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Welcome back RotoBallers to my League of Legends DFS column! We will continue to extend our analysis for LoL DFS across different leagues and sites, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. Thanks once again for the outpouring of support from the DFS and eSports communities. I can't thank you enough for the kind words on Twitter, and your support has afforded me the opportunity to write about something I love every day.
Welcome to the second day of the main stage of the EU Masters tournament, and I'm sure the thought has crossed your mind, "What exactly is this?" Think of it as EuroLeague NBA meets Triple-A ball. The LEC doesn't have an academy league like the LCS does, but what they do have is a vibrant collection of national associations to use as a feeder system for new talent and a retirement home for older. There are six more games on the docket today as the group stage continues. With the DraftKings offering contests for the EU Masters main stage, LPL/LCK playoffs continuing, and MSI right around the corner - it's an excellent time for eSports DFS enthusiasts like myself. Spring season is coming to a close, but there are still some massive contests posted in the FanDuel and DraftKings lobbies, including the 15-dollar Shock Blast that pays 50k to first place!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 12:00 PM ET on Wednesday, April 23rd, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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12:00 PM: BT Excel vs. Gamers Origen (-185)
XL is the second seed from the UK, having lost to FNC in the spring finals 3-2. They cruised through the regular season with a 14-0 record, and they will face a tough test today in GO, the champions of the LFL. The French league has produced some solid teams in the past.
GO is no exception as they finished second in the regular split, but won three playoff series to claim the crown in spring. I've mentioned multiple times before that the stats for these series are going to be skewed. Each of these teams are at or near the top for their regions, and their stats will reflect that. The real comparison comes down to the relative strength of each region.
I think the French champ should take this as they are an excellent team fighting team, and have some good continuity in their bot lane. GO is also priced well for Thursday morning and will fit well with some of the other favorites.
Bluerzor - JNG ($6,600)
The core of this team remains unchanged from last year's EU Masters squad. Bluerzore leads his team with 77% KP and should be a main playmaker for the French champions here. He should have the upper hand vs. Taxer as well, even with the latter having played in the LEC.
XDSMILEY - ADC ($7,400) and HustlinBeasT - SUP ($5,000)
I often mention attacking instability when looking to build DFS lineups, and this will be the opposite of that. I'm promoting stability, XDSMILEY and HustlinBeasT have been together in the bot lane for two years. XD has a 71% KP and leads the team in kill share. This matchup is close with the UK runners up, but the LFL is generally a stronger region. That fact, coupled with the stability of this roster should give them the upper hand.
12:45 PM: YDN Gamers vs. GamerLegion (-260)
You Die Nex, or YDN are the champions of the Italian PG National tournament, and they face off with GamerLegion, the third seed from the German Prime League. GL finished their regular season in sixth place in the league, only barely qualifying for playoffs. In those playoffs, they made some noise and finished third to advance to the play-ins.
In play-in groups, they went 5-1 and then swept their knock out series to advance to the main stage. The Italian league is traditionally middling at best, and their second-place squad lost to eSuba in the play-in stage. I expect GL to take this one as they have faced better far better competition both in-league and in their run through the play-in stage.
I think this could play out similarly to the LDLC vs. Giants match from yesterday, which saw the underdog run out to a sizeable lead but not be able to close. YDN have better early game stats and tend to focus that very heavily.
They should jump out to an early lead, but I don't think they will be able to keep that going through the mid-game allowing GL to claw their way back. Therefore I do like taking some GPP shots on YDN in case they can finish what they start, but mostly I'm on GL here as the representative of a stronger region.
Rabble - JNG ($6,800)
Rabble sits third on the team in KP% behind both members of his bot lane. He has played 16 different champions this split that's good for first on the side. With that kind of flexibility, it allows GamerLegion a lot of leeway in drafts to pinch the Tabasko's champion pool. Being able to push Tabasko off of his favorite Elise, or other early game junglers will disrupt what YDN want to do and give an advantage over to Rabble.
Hjarnan - ADC ($7,600)
Speaking of flexibility, former G2 ADC Hjarnan has played 15 champions good for second on the team. He and his bot lane partner Visdom are tied for the team lead in KP%, and Hjarnan himself holds the lead in kill share. As a former LEC player, Hjarnan is one of the premier players in the EU Masters tournament, and he may be looking to showcase his skills here in hopes of getting one last shot in Europe's top league.
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1:30 PM: Schalke Null Fear Evo (-1400) vs. Singularity
Schalke will be looking to get back on track here after getting upset to start day one by the second seed from Spain Movistar Riders. K1ck destroyed Singularity the Nordic's champions on day one. The S04 loss was a definite surprise, but they surrendered mountain soul into a team comp loaded with tanks.
I don't see them making a similar mistake today, but the problem is they are all priced to match the -1400 line. It will be tough to get the S04 on this slate, but it could be worth it with SNG averaging 23 deaths per loss. The other problem with S04 is they brought in Lurox and Innaxe as substitutes.
Yesterday they did tweet out their starting five, and I'm hoping for that again, but without confirmation, I will likely look elsewhere on Thursday.
Sertuss - MID ($8,200)
We will have to wait for confirmation on the starting JNG and ADC for S04, but Sertuss will play and will have his way with Kroghsen. Sertuss leads the team with 31% kill share, and should be able to produce in a nice matchup on Thursday. Depending on how starters shake out for S04 I would look closely at the JNG and ADC spots, especially if the "backups" from the LEC start as they will save a couple of hundred bucks on DK.
