EU Masters DFS Picks (9/19/20) - DraftKings League of Legends Daily Fantasy

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! Wednesday's slate was a bit of a frustrating one, as I called both games correctly, but had my stacks wrong and couldn't post a profit with Rogue cruising to a 2-0 over Misfits even with the games not played bonus weren't able to outscore Mousesports.

The final DFS slate of the European Masters for the year is upon us. These slates have been a blast and I hope you have been following my picks throughout the tournament. The volatile nature of these matches makes them a ton of fun for GPPs, especially when we nail some upsets.

Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the EU Masters slates on DraftKings that lock at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 19th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.

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12:00 PM: Team GamerLegion vs. LDLC OL

See, what did I tell you, Team GamerLegion, the EU regional scene's Invictus gaming? GL speed runs the regular season in the Prime League, crashes, and burns the playoffs to set everyone's expectations lower and then makes them even more down by sleepwalking through week one only to go 3-0 week two to a tiebreak then through to semis. I'm not the only one left scratching their head here, right? So now having dispatched both of the remaining Spanish teams, GL looks to banish the final LFL rep in LDLC who themselves have had to work their way through the play-ins. Unfortunately, these two did not run into each other in the play-in stage, so we don't have any direct competition to draw our conclusion.

Looking at the two teams in tournament stats, we can see that LDLC has been the better early game team with gold differential at 15 minutes, rift herald, first turret, and first blood advantages. GamerLegion only has the lead in dragon takes, while LDLC has barons in their pocket and slightly better vision numbers.

So statistically, it looks like LDLC should take this matchup, but I think that Team GamerLegion has a few tricks up their sleeve for which LDLC may not be ready. Most of these wildcards come from Hjarnan's champion pool. LDLC has not faced a mage in the bot lane since last year; it is not a popular strategy in the LFL. Hjarnan's ability to play Ziggs, Heimerdinger, Zilean, or Vel'Koz will throw LDLC a major curveball. It will undoubtedly affect the drafts significantly, and that frees GL up to select more meta power picks for other positions. Hjarnan is also able to play meta champs such as Jhin or Senna very effectively, and so he could draw mage bans and play standard marksmen.

With GamerLegion being on the blue side, they will have too much draft capital for the side of LDLC. LDLC will be going from the absolute comfort and familiarity of GamersOrigin to the dark technologies of Team GamerLegion, and I think that will be a deciding factor in this match. This match should be the better one for fantasy purposes, with both teams averaging 25 deaths in their losses and nearly 20 kills in their wins. So if you stick with the stats and go LDLC or follow my draft kingdom theory and stack up GL, make sure to load up on it.

Top GL plays:

• Rabble - JNG
• Hjarnan - ADC
• Visdom - SUP
• Nite - MID

 

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3:00 p.m.: AGO Rogue vs. Mousesports (-305) 

Mousesports will be looking for revenge in this match, as it was AGO Rogue who knocked them out of EU Masters in the opening round of bracket play in the spring. They warmed up by sending the other qualified Polish team, K1ck Neosurf, home on Wednesday and now want to finish their revenge tour by setting up a possibly all Prime League final with Team GamerLegion.

I feel that this match is more challenging to call than the first both teams have been statistically dominant within the tournament. The squads first blood percentages are equal, Rogue holds a 9% lead in first turrets, and a 2% lead in rift herald takes. Mouse holds a 16% edge in dragons, but Rogue has yet to lose a baron this tournament. The vision numbers are also nearly identical, and overall I feel like Rogue has a very slight edge in the stats. They have also been the more consistent of the two teams on the year, as Mouse struggled during the summer split in the Prime League. Since then, Mouse has been on fire, dropping only one game in four series during the playoffs to be the number one team in their region.

Mouse is also the more talented of the two teams with three ex LEC level players on their side, and they come from the historically stronger region. If you like narratives, Mouse has that on their side and seek revenge for their loss in spring. I give Mouse a very slight edge in the match, if for no other reason than they will be playing from the blue side. It is one of several small factors in their favor that could tip the matchup to their side. It's reasonable to split this series in your DK lineups to hedge on such an even matchup.

Top Mouse Plays:

• LIDER - MID
• Obsess - JNG
• Tolkin - TOP
• Mousesports team

Top Rogue Plays:

• Woolite - ADC
• Trymbi - SUP
• Szygenda - TOP
• AGO Rogue team

 

Summary

1. TLDR - it will be an all Prime League final as both GamerLegion and Mouse out talent their opponents to victory. Draft advantage will play a part in both series, with the Prime League squads benefitting from the edge of the first pick from the blue side, which carries a 55% win rate at the tournament.
2. The first match should be the better match for fantasy purposes, with both teams being more active in both their wins and losses. I will be sticking with the numbers and loading up on my plays from that game set.
3. That is what bit me on the latest EU Masters slate, I played it by the numbers, and the other series went the distance with three very competitive games. I think the numbers for the first set are too big to ignore this time out, with both teams over 25 deaths in their losses. Mouse and Rogue sit and 17.75 and 14.5 deaths, respectively, and I don't think that will be enough to overcome GL and LDLC.
4. Saturday's is the final slate of games before Worlds kicks off in one week. I can't wait to meet you back here for some more international action, so until then, let's TAKE OVER this EUM slate!

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