds and next year and beyond. Hopefully, LOL Dfs has grown on you, and it will continue to grow on both DK and FD so that you come back to see me again in the future.

Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the EU Masters slates on DraftKings that lock at 12:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 16th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.

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12:00 PM: AGO Rogue (-245) vs. Misfits Premier 

Rogue survived tiebreaker Sunday, persevering to take over the first seed in group B. Misfits finished second in group C going 4-2 in group play and splitting their series with eventual group winner Movistar Riders. Misfits have been excellent in the EU Masters tournament, but are an inconsistent team. As I mentioned before, they are .500 in their home region, the LFL. AGO Rogue has been consistently excellent, winning the Ultraliga to qualify for EU Masters, their spring performance, and so far this summer at EUM.

Looking at each team's summer split stats as it gives us a bigger sample size than just that of the tournament, we see that Rogue shapes up to be the better team. They have advantages in first blood, rift heralds, dragons, barons, gold differential at 15 minutes, and vision score. The statistics from within the tournament itself are much closer to the teams. Rogue still leads the Misfits in barons, drakes, heralds, and first turrets, but MSF lead in first blood, gold differential, and vision score. Misfits can play with anyone, but Rogue has been the better, more consistent squad all year long. That carries a lot of weight for me, and I like the Polish side to prevail here. POLSKA GORUM returns for a summer edition; Rogue will be motivated by their third-place finish in spring when they were narrowly bested by another French team, the eventual champions LDLC. I think Rogue wins here in a likely sweep, but Misfits can play with anyone and will be the lowest owned team on the slate by my calculation. So if you want to shoot your shot on a big dog, this will be the best leverage spot. RGE doesn't give up much in their losses, only averaging 14.5 deaths per, so if you play MSF, it's probably only small stacks and the team slot. MSF is looser with their play and surrenders nearly 19 deaths in their losses; RGE will happily scoop those up as they average almost 21 kills in a win to be my favorite stack on the day.

Top RGE Plays:

• Zanzahra - JNG
• Woolite - ADC
• Trymbi - SUP
• Czekolad - MID

 

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3:00 p.m.: Mousesports (-305) vs. K1CK Neosurf

Mousesports likely has a bone to pick with the Polish side; in the spring, they went 5-1 in group play only to be upset 2-0 by AGO Rogue. In a severe case of deja vu all over again, they have gone 5-1 in group play to face a Polish squad in the bracket stage's opening round. K1ck and their ADC Pukki Style were the hit of the spring edition of Eu Masters, making it to the finals before falling 3-0 to LDLC. K1 and LDLC were in the same group for summer, and both finished 4-2 with LDLC again sweeping the Polish team, but maybe more importantly, K1 took both of their games from the Prime League's representative in their group S04. Mouse gelled in the Prime League playoffs showcasing their super team status much better than they had during the regular season. They have carried that momentum through to the Eu Masters stage and look primed for a deep run.

Looking at the stats from within the tournament, we can see that Mouse may indeed be ready for that run. They hold the lead over K1 in every major statistical category, save a slight vision score lead for K1. Looking back further to that playoff run from Mouse versus K1's Ultraliga season, things do even up a bit. K1 holds the edge in gold differential, first blood, and a slight lead in drakes. Mouse has the edge in barons, heralds, first turret, and a small vision advantage. With these statistical advantages and a roster with ex-LEC level players up and down it the German superteam seems primed to take this one. If, however, you like the Poles, I have some good news for you. The meh version of Mousesports is still in there somewhere, as they finished tied for fourth in the regular split of the Prime League. It wasn't until the playoffs that they fully activated, and with Mystiques on the roster now, K1 has former LEC talent of their own. I think that Mouse wins this one, but I'm not all in, so if you're looking for a less risky dog play, I think this is it despite the odds. The Mouse side has a bit more upside than does K1, even if it's not quite as much as Rogue. Both K1 and Mouse average about 18 deaths in their losses; Mouse wins harder, averaging 19.5 kills in their wins compared to 17 for K1.

Top Mouse Plays:

• LIDER - MID
• Obsess - JNG
• Jeskla - ADC
• Promisq - SUP

Top K1 Plays:

• Shlatan - JNG
• Pukki Style - ADC
• Mystiques - SUP

 

Summary

1. TLDR - I'm going full chalk donkey and expecting both favorites to advance. I've been down on MSF for their regular-season split all tournament, and I think this is the spot where it pays off. Oddly I have forgiven Mouse for their chaotic split primarily because of their excellent run in playoffs and good form here at EUM.
2. Rogue should be the best spot for offense of the four teams today, with Mouse just behind them, followed by K1 and finally MSF battling uphill against Rogue's meager death total in losses.
3. Best of three again today, so I expect things to normalize and better teams to show themselves. That Mousesports roster is jammed with talent, and I think LIDER smurfs versus this level of competition.
4. One more EUM slate left after this for the semi-finals, and then we're on to Worlds, and I know you might be getting sick of me talking about it incessantly. If you have some spare time today, look up the opening ceremonies for the past three world championships and compare them to, say, the super bowl halftime show, and you'll see a small bit of why I'm so stoked for this event.

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