2:15 PM: K1CK Neosurf vs. Moviestar Riders (-325)
Well now, this is interesting, we have yesterday's heroes K1ck as huge dogs to MSR. Movistar the Spanish two seed knocked off S04 in a nice upset yesterday and played some solid league of legends in the process. K1ck the Polish second seed were the heroes of day one with some astronomical fantasy numbers vs. Singularity.
This one is a tough match to call, especially given the way K1ck has performed, but I favor the Spaniards here. K1ck was gifted a dream start from SNG yesterday and was able to take that and run with it. MSR however, tends to play a slower controlled game, and I expect that to win out on Thursday. K1ck did eliminate the three seed from Spain in play-ins defeating Mad Lions Madrid 2-1, but this MSR team also dispatched that ML squad 3-0 in their playoffs.
I fully expect K1 to be the chalk of all chalks tomorrow, and honestly, the line on this game should be much closer. In past Eu Masters tournaments, I have been able to capitalize on other overreactions to the match before. MSR is better laners, and while they don't start games as hot as K1 they won't be as far behind as SNG found themselves.
MSR also has much better dragon control which was on display Wednesday in their match with S04. I won't blame anyone who rides the hot hand in K1 here, but I'll happily fade the public and look to MSR on Thursday.
Xico - MID ($7,400)
Xico might be the MVP for the side of MSR, and his matchup with Matislaw might be the biggest win condition for the side of MSR. He is a Cassiopea main, and if K1 does not ban this champion, they will lose. He has played 12 different heroes this split and is perfectly capable while using other meta champs, so even if they ban out the Cassio, he can still be a thorn in the side of K1. He leads the team in KP% and KS%, and I look for him to be a big part of MSR plans to stop K1's hot run.
JaVaa - ADC ($7,800)
rhuckz - SUP ($5,600)
The bot duo will be busy on Thursday, and I look for them to be equal to the challenge. The way MSR focuses dragons, they will be asked to push their waves and support their jungler and mid as they roam down for those objectives. They are third and fourth on their team in KP%, only a few percentage points behind Elyoya. JaVaa is second in kill share to Xico and likes to go late on Aphelios, Varus, Senna, and even Xayah.
3:00 PM: Fnatic Rising (-575) vs. Energypot Wizards
The Balkan representative did their best vs. Mouz on Wednesday, but you could tell they lacked some essential talent to stay with the top end teams at this competition. FNC looked a bit shaky yesterday vs. a similarly outclassed Esuba squad, but I expect them to have little trouble here.
They are mid-priced as well on DraftKings, so I like them as a starting point for cash lineups on Thursday. I don't know how high of an upside they will bring so I will be wary of them in GPP as I expect this to be a pretty easy win for them.
xMatty - ADC ($8,000)
My favorite play from the FNC side is xMatty, and he leads the team in kill share by a wide margin. He put up a massive 49.6 DKP on Wednesday, and while I don't expect him to go that high again on Thursday, that does give you a taste of his skillset.
3:45 PM: Mouz (-1000) vs. eSuba
The German two seed should have little trouble with two seed from the Czech region. eSuba got dunked on by FNC on Wednesday, and I expect a similar performance from Mouz on Thursday. This match is another spot where I have concern for the Mouz players to reach their upside in a very one-sided affair.
LIDER - MID ($8,000)
This guy has single-handedly won some games for teams even at the LEC level, and I expect him to be in full smurf mode on Thursday. He sits third on the team in KP%, but his 37% kill share leads everyone else by a full ten percent. That's insane. Hopefully, we will get to see him on Irelia before then end of the groups as that is his signature champion.
Summary
- I expect K1CK to be chalky as an underdog for Thursday. I like picking against them to fade the public and back the stronger league.
- YDN and GL should also be close, and I see merit in playing both sides. I expect YDN to have the early advantage, but GL to claw back and win. If YDN closes out unexpectedly, they will be a nice play. GL should score well in fighting back from behind, much like GIA did on Wednesday.
- The other closest matchup XL vs. GO should fall to the side of the French champions, but with some former LEC talent on the XL roster, I can see trying them for GPPs.
- The remaining three matches should be stomps, and while I think they are very safe, I don't know if those teams can hit their upside in such easy matchups. S04 would be my favorite of the three thanks to SNG's play style.
- More GPP action than you can shake a stick at. Comparing these teams across regions can be difficult so don't be afraid to take a risk or two as the best of one format also lends to GPP style.
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Looking Forward
The League of Legends DFS action never stops, and we here at Rotoballer have got you covered. EU masters are in full swing, and we will have two weeks of the group stage to keep us busy while waiting for LPL/LCK playoffs to finish up. Then it will be on to MSI, and it will be summer split before you know it.
Be sure to check back throughout the week as we'll be publishing daily eSports DFS articles, analysis and lineup picks for League Of Legends, Counter Strike, Rocket League and eNASCAR. Thanks for reading, and good luck RotoBallers!
RotoBaller Testimonials
Readers of RotoBaller's eSports DFS articles have been winning money on DraftKings and FanDuel regularly. Some of them are winning contests daily and bringing in some serious cheddar. Check one out below and lots more here!Did you read a RotoBaller article and win too? Send us your screenshots on Twitter @RotoBaller and we'll add it to our winners Hall Of Fame!
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— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) April 16, 2020